Gold at $4,325. Down 23% from January’s $5,595 ATH.
Everyone’s asking if the bull run is over.
It’s not. Here’s why 🧵
1/ What actually happened
Gold ran 60% in 2025 — its best year since 1979. Parabolic moves get corrected. This one was overdue. The pullback has nothing to do with the structural drivers that caused the rally. It’s profit-taking hot US data pushing back rate cut expectations a stronger dollar. Temporary, not structural.
2/ The floor is real
Central banks bought 863 tonnes in 2025 — nearly double the pre-2022 average. Q1 2026: 244 tonnes, up 3% YoY. Poland, China, emerging markets all adding. This isn’t a trade. It’s de-dollarization. These buyers don’t panic-sell on a bad CPI print.
3/ The thesis hasn’t broken
For gold to genuinely reverse you need ALL of this simultaneously:
•Fed hiking again
•Inflation below 2% sustained
•Middle East peace deal
•Central banks stopping purchases
•USD rallying 20%
None of that is happening. Not even close.
4/ Where we are technically
$4,319 = the yearly open. Critical level being tested right now. Below that, next real support is $4,100–$4,200. A break there opens $3,800–$3,900. That’s the bear case — painful, not terminal.
To resume the uptrend, gold needs to reclaim $4,500, then $4,800.
5/ What the big banks say
•Goldman Sachs: $5,400 year-end
•JPMorgan: $5,000–$6,300
•Wells Fargo: $6,100–$6,300
•Reuters poll of 31 analysts: $4,916 median
Even the bears see $4,500 by year-end. The disagreement is on magnitude, not direction.
6/ The setup
$4,325 today. Consensus target $5,000–5,100 by December. That’s a 16–18% move from current levels — better risk/reward than buying at $5,500 in January.
The structural bull market for gold is one of the clearest macro trades of this decade. You’re being handed a re-entry.
The only question is whether you have the patience to sit through the noise.
Gold doesn’t care about your timeline. It moves on its own schedule.