shitposting and making fun of economists

Tomorrow is the 16-week anniversary of the start of the Iran war. NOLA fert price comparisons: Urea - -19% UAN - 39% NH3 - 19% DAP - 28% MAP - 16% Potash - 14% The same timeframe comparison for grains... Corn - -6% Beans - 0.5% Wheat - -2% Make it make sense...

RT @HFI_Research: Wait, so Fujairah and ARA fuel oil storage is at tank bottom. Singapore is 8 million bbls or 3 weeks from tank bottom? U…

Pentagon says strikes on Iran are a form of 'coercive diplomacy' that are 'designed to force Iranian concessions at the negotiating table', according to Wall Street Journal report. Wait I thought they were “defensive strikes”

I know oil doesn't matter anymore but..🤷‍♂️🙈

The decade of transitory inflation continues...

Short interest on $BPT.ax nearing 10% also.. 🤔 Short interest in WDS & STO has fallen since March, so less likely to be a view on oil/gas px... M&A coming soon perhaps? Or am I about to get rugged, let's see 🤷‍♂️

Harbour Energy $HBR.L generated $700M in FCF at $76/bbl oil price in Q1 and trades for $6.5B They're guiding for $1.4B in FCF at $80/bbl That's a 36% FCF yield at well under spot oil And they'll pay out up to 75% of that to shareholders with a strong base dividend

CENTCOM: We have started strikes in Iran in response to the downing of the Apache helicopter

Based on recent $VMC.ax deal, I get a market value of A$100m for $FZR.ax royalty! I think Youanmi and Snowy River are reasonable comps - both UG, high-grade, potential for extension/expansion... wonder if some larger players are looking for 'geographical diversification' into NZ 🤔

🚢Maersk suspends Strait of Hormuz transits; says Middle East conflict adds >$500m/month in costs Security in the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated amid US‑Israel‑Iran fighting, prompting Danish shipping giant Maersk to suspend vessel transits and activate contingency plans, including land routing of cargo. Maersk’s chief commercial officer Carsten Kildahl said the measures protect crew but are creating severe economic pressure: direct Gulf trades and other routes face higher costs from rerouting and rising fuel, with incremental expenses already exceeding $500m/month. The group cannot absorb the full burden and will pass some costs to customers, many of whom are also facing higher raw‑material prices. Industry contacts say higher transport and production costs may feed through to consumer prices. (mktnews.com/flashDetail.html…)

Exactly 3 months on... buying more today... still in the 7s🙄 $STO.ax

Indonesian trade surplus falls to 6-yr low in April: * Non-O&G trade produced surplus of ~$3.5b * O&G trade produced deficit of ~$3.4b Western politician says nothing to see here but the canaries are chirping..

U.S. bombed Iran in self defense again

Every time you find yourself paying above $3/L at the pump from here on out, think of how cooked the Govt books are going to be... 🤦‍♂️

One of the more important Budget excerpts for us younger folk... Super costs destined to rise, as are interest costs (as we load up debt to pay for this) 2.5% of the 5.2% growth in expenditure = entirely unavoidable...

Sold this thing too soon 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️.. congrats to holders $VMC.AX

By Treasury's own forecasts, NZ Super is anticipated to increase by at least $1.5b/yr to 2030... even with an inflation forecast of 1.6% in 2027 🙈 (these costs are inflation-linked) To stand still (at an $11b deficit starting point..) will require either a $1.5b/yr revenue increase (tax hike) or equivalent spending cut... Doesn't seem to be political appetite for either