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RandomWalk @ratesfuntime

Rates trader — looking to discuss and learn — posting daily rates markets updates and trade ideas on my Substack: substack.com/@randomwalking

Joined December 2021
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RandomWalk@ratesfuntime
8 Jan 2025
On this page you’ll find frequent updates on financial markets for free - specifically interest rates, trade ideas, and general discussion. The bulk of the content is on my Substack. Subscribe! randomwalking.substack.com?r…
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Latest markets update is live! - Focus on the shambles that is the BOE - A look at the ripping in Treasury spreads - Changes to live trades plus a new one Enjoy! open.substack.com/pub/random…
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We have the UK’s BOE meeting tomorrow (Thursday), and the risk/reward is starting to look pretty good for an event trade over it: short front GBP rates. 1/6
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Consensus is for 8-1, but two members (Greene and Pill) have previously had a pretty anti-cuts lean in the fave of STRONG wage growth and sticky inflation. Not much has changed on that front. We could easily get a 7-2 or even 6-3 vote - a surprising outcome for the market. 5/6
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Given current pricing, this sort of event, with comms expressing cautiousness around inflation, could see a sizeable selloff. Besides a 9-0 vote for a cut (extremely unlikely), I don’t see much of a catalyst for a further rally on the day. Good risk/reward for a short! 6/6
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New free markets update: - Obligatory comments on tariffs (sorry) - Some comments on UK and US front end rates - Update on live trades with a new tracker open.substack.com/pub/random…
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RandomWalk retweeted
Dario Perkins
@darioperkins
30 Jan 2025
Powell yesterday confirmed that policy has moved from pre-emptive easing (cutting to prevent bad things happening in the future), to reactive easing (cutting when bad things happen). Put another way, Fed policy isnt a reason to be bullish stocks anymore
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With rates markets being pretty sleepy, I’ve decided to do a fun thought experiment about how DOGE might just break NFPs, and a toppy market with it… Summarised in the thread, Substack post in the link below 1/7 open.substack.com/pub/random…

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@MacroCharts shared a great free post with a chart I liked, showing that it could be a beleaguered semiconductor sector that breaks the camel’s back 6/7 open.substack.com/pub/macroc…
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But maybe it’ll be DOGE that breaks the back of NFPs, which breaks the back of growth concerns, which breaks the back of semis, which finally breaks the camel’s back? 7/7
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Free markets update for you all: - DeepSeek driving rates lower thoughts - Looking ahead to Thursday’s ECB - Taking off 2s5s and 10s30s gilt steepeners - Some thoughts on the BOJ open.substack.com/pub/random…
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More negative news for the UK from Reuters: “Growth in pay settlements fell sharp late last year, exp. to cool further 2025; survey showed firms under pressure due the Labour’s increase in payroll taxes” 1/2
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Could confirm the caveat I pointed out in last night’s post regarding the jump in private sector wage growth 2/2 substack.com/@randomwalking/…
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Today saw the UK rates market continue its rapid comeback from the wobble it had to start the year. I cover today’s moves and a trade idea optimising risk/reward on how the market is pricing BOE rate cuts. Follow the link below to the substack open.substack.com/pub/random…
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This morning’s UK data might put the BOE in a bit of a bind, with wage growth continuing to show upward strength but evidence of weaker employment going forward… 1/4
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BUT monthly payrolls were a chunky -47k vs -8k expected. As I’ve been flagging in my posts, business survey data has been extremely pessimistic and this data corroborates that. 3/4
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So we have wage inflationary data vs a deteriorating employment market. This is a troublesome combination for the BOE if it continues. Keen to hear any insights from @MrMBrown if you have a sec!? 4/4
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