Joined March 2015
Photos and videos
Listening to Coinbase #SystemUpdate Livestream on the Coinbase app. Hopefully they drop some big news šŸ™
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Liquidity is leaving crypto and heading for tradfi IPOs. They'll make the Otherside mint liquidity drain seem like nothing in comparison.
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Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing. You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America. The whole point was the rules. The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill. After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules. For 23 years, those rules held. Then SpaceX filed for IPO. And the rules changed. The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to. Except the rules used to say they didn't. Here's the thought exercise: If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting? Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline. A rule binds the rule-maker. A guideline binds the saver. You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.
May 29
Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months. Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%. The rules built to protect passive investors: 1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived. 2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15. 3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5. All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.
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paultee retweeted
70 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 69 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 68 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 67 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 66 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 65 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 64 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 63 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 62 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 61 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 60 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 59 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 58 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 57 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 56 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 55 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 54 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 53 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 52 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 51 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 50 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 49 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 48 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 47 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 46 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 45 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 44 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 43 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 42 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 41 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 40 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 39 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 38 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 37 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 36 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 35 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 34 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 33 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 32 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 31 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 30 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 29 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 28 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 27 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 26 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 25 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 24 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 23 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 22 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 21 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 20 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 19 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 18 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 17 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 16 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 15 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 14 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 13 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 12 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 11 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 10 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 9 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 8 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 7 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 6 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 5 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 4 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 3 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 2 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 1 day ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal ...Continue šŸ˜‚
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93% of stablecoin TVL earns <5% APY. @USDai_Official says they'll fix that with 13-17% yields backed by... GPU hardware loans. The collateral: šŸ“‰H100s down 85% from peak ($40K → $6K) šŸ“‰Rental rates collapsed 70% ($8/hr → $2.10) šŸ“‰Blackwell is 25x more efficient than Hopper šŸ“‰Active loans were ~2% of TVL So what's actually generating yield? T-bills points speculation ahead of $CHIP TGE. This is subprime auto lending in a DeFi wrapper: financing the fastest depreciating asset class in tech with stablecoin deposits that expect instant liquidity. Every securitization crisis in history had the same DNA: āŒ Illiquid depreciating collateral āŒ Marginal borrowers āŒ Short-duration funding āŒ Thin first-loss tranche They even compare themselves to MBS. Bold choice. If you actually want yield on stables without praying your collateral doesn't obsolete itself every 18 months the answer isn't hardware loans. It's volatility. Crypto derivatives are the most mispriced, inefficient market on earth. Implied vs realized spreads, cross-venue funding dislocations, and dispersion trades generate yield from math, not from depreciating metal in a data center. D2 has done 194% in 25 months. 2.6 Sharpe. Positive returns through Aug '24 (-22% ETH), Feb '25 (-33% ETH), and the Oct '25 ADL cascade, every event that blew up the "safe yield" protocols. The edge isn't novel collateral. It's institutional derivatives expertise applied to the most inefficient markets in finance. Verifiable on-chain. No depreciating hardware. No unstaking queues. No prayers that AI capex stays hot forever. Hyperliquid
.@defillama "LlamaAI what stablecoin with more than $200m TVL has the highest yield in DeFi?" šŸ¤”
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#BREAKING: U.S. Troops received menus including, steak, pie, crab legs & lobster.
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paultee retweeted
Lifting weights is associated withĀ better academic performance.
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Can't wait for the Senate hearings: Senator: President Clinton, why were you on the island? Clinton: Same reason you were, Senator. Senator: My time is up.
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I’m not saying I know exactly when the US is going to pull the trigger on Iran, but I’m definitely not reading too much into Trump’s comments or the weekend "rumors." Given how President Trump sounded and the rumors flying around before the US hit Fordow last year, there’s no need to overthink the weekend headlines. Trump’s actually got a pretty balanced head on his shoulders when it comes to this(and no, I’m not a supporter), so he probably wants to avoid getting sucked into another "forever war." Meanwhile, Iran just needs to buy time, so they’ll keep the negotiation charade going as long as possible. The string of negotiations hasn’t snapped completely bc, in this specific area, both sides actually have interests that overlap. But... Even after Operation Rising Lion in 2025 and the US strikes on those nuclear sites, we haven’t seen any actual progress on a peace deal. The US wants it all—zero enrichment, no stockpiles, and for Iran to just give up its ballistic missiles. But like the Iranian officials keep saying, those are absolute red lines. It’s just not realistic for the regime to fold. They’ve spent decades and tens of billions of dollars on their nukes, missiles, and proxies. Giving that up now would basically be regime suicide. At the end of the day, the gap between the two sides is just too massive for a deal to actually fix this. #oott #iran
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Futures acting as if Trump appointed Volcker's zombie to take over the Fed
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BREAKING: US natural gas prices extend gains to 40% on the day, now on track for one of the largest daily gains in history. Natural gas prices are now up 240% since January 16th. That's like gas prices rising from $3.00/gallon to $7.20/gallon in 5 trading days. Commodities are on fire.
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3 Dec 2025
Replying to @counterpartytv
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13 Nov 2025
Gg it's over
BREAKING: The White House announces that the October jobs report will be released WITHOUT an unemployment rate.
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paultee retweeted
11 Nov 2025
ā€˜Fannie Mae set to drop its 620 credit score minimum.’ …Mortgage giant will instead use its own analysis of risk factors. Exit liquidity #MacroEdge
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paultee retweeted
On a $400K Mortgage at 7% Interest: 1. 30Y Mortgage: $558,000 in lifetime interest 2. 50Y Mortgage: $1,116,000 in lifetime interest With a 50Y mortgage, you pay DOUBLE the amount of interest compared to a 30Y mortgage. We are in a crisis.
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30 Oct 2025
The first non-profit to IPO. Truly the golden age of capitalism and financial engineering
30 Oct 2025
JUST IN: OpenAI is preparing for an IPO at a $1 trillion valuation. The company is considering filing in 2H’26 and target raising $60B .
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paultee retweeted
Put it all on black!
26 Oct 2025
Investor margin debt is now higher than revolving credit card debt
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24 Oct 2025
When you go abroad for a length of time, or even travel extensively, you realize how unique Americans are in their optimism, openness and positivity bias. Other cultures don't have it. They've been around for a lot longer and have went through crisis after crisis. They have a more negative bias to things. It's encoded in the language and culture. Helps you survive. But the US has been an upward trajectory for a long time. So it doesn't have it.
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paultee retweeted
If you’re a single male on the buyside and are somewhere earlier on in the career trajectory Brett describes I highly recommend skipping your usual vacs to Europe and spending at least a couple weeks in a country like Brazil. And the earlier you do so the better. Because when you visit countries where you can live a hedonistic lifestyle at a fraction of your NYC comp you both reset what your ā€œnumberā€ has to be but also come to appreciate that the vast majority of the NYC bubble is effectively a false construct where you overpay for status to ensure you consistently get laid and are admired by peers… when you can just get up and go somewhere else where none of that is necessary. To be clear I am not advocating for quitting your job but I am saying having that perspective and fallback is a massive reliever of stress and a very healthy dose of reality. The only major downside is it will ruin any desire to remain an active participant in the New York dating scene.
I went through this exact journey myself. After 13 years climbing the ladder at hedge funds in NYC and ultimately reaching my goal of becoming a portfolio manager, I had a major internal crisis. I had the analytical capabilities to do the job, but my nervous system wasn't wired in a way that aligned with navigating the volatility of the marketplace (and workforce) while also finding internal peace & joy. I worked with a coach, and he asked me "is this what you want to be doing at 50?". I was burned out and no longer found meaning in seeking to generate 300bps of alpha for institutional LPs - the answer was obvious. I knew I needed a change. I decided to move my family from NYC to Scottsdale, and downshift & reorient my career, while also meaningfully restructuring my personal cost structure. I thought the peace and joy would flow immediately upon the move...remove the stressor and joy arrives, right? Right?! WELL, for really the first time in my life, this gray feeling of depression crept in, and it surprised me. In NYC I was special. I had status, I had an identify. The first thing people ask at a cocktail party in Tribeca is "what do you do?". With pride, I responded "I'm a PM at Citadel". Brokers rolled out the red carpet and "friends" emerged given your perch and your ability to help them. I was infected with mimetic desire and I moved into a beautiful apartment building and was neighbors with Leonardo DiCaprio and Tyra Banks. And it was fun, it was thrilling. Then, all of a sudden I didn't have that. I was a failed "semi-retired" PM. I looked around me, and I didn't feel special...I felt, for the first time in my life, average. I lived in an average house, drove an average car, and lived an average lifestyle. And it hit me harder than I thought it would. And I went through it. I struggled for a solid 18 months. I went through the letting go of my ego, the letting go of the identity that I had been so carefully crafting for nearly 20 years. What did I learn along the way? I learned that depression is a feature, not a bug. A period of depression, when associated with the letting go of identity, is actually a well-established threshold in the archetypal evolution of male spirituality. The journey for me kicked off a transition towards a much deeper exploration of the true meaning of life, which I believe is a deeply personal question. For me, this transition point marked a transition towards inner growth as a primary metric of success. Who I can become. In exploration, I learned that what I was going through was far from unique, but was actually a well-established transition point in a well-lived life. I stumbled upon Richard Rohr's wonderful book, Falling Upward, and it seemed to explain this journey in wonderful precision. How the loss of attachment to status and identity is actually a wonderful gift! I have established this framework as a core part of my personal philosophy of life. And, with some distance from the gray, now look at that period of my life as a wonderful gift. A necessary letting go and reorientation towards more true and more enduring sources of peace, joy & meaning. So, if you are feeling depressed at the loss of identity. Keep going. It's a sign you are on the right track.
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paultee retweeted
Something I noticed a few years ago was the prevalence of gambling ads in everyday life. Like, if you fly to Medellin, every billboard from the airport to the city is for gambling. Same in Eastern Europe. My intuition is that the more hopeless the average consumer thinks their economic outlook is, the more likely they are to ā€œrisk it allā€ because, fuck it, might as well gamble your way out of the underclass. Subject people to high inflation, uncertain job prospects, and zero friction speculation, you can make a lot of money exploiting that anxiety. And now we’re in the era of venture-backed financial nihilism where billion-dollar companies are built on this phenomenon.
23 Oct 2025
a16z-backed Cheddr is building "the TikTok of sports wagering" - Unlike other platforms, they allow players under 21 and in 46 states!
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