Bitcoin’s current demand structure is showing a divergence that’s worth paying attention to.
Futures (ERP) demand is rising, while spot demand continues to contract.
We’ve seen this before. A very similar setup appeared in early 2022, when the market was being pushed higher by leveraged positioning rather than real spot buying. That imbalance eventually resolved to the downside.
The recent ~20% rally in April seems to follow the same pattern. The move was largely driven by perpetual futures traders, not strong spot accumulation.
When a rally is driven mainly by futures, it’s often less sustainable.
Futures positions are typically leveraged and short-term in nature. They can push price quickly, but they don’t represent real capital flowing into the asset.
Spot buying, on the other hand, means actual demand. Coins are being bought and held, which tends to create a stronger and more stable foundation for price.
In a futures-driven move, the market becomes more fragile:
If momentum slows, leveraged longs can get squeezed
Funding can flip and unwind positions quickly
There’s less “real” demand underneath to support price
That’s why these types of rallies often fade or correct once the leverage unwinds.
Looking at the broader structure:
Sustainable rallies usually happen when both spot and futures demand expand together. Right now, we’re seeing a phase where speculative demand increases while real demand weakens.
This also aligns with other indicators and current Elliott Wave counts.
There is always more than one scenario, but right now multiple data points are pointing in a similar direction.
Simple takeaway:
Upside looks limited here, but this is not confirmed bearish yet.
For a clearer downside scenario, the market still needs structural confirmation. Until then, this remains a leverage-driven move that requires caution.
(Data: CryptoQuant)