Do not listen to the cultists trying to convince you otherwise: the United States, and to a degree, Israel, have suffered a profound strategic setback with the signing of the interim deal or the MOU with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The regime, though tactically bruised, now holds immense leverage that renders months of bombing and the future threat of force largely irrelevant.
Iran retains its highly enriched uranium and the regional strike capabilities that allow it to threaten multiple states and impose political costs if its demands are not met. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively become an Iranian instrument of global economic coercion. Tehran has also succeeded in tying the fate of Hezbollah to the agreement, preserving billions of dollars in investments in the group’s military, political, and social infrastructure, turning Lebanon into a permanent forward operating platform against Israel. Add to this the billions likely to flow into the regime through sanctions relief and the lifting of the naval blockade, enabling Tehran to rebuild, rearm, and re‑entrench. One outcome is certain: the regime will now pursue nuclear armament with maximal determination, even if that takes five to ten years to achieve; and they'll have delivery vehicles, long-range ballistic missiles, for deploying those nukes; a North Korea-like state in the heart of the Middle East.
America’s Gulf partners, undermined and abandoned, are now forced to court Tehran to protect their own stability. The foundational bargain of U.S. protection in exchange for sustaining the PetroDollar and aligning with Washington has been undermined. The Iranian people, whose sacrifices earlier this year briefly threatened the regime, have been effectively traded away; used to trigger a half‑baked war that ultimately strengthened the Islamic Republic’s regional and international posture. Hezbollah has been rescued, and Iranian‑backed militias now believe the regime will stand by them even when costs are high.
And tragically, what began in Gaza on October 7 with Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel has achieved far more than the Islamic Republic could have imagined: isolating Israel, halting Saudi‑Israeli normalization, reviving the so‑called “resistance” narrative, and weakening the moderate Arab‑Sunni states that champion development over destruction.
This is what American retreat and diminished power look like. It may mark the accelerated beginning of the end of U.S. global primacy, driven by strategic miscalculation and failed leadership. China and other adversaries are watching with satisfaction while Americans argue over trivialities, oblivious to the geopolitical abyss opening beneath the country’s economic, political, and cultural foundations.