Wisdom decoder & cultural voyager🧭 | @uwaterloo Prof | @OnWisdomPodcast co-host | Forecasting Collaborative founder | 🇺🇦🇩🇪🇺🇸🇨🇦
Joined May 2014
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After three months on the road, I'm finally putting the bags down for a bit — Freiburg, for the next month, on an Alexander von Humboldt Research Award/Prize. A short thread on landing here 🧵
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The work: metacognitive foundations of judgment under uncertainty, forecasting, and cultural evolution. The road here ran through Konstanz (@CBehav , hosted by Wolfgang Gaissmaier) and @HSGStGallen (IBT-HSG, hosted by Tobias Ebert).
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If you're in Freiburg or nearby and want to talk #wisdom, #metacognition, social psychology, #AI, or anything adjacent — I'm around all month. Coffee's on me. ☕
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Can LLMs know what they don’t know?
A paper by Steyvers & Peters offers a sharp empirical look at AI metacognition: how models track their own knowledge boundaries & communicate uncertainty, in the spirit of metacognitive sensitivity metrics.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.…
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It connects with the core thesis of our recent @TrendsCognSci paper on “machine wisdom”.
Our paper focuses more on the why: why AI systems need perspectival metacognition to become more robust, explainable, and safe.
doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2026.…
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The broader point: intractable problems require metacognitive control over object-level strategies.
AI alignment may depend not just on optimizing outputs, but on building systems that can reflect on their own limits, alternatives, and uncertainty. #AIalignment #metacognition
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New paper with the amazing @aejj1228 @amirhkarimi_ : "Metacognition Should Be the Scientific Framework
for Bounded and Effective Self-Governance in Generative AI"
LINK: arxiv.org/abs/2605.23981
#metacognition #LLM #selfgovernance
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A presto, Firenze. 🇮🇹 Spent May 2026 as a Visiting Fellow at the @EUI_EU Robert Schuman Centre @EUI_Schuman , during EUI's 50th anniversary. Fiesole's hills, Renaissance Florence, and conversations on science for policy. Still processing it all.
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2/Grateful for visits with colleagues in Genoa, Milan & Lucca, connecting with the Italian Young Academy, and esp. @gaby_um's hospitality and our exchanges on strengthening the evidential value of science in policy foresight, & the role of social scientists in the AI age.
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Why do we agree about the sky being blue but argue about politics and religion?
@BayesandBounds target article in Psych Inquiry 37:1 says: not because there are 2 kinds of belief; because evidence in the world has locality.
Plus commentaries reply.
🔗 doi.org/10.1080/1047840X.202…
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Thrilled this is out! tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
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Do we have 2 kinds of beliefs? Some beliefs seem insensitive to evidence and rarely guide behavior, etc. To explain this, several theories divide belief into 2 types. I argue the explanation isn't in the *mind* but in the *world*
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1/ We've been measuring intellectual humility wrong. Most scales ask "are you intellectually humble?" but the people least humble are the most miscalibrated about it. They overclaim. The #humilityparadox. Out today in Behavior Research Methods. Here's what we did instead. 🧵
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7/ We propose four design principles for measuring metacognitive constructs, both for IH and others: Contextual specificity Event reconstruction (real, not hypothetical) Accessibility (binary chains over Likert) Model within-person variability
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8/ Enormous credit to
@MaksimRudnev who led the analyses and brought this over the finish line, and to
@NAChristakis whose Honduras fieldwork made non-WEIRD validation possible. Also
@AnaLRodriguezD and Ryan Barrett. rdcu.be/fg3EB #measurement #intellectual #humility
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