Great speaking on @tastyliveshow with @IlyaSpivak. youtu.be/AXmii-5IKiE?si=rBCx…

You have to love this… $SPCX The “facts on $SPAX” The 2x daily ETF is coming tomorrow. Thank goodness, how would we have managed risk or generated return safely without it? Below, the table from the prospectus that you always want to look at in one of these products. It maps returns in the underlying versus modeled returns in the lev product based on a vol assumption. Geometric returns and “vol drag” mean that higher volatility in the underlying will cause the leveraged product to do worse than 2x the return of the underlying. It’s a consequence of the trading strategy getting long the underlying when it rises to an extent that no one conceivably would. The problem is that no one reads this table or really understands it. The table includes a 10% vol assumption in the table for your convenience. Wow. There aren’t many 10 vol assets in the world. The SPX is more like a 15 vol. But SPCX might be one? It would mean it was moving around 60bps a day. 25 vol? Still not even close. 50 vol? That’s 3% daily move. Closer, perhaps, over the course of a year, but I still buy that. 50 vol is where an honest table would start. And a 150 vol should be added as well. The results at 150 are shockingly bad. See the second pic below. Lastly, how does the third table look? Eliminates the ridiculous 10 and 25 vol assumptions. Please know what you are buying.

I reckon @AnthropicAI killing Fable creates increased demand for M5 minis and Studios so people can run local now that they know they can't depend on reliable access to frontier models. $AAPL $DRAM

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He should buy it and make robot hockey...still couldn't fix the lines at Whistler on a weekend tho.

via MS QDS @t1alpha

Elon just created 4,400 millionaires in a single day. 400 of them are now worth over $100 million. These aren't VCs. They're SpaceX employees, and the list includes welders, technicians, and cafeteria staff, because for two decades the company paid every level of the workforce in stock instead of higher salaries. Juan Hernandez immigrated from Mexico and took a $28 an hour contractor welding job in 2015. He says he didn't even know what SpaceX was. The company gave him a $10,000 equity grant and let him buy more shares through payroll deductions. That stake is now worth $880,000. Trevor Hise's parents wanted him to take a stable job at General Electric. He picked SpaceX instead, stayed 12 years, and accumulated over 100,000 shares. At the $135 listing price that's $13.5 million. He's 37 and semiretired. His words: "The magnitude of this has been ridiculous." The most telling detail came before the listing. Over 100 employees quietly banded together and negotiated a group wealth management deal covering up to $5 billion, because none of them had ever needed a wealth manager before. Software IPOs have minted millionaires for 30 years. This is the first one where the money went to the factory floor.

BREAKING: The average American is now closer to Jeff Bezos in net worth than Jeff Bezos is to Elon Musk, per MW The typical American household has a median net worth of roughly $192,900. Elon Musk’s fortune sits at approximately $1.2 Trillion, while Jeff Bezos has a net worth of about $247 Billion. The distance between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk is a staggering $953 Billion, whereas the distance between the typical American and Jeff Bezos is roughly $246.8 Million.

BREAKING: SpaceX stock, $SPCX, surges over 30% to a fresh record high and hits $2.3 trillion in market cap. SpaceX is now the 6th largest public company in the world.

SK Hynix ratio of open interest in calls to puts...roughly 100 to 1. Not sure there's ever been anything this extreme.

"said"

I'm working with this new model now on risk/vol models.

$QQQ -4% peak to now

Live with @NoelSmith and @JackFarley96

Live w/ @NoelSmith & @maxwiethe now, talking dispersion, correlation, and rise (and risk) of leveraged ETFs

via @Cboe and Mandy Xu

Chart via @Nasdaq

Put sellers looking at this volume