USIT's @lizvstein on orbital data center scale-up vs. increased compute innovation on the ground. "I don't know what the mix will look like between the two, because I think that my smooth brain here is that it's a bit of a timing race." "Like, how quickly does Starship ramp to high cadence to hit the economic numbers they need? We've heard anywhere between $100 to $500 per kg into LEO." "How quickly does SpaceX ramp Starship cadence to hit that number versus all of the innovation going on on the ground, and how quickly that ramps and deploys?"

Renaissance founding president and B Capital chairman @HLMorgan says SpaceX has a monopoly, but it doesn't benefit from network effects like Google or Facebook. "Right now, SpaceX's launch monopoly is a real monopoly, pretty much." "But little bits are being chipped away at the edge. And I think when Blue Origin gets it together, they'll be big. Because everybody wants to go elsewhere." "It's different than Google's search, where you had real network effects. There aren't real network effects in launch. And so they don't get the benefit of that." "Facebook got the benefit of network effects. Google got the benefit of network effects. SpaceX doesn't have the benefit of network effects." "And even in the data center world, there's no real network effect benefit. So there is room for competition."

.@SpaceX is expected to price at a valuation between $1.75T and $2T, with a raise of up to $80B. This capital will not stay entirely within SpaceX, but will flow down through its supply chain and into even newer technologies. payloadspace.com/op-ed-up-to…

All eyes are on New York for @SpaceX's IPO, but the moment represents more than just a record-breaking exit by a US space company. payloadspace.com/what-the-sp…

"Capex is all about what this is going to look like over the next 1, 2, 3 years. And in really the next decade." "I think that is how investors are likely going to view SpaceX. This is not going to be quarter by quarter. It's years that we talk about." - @DivesTech

.@tileboxio announced an update aiming to make AI agents more effective geospatial-data analysts. payloadspace.com/exclusive-t…

.@shaunmmaguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."

Renaissance cofounder and B Capital chairman @HLMorgan on SpaceX's $1.75T valuation: "The question in any investment—and we used to say this at Renaissance too—is what's your time horizon? "If Renaissance sold a share of stock to Warren Buffett, if it went down in 20 microseconds, Renaissance made money. If it went up in 20 years, Warren Buffett made money." "So the time horizons matter. And if your time horizon for SpaceX is 10 years, I think you'll do fine. If your time horizon for SpaceX is two months, I'd be a little worried."

Full interview with Howard Morgan (@HLMorgan) on the @SpaceX IPO. Howard is the Chair of @BCapital, co-founder of RenTech, and co-founder of @firstround. "I think space is probably around 1985 or 1990 in internet terms. Still pretty early." We discuss: – how the IPO price was not set by the market and what that means for where the stock actually lands – Starlink's coming price war and why Amazon's LEO constellation is a risk factor worth pricing in – why cooling in orbit is harder than people think re space-based compute, but why it still works – the SpaceX launch monopoly and why the absence of network effects means competition will come – the infrastructure layer being built around SpaceX 👇 w/ @JackKuhr

.@shaunmmaguire believes that within 5 years, SpaceX’s D2C will become a cheaper way to deliver cell data in almost any location than installing new 5G panels. "I think people are just really underestimating how much of the global Internet traffic, both for broadband and for mobile, is going to be carried by the Starlink / direct-to-cell network five years from now." "And I think that that will lead to giant, extremely high-margin revenue growth for the company."

.@SpaceX is set to go public at a $1.75T valuation. Analysts are split over whether that’s the right number, and how the stock will perform in the short term—but everyone agrees the space industry is booming. payloadspace.com/analysts-de…

.@DivesTech says there's an 80% chance SpaceX and Tesla will merge by next year discusses regulatory timing. "Musk is obviously well aware in terms of the sensitivity given like do they get too big regulators in this environment relative to the strong and stronger in terms of from a big tech perspective." "So I think there's some of that at play, but also you don't want to drink out of a fire hose."

.@symphony_space is getting into the orbital data center (ODC) game. The VA-based startup, which unveiled its hosted payload satellite in March, announced a more powerful concept—called Adagio-XL—targeting the ODC market. payloadspace.com/symphony-sp…

.@shaunmmaguire on how fast Starship can accelerate. "To me, I just think it's basically there. The company has essentially demonstrated everything you would need for reusable LEO flight. They have not demonstrated everything you would need for rapidly reusable LEO flight." "In my opinion, they've already done enough to where I feel very confident that they could be flying about 1,000 Starship flights a year with very good unit economics."

Lots of fun with Jack @itsmoislam talking about the @SpaceX IPO youtube.com/watch?v=t7S2b9sc…

LA-based startup Orbital announced a $5M pre-seed funding round to bankroll a new orbital-data-center (ODC) constellation. payloadspace.com/orbital-rai…

The FCC has granted @Amazonleo more time to get at least half of its constellation into orbit, but placed some restrictions on the satellite operator to encourage launching as quickly as possible. payloadspace.com/fcc-gives-a…

.@SpaceX and @blueorigin plan to each provide a lander for the 2027 mission to Earth orbit, which will serve as a test run for Moon landings starting as soon as the following year, NASA confirmed. payloadspace.com/artemis-iii…

Reflex Aerospace selected Spanish startup Arkadia Space to provide a propulsion system for its satellite mission, launching in 2027. The agreement marks the first time that Germany’s Reflex will fly a chemical-propulsion system on one of its satellites. payloadspace.com/reflex-aero…

.@QuantumSpace_US announced its intention to go public via SPAC. The move to take the in-space mobility company public is driven by the company’s desire to move quickly to meet the military’s needs in orbit. payloadspace.com/quantum-spa…