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I find Gemini so much easier to use than Claude for anything but very technical coding and it’s a fraction of the cost
Don’t really see how for most non coding applications Claude is still so far ahead in brand perception (and revenue momentum)
Agentic coding big swing factor
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$300b is a lot of money
BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 JD Vance confirms that Iran will get $300 billion for war damages
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Most everyone I know buying a home has parental support
Even my friends in 30s in finance with a lot in savings, the wife’s family contributes to their home purchase so they can have a bigger home today
Housing market >$500K is boomer wealth effect. Has devalued wages a lot
Young adults: You aren’t just competing with other young adults for housing
You’re competing with their wealthy parents
(Meanwhile, just 12% of Baby Boomers received financial help from parents, so they had a more level playing field)
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@TimDuy @NickTimiraos
wealth effect is just so pervasive as an economic trend
elephant in the room
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Best evidence there is a deal
Trump praising Iran leadership
Jun 14
TRUMP SAYS HE NEVER SOUGHT REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN, CALLING THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP THE MOST RATIONAL GROUP HE HAS DEALT WITH IN THREE ROUNDS OF ENGAGEMENT. - WSJ
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A lesson that no one will learn from the Iran conflict (and trade war) is that our chronic inflation problem makes the US very weak
We have no ability to do anything hard because of how fragile the inflation situation is
Fiscal and monetary policy just bleeds into everything
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Fun chart to be reminded of into Kevin “inflation is a choice” Warsh’s first meeting as the chair
Also recently learned that Powell had all his personal wealth in stocks the last 10 years whereas Warsh is invested in HFs and T-bills
Thought that was notable
It’s actually pretty insane how far the CPI index has diverged from its 40yr trend
The total price level is the only thing that matters is to Americans
And it’s absolutely vertical
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Core PCE inflation is not going below 3% for a very long time
Health insurance costs are the largest weight in core PCE
Average Health Insurance Plan To Increase 25% to $33,750 in 2027
Health Insurers Nationwide Seeking 22% to 25% Rate Hikes in 2027 Due to Rising Health Care Costs and Reduced Enrollment.
2027
Individual - $11,670
Family (4) - $33,750
2026
Individual - $9,300
Family (4) - $27,000
$UNH
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Trump has turned every day in the market a reality TV show plot line
He can’t go a day if there isn’t a new conflict which he both creates and resolves, but the end nothing actually changes
Iran war is slowing so we need some new conflict; a new fake crisis, he’s the center of
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Every week is “flood the zone” media strategy and every conflict is “art of the deal”
Make some absurd request, counterparty says no, go back to prior status quo if not worse
The one really big change has been NATO & EU actually being forced to spend on defense
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Great slide from @TruthGundlach showing how the only other period where we had PMI employment & prices measures this high without hikes was in the mid 70s
Burns cut because Nixon pressured him. We all know how dumb that was yet everyone believes Warsh will repeat the mistake
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I’m am surprised AI trade not even blinking on this
Know several firms that are very large lab customers who have started throttling spend
Agentic coding seems unstoppable but that’s what half of the growth?
*META PLANS TO CRACK DOWN ON EMPLOYEE TOKEN USE: INFORMATION
Oh boy. $META planning to impose limits on employee token usage due to high costs.
Tokenmaxxing is over
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This agentic coding cohort really driving so much of the growth tho
Jun 12
AI spending is massively skewed toward a small share of power users.
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2020: Covid
2021: Retail mania & negative real rates
2022: Fed has to correct for being insane
2023: regional banking crisis => Fed panic cutting despite inflation
2024: (the only semi normal year)
2025: Liberation Day
2026: Never ending Iran war
Investing this whole time:
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