No.1 for #NFL referee data w' analysis @nflofficiating @NFLfootballOps can't provide. Customizing game-specific officiating models. Also find me @sharpfootball

Joined August 2019
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TAUNTING penalties are ridiculous. This is nothing, a flex by Puka Nacua after a catch. @NFLOfficiating need to scrap taunting & unsportsmanlike conduct immediately. Too much impact on games for a harmless celebration #LARvsPHI #RamsHouse
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nflrefstats retweeted
been locked away, cranking on my book for a while now ➡️ less posting & more research/writing the Early Bird Sale for my 2026 NFL Preview Book is NOW AVAILABLE! 500 pages of in-depth analysis to get you ready for the season pre-order now and SAVE $5: sharpfootballanalysis.com/wa…
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nflrefstats retweeted
NEWS: we built a new Strength of Schedule tool! you can look at both league & team ranks and you can filter by: - total strength of schedule - offensive & defensive efficiency - sub-categories: pass, rush, pass pro sharpfootballanalysis.com/st… easy download images & share!
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nflrefstats retweeted
It's HERE! 2026 NFL Schedule Grid 👀 • color coded w day & location • formatted to save as phone background Plus analysis featuring • schedule quirks • toughest & easiest schedules • tons of insights & nuggets updating ALL NIGHT LONG thread🧵 sharpfootballanalysis.com/an…
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nflrefstats retweeted
Every year the Consensus is behind on OL rankings. There's a huge OL need for pretty much every team. And NFL teams don't get the opportunity to sign good ones in free agency. You have to draft them and have to draft them early; especially at Offensive Tackle. Next year, move them all up a few spots in your rankings.
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The #Rams selecting Ty Simpson potentially pays dividends if Matt Stafford goes down, which would be a disaster for a Super Bowl contender Ideally , LA wants Stafford healthy & continiung to play in 2026/27 at an MVP level, thus making the backup QB an afterthought Squandering the 13th pick on a QB they maybe could have got later on seems misguided to me, for a team built to win now with Stafford at QB #RamsHouse
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If the #NFL does hire replacement officials in 2026, a couple of noteworthy findings from the 2012 experience HOME teams had a significantly higher win % over that 3 week period vs historic win %'s in this category Just 46.5% of penalties were assessed on home teams , vs 49.2% once regular officiating returned in 2012 It makes sense inexperienced officiating is intimidated by home crowds moreso than regular officials, & the numbers reflect that fact If history repeats in 2026, its an advantage for teams w' home games front loaded on the schedule
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LA to Australia flight complete courtesy of @Delta It's a long way to make the #49ers & #Rams travel for a football game, & seems misguided IMO. A round trip of 17,000 miles is absurd & both teams will be at a disadvantage vs their respective opponents the following week back in the USA However, we know the NFL's No.1 priority is making money, & player safety or integrity of the game be damned in their pursuit of $$$ Advice for both teams, if the #NFL permits it, Xanax (or something comparable) makes the journey far more tolerable. (I slept 10 hrs on this flight) The best way to jump-start things on arrival, go to the beach Australia has the best beaches in the world & the ocean water is the best way to reinvigorate your system after being stuck on a plane for 15 hrs Thats covers the initial leg of the trip. Sleep on plane & get into the ocean water on arrival, it will do you that you will hit the ground running & feel great Now let's wait & see when the @NFL @nflcommish decide to play this game? My guess the Friday night primetime slot in Week 1, which is a Saturday morning in Melbourne, Australia 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 #FTTB #RamsHouse
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Player fines for the 2025 #NFL season totalled $8.5 million A few noteworthy categories "celebrating" (4 fines), "conduct detrimental to the league" (6) "contact with an official" (2) @nflcommish , would the #NYGiants co-owner soliciting girls via Jeffrey Epstein be considered conduct detrimental to the league? There is no official category/fine amount for pedophilia in NFL code of conduct, but Steve Tisch is going to change that, if you're serious about "conduct detrimental to the league" Im sure @NFLPA will be interested to see what punishment is handed down, using the $8.5 million as at minimum a starting point, given that's what the league took away from players in 2025 THank you for your attention to this matter Roger Goodell
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#NFL 2025 season penalty recap The NFC West was by far the best division, recording the lowest penalty per game avg of any division in 2025 Overall, of the 10 teams averaging the FEWEST penalties per game last season, 6 made the playoffs #49ers #Rams #Seahawks #Patriots #Steelers #Panthers But of the 10 teams w' HIGHEST penalty per game avg, only 3 made the #NFLPlayoffs #Jaguars #Eagles #Broncos Noteworthy, of the 10 LEAST penalized teams for PRE-SNAP infractions, 7 made the playoffs Conversely, just 2 of the top 10 penalized via PRE-SNAP infractions made the playoffs Congratulations to the @Seahawks on their dominant #SuperBowlLX victory & can't wait for their TNF opener to kick off proceedings for the 2026 NFL season
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Why didn't New England go for two down 19-6?? Huge error by Mike Vrabel #SuperBowlLX #SuperBowl
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nflrefstats retweeted
Not sure who told officials to not call penalties, but it is appreciated. So much more enjoyable to watch players not refs
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Ive done the US to Australia flight many times The trip is ok IF you can sleep for 9 to 10 hours. You're ready to hit the ground running when you land in Australia Whether the #NFL allows players to take sleeping pills/Xanax etc will be interesting because that's the key to getting guaranteed sleep The flights leave LAX/SFO at night & arrive in the morning in Australia (two days later) The NFL isn't as popular as the NBA is down there but #Rams vs #49ers will get a huge crowd generate a ton of interest . If im there i may go check it out. Will be interesting to see when they schedule the game? Maybe Saturday there which is Friday night in the United States #FTTB #RamsHouse
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#SuperBowlLX officiating crew cheat sheet #SBLX will be the #Patriots third game w' referee Shawn Smith in 2025/26. The most recent was their win vs Houston in the Divisional Round. The bulk of that crew will return for this game on Sunday @LevisStadium , giving New England a familiarity advantage Shawn Smith's regular season crew called a BELOW AVG percentage of overall penalties via OFFENSIVE HOLDING & FALSE START, ranking 16th (of 17) & 12th respectively in those categories An #NFL leading 35% of Shawn Smith's penalties resulted in AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS via penalty in 2025 (league avg 28.3%) This unit assembled to officiate SBLX has members of the top 3 officiating crews awarding AUTOMATIC 1st DOWNS via penalty (in raw per game numbers), with officials from Alex Moore (1) Shawn Hochuli (2) & the aforementioned Smith (3) To that point, the Patriots/Texans game saw 4 of the 7 penalties called that day result in AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS, w' 3 via DEFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE & 1 for a FACE MASK The makeup of this crew points to a higher than average likelihood of DEFENSIVE PASS INTERFERENCE penalties being called, even though it historically hasn't been called much in these big games The #Seahawks hold the edge in generating beneficial penalties in this category, primarily due to the presence of JSN UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS is called at a disproportionately high rate in Super Bowls over the past 15 years. With that in mind, no head referees crews have called more UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS penalties than Shawn Smith's since 2022 Smith ranked 4th in this category in 2025, & the Hochuli crew ranked No.1. Both have a presence in this game Sunday THIRD DOWN penalties will be key. Since 2010, just 28.5% of 3rd down penalties in the Super Bowl have been called on the OFFENSE. In every other game over that time, 47.4% of 3rd down infractions were on offensive side of ball The @NFL @NFLOfficiating wants an aesthetic product for a huge viewing audience & the offensive units are provided leeway to keep the game moving along w' no interruption Shawn Smith officiated contests called 44% of 3rd down penalties on the OFFENSE in 2025, the second lowest percentage of any referee Keep that in mind for THIRD DOWN conversion prop bets The @Patriots were an above avg penalized team for OFFENSIVE HOLDING in reg season. In three playoff games they have not been penalized once for OFF-HOLD, despite facing three top ten ranked defensive units generating penalties in this category (LAC/HOU/DEN) Expect both offensive units to get leeway in this game & multiple holding calls let slide by the crew In 7 career postseason games as head referee, FAVORITES are 2-5 ATS w' Shawn Smith, favored by an avg of -5pts in those contests Smith has averaged 9.4 penalties per game for 84 yds in those 7 playoff contests Any penalty prop bet listed at 10 penalties, under is the way to look . They will attempt to "let em play" whenever possible Those are the key points & hopefully we get a game half as epic as SBXLIX when these teams previously met up I felt like the Rams at Seahawks was the defacto Super Bowl so ill ride with Seattle in this one That said, Mike Vrabel is a heck of a coach & should not be underestimated Prediction #Seahawks 27 - #Patriots 23 #NEPats #GoHawks
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#SuperBowlLX officiating prop available @BetOnline_ag With thousands of prop wagers available on the game, Terry McAuley being consulted over 2.5 times probably the biggest lock of any Super Bowl prop Despite Roger Goodell's amazement at the officiating, there will be many opportunities for @SNFonNBC to get McAulay involved on Sunday's broadcast Over 2.5 the EASY winner for the #SuperBowl #NEPats #Seahawks
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#SuperBowlLX prop bet @southpointlv "Will There be a ROUGHING THE PASSER penalty called in #SuperBowl ?" NO at -150 is the play & this line will close closer to -300 Super Bowls get excess unnecessary roughness penalties called, but limited roughing the passer calls. Just two called since 2010
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#SuperBowlLX prop bets @BetOnline_ag focused on the @SNFonNBC coverage Will Terry McAulay disagree w' a call? I doubt it Maybe a half-hearted disagreement is the best you will get but he will remain neutral w' @NFLOfficiating #Seahawks #Patriots #NFLPlayoffs #SuperBowl
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Bill Belicheck's defensive gameplan in the #NYGiants Super Bowl XXV win vs the #Bills was so brilliant it is already in the ProFootball Hall of Fame Since that time he went on to win 6 more Super Bowls as a head coach Seems extremely petty whoever didn't vote him in. Sounds like Bill Polian has some sort of axe to grind Get him off the committee, he has no credibility IMO Likewise the MLB Hall of Fame Put Barry Bonds in already, the guy was one of the best players in @MLB history @ProFootballHOF @baseballhall #SFGiants
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#NFLPlayoffs have averaged 7.5 penalties per game for 62.5 yds compared to 12.7 per game for 102.5 yds in the 2025 #NFL regular season FALSE STARTS have seen a 24% DECLINE vs reg season avgs OFFENSIVE HOLDING is the biggest downward mover, recording a 67% DECLINE vs reg season avgs (2.47 reg. season per game vs 0.83 per game in playoffs) A lot of the ticky-tack PRE-SNAP infractions like ILLEGAL FORMATION almost vanish in playoffs,as @NFLOfficiating instructs crews to implement a "let em play" approach in games viewed by a wider audience containing more casual fans One area of increase, the percentage of overall penalties resulting in AUTOMATIC 1ST DOWNS has risen from 28.3% in reg season to 34% in the playoffs I will have information on this with Shawn Smith's all-star crew for #SuperBowlLX later in the week #Seahawks #Patriots
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Good no-call on #Rams The ball wasn't catchable #LARvsSEA #NFCChampionship #NFLPlayoffs
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nflrefstats retweeted
Two total penalties for 5 yards through 3 quarters. Just further proves the league can turn them on/off like a faucet when they want.
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