High hopes for this cutting board. Should be 12.5” x 21”.

Yes, macroeconomic policy choices were the main cause of the 2021-2022 inflation. My modest attempt on this issue: mercatus.org/research/workin…

Narrator: "Money will exchange hands."

Nothing says "no inflation like" $26 meal "deals," right?

Through the last 8 months, Core PCE will have annualized 3.8%. So long as growth and the labor market remain on at least decent footing, more Fed officials are going to be considering hikes soon

we live in age of great moral panics about things that don’t matter and zero moral outrage over some of the most egregious societal sins we’ve ever seen

In his hearing, Warsh said there is no reason to talk if the Fed doesn’t do anything new.

Maybe no more of a coincidence than gold going vertical after Jackson Hole.

They die and pass on assets to heirs who buy houses, stocks , cars, and travel. And the demand for health care and leisure is basically infinite.

The fact that this says the probability of finding a job is less than the first year of the pandemic should tell you the survey is garbage.

I'm finally reading Dune. This quote, which is in the first few pages, hits hard: "Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them."

"No!! You can't hike because of oil going higher!" they all said as they got shredded on their SOFR positions.

A collapse in the global population looks increasingly inevitable. Fertility rates have fallen below replacement in more than 66% of nations. No policy intervention has substantially reversed this trend. And technological progress seems to be accelerating it. A smaller, weirder world is on its way vox.com/politics/491167/ai-s…

I am beginning to think that the Fed literally has a rolodex of only firms that claim they can't raise prices. Some sample selection bias in its anecdotal evidence collection.

We will all become coders of apps no one wants.

It would actually be quite funny if markets crash because they were facilitating what it was created for...raising capital for speculative investments...as opposed to continually going up on pure speculation

lol

“The price spiral in assets nurtured a shift in personal values as embodied in an increasingly commonplace tendency among individuals and companies alike to worship money above all else“

This *2021* Waller speech makes for interesting reading today. At the time, Fed doves had been pointing to trimmed mean measures of inflation to argue against overreacting to spot inflation. Waller's point was that serially excluding 'one-off' outliers assumes no new one-offs take their place—a fallacy that, in hindsight, anticipated how the transitory framing failed. "The moral of this little example is that one needs to be careful when selectively ignoring data series—be it used car prices, food and energy prices, or household surveys of inflation expectations. All of these series convey important information about the evolution of inflation, and one should exhibit caution in dismissing data as outliers. We must keep our eyes open to inflationary pressures, wherever they come from, with consistency and rigor and stand ready to adjust policy if we conclude that such a change is warranted." federalreserve.gov/newsevent…

It’s really incredible the absolute AI GARBAGE that people are comfortable sending to their coworkers and bosses There’s a good chance productivity will actually *decrease* as AI adoption increases because everyone is busy wading through AI slop

ISM services. Sounds inflationary.