#SuperBowlLX officiating crew cheat sheet
#SBLX will be the
#Patriots third game w' referee Shawn Smith in 2025/26. The most recent was their win vs Houston in the Divisional Round.
The bulk of that crew will return for this game on Sunday
@LevisStadium , giving New England a familiarity advantage
Shawn Smith's regular season crew called a BELOW AVG percentage of overall penalties via OFFENSIVE HOLDING & FALSE START, ranking 16th (of 17) & 12th respectively in those categories
An
#NFL leading 35% of Shawn Smith's penalties resulted in AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS via penalty in 2025 (league avg 28.3%)
This unit assembled to officiate SBLX has members of the top 3 officiating crews awarding AUTOMATIC 1st DOWNS via penalty (in raw per game numbers), with officials from Alex Moore (1) Shawn Hochuli (2) & the aforementioned Smith (3)
To that point, the Patriots/Texans game saw 4 of the 7 penalties called that day result in AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS, w' 3 via DEFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE & 1 for a FACE MASK
The makeup of this crew points to a higher than average likelihood of DEFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE penalties being called, even though it historically hasn't been called much in these big games
The
#Seahawks hold the edge in generating beneficial penalties in this category, primarily due to the presence of JSN
UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS is called at a disproportionately high rate in Super Bowls over the past 15 years. With that in mind, no head referees crews have called more UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS penalties than Shawn Smith's since 2022
Smith ranked 4th in this category in 2025, & the Hochuli crew ranked No.1.
Both have a presence in this game Sunday
THIRD DOWN penalties will be key. Since 2010, just 28.5% of 3rd down penalties in the Super Bowl have been called on the OFFENSE. In every other game over that time, 47.4% of 3rd down infractions were on offensive side of ball
The
@NFL @NFLOfficiating wants an aesthetic product for a huge viewing audience & the offensive units are provided leeway to keep the game moving along w' no interruption
Shawn Smith officiated contests called 44% of 3rd down penalties on the OFFENSE in 2025, the second lowest percentage of any referee
Keep that in mind for THIRD DOWN conversion prop bets
The
@Patriots were an above avg penalized team for OFFENSIVE HOLDING in reg season. In three playoff games they have not been penalized once for OFF-HOLD, despite facing three top ten ranked defensive units generating penalties in this category (LAC/HOU/DEN)
Expect both offensive units to get leeway in this game & multiple holding calls let slide by the crew
In 7 career postseason games as head referee, FAVORITES are 2-5 ATS w' Shawn Smith, favored by an avg of -5pts in those contests
Smith has averaged 9.4 penalties per game for 84 yds in those 7 playoff contests
Any penalty prop bet listed at 10 penalties, under is the way to look . They will attempt to "let em play" whenever possible
Those are the key points & hopefully we get a game half as epic as SBXLIX when these teams previously met up
I felt like the Rams at Seahawks was the defacto Super Bowl so ill ride with Seattle in this one
That said, Mike Vrabel is a heck of a coach & should not be underestimated
Prediction
#Seahawks 27 -
#Patriots 23
#NEPats #GoHawks