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@robin_j_brooks your comments below reveal a profound lack of understanding of the oil market. Commodity futures price inventory, NOT expectations. That isn't ideology; it's a fact grounded in the economics of carry. The Brent price in your graph is not a risk anyone can actually hold — it's a spot contract stitched together at each expiry. In normal times that's a fair proxy; these are not normal times. Construct a series an investor could truly hold — a rolled BCOM index, or the USO ETF — and the picture inverts: it slopes hard up and to the right, consistent with the largest supply shock in history. USO keeps climbing because the shortage is showing up in the futures curve — not in the headline price on the screen. The carry pays an investor nearly 50% a year, even if the price of oil never moves. The SPR was drawn down before commercial inventories — when it is normally the other way round. Strategic stocks are meant to be the last line of defence, not the first, but this time Washington spent them first, managing headlines not risk. When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250. The observed indication from Asia is ~200.

"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." - Newton Corollary: when MBA's apply logarithms to Ponzinomics, you may know your bubble is cooked $MSTR

Google equity raise summarized.

Amazing

On the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I was joined by @Bob_McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, former White House energy advisor to President George W Bush, and the author of Crude Volatility: The History and The Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices. Our conversation focused on the history of the market’s view of the Hormuz risk, the latest status of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, and the longer-term consequences to the geopolitics oil the oil market. open.spotify.com/episode/534…

It will be funny when the SOH opens & everyone rejoices and all the map trackers show the ships passing. And only 0.2% of us will be paying attention to what matters: Whether any new ships choose to go back in. And as such, it won't *actually* matter until too late.

Oil Intensity of Global GDP last 60y: CringedIn vs Reality

'The market is basically saying that all future growth won't happen and the capex spend will be a disaster.' Pretty much the TLDR of Jet2 since '08. Perpetually undervalued profitable growth gets you 50x in 18 years. Only this time, CFO told you the buyback will remain on.

On primary and secondary benefits of digital advertising. What those bringing up yuge regulatory risk (while real) for GOOG/META underestimate is that turning off targeted advertising will have ever more devastating effect in a few years time (think Hormuz now). Critical infra

This was fantastic. What remains scarce in AI superabundance? One answer: distribution of aggregating human attention $GOOG $META

Islamists are not compatible w/ Western Democracy. Suicidal/corrupt liberals in many democracies empower Islamists by allying w/ them as a voting/fraud block while remaining completely silent about evils committed across the globe. Murder/rape/torture/child marriage/inbreeding.