Always check the denominator. Base rates too while you’re at it.

Joined December 2015
623 Photos and videos
RGBernman retweeted
fun fact: in just about every legal system, you aren't allowed to defend against your vandalism and sabotage charges by saying "i was stopping something terrible inside". Try bombing an abortion clinic and putting on this defense.
This is barbaric. They were not permitted to explain to the jury why they carried out the attack on the Elbit factory - which makes the weapons that kill Palestinian children. And the jury was never told they would be sentenced as terrorists. /1
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All of this.
Yes, @mehdirhasan, we should ignore them. Each one failed to apply the legal standards as required. Amnesty: “However, its [ICJ] rulings on inferring intent can be read extremely narrowly, in a manner that would potentially preclude a state from having genocidal intent alongside one or more additional motives or goals in relation to the conduct of its military operations. As outlined below, Amnesty International considers this an overly cramped interpretation of international jurisprudence and one that would effectively preclude a finding of genocide in the context of an armed conflict.” B’tselem: “This report relies on a broader analytical framework…” The UN Commission of Inquiry did not assess reasonable alternative explanations. The only mention of Hamas’ tunnel infrastructure was to discount the tunnel under the European hospital that Mohammed Sinwar was killed in (and where he directed acts harmful to the “enemy” [e.g. Israel]). The International Association of Genocide Scholars (of which I’m a dues paying member) did not assess reasonable alternative explanations and discount them (which would defeat the only reasonable inference test). Human Rights Watch did not actually assess genocide, it said that they concluded acts of genocide without any assessment. And important to note: Amos Goldberg and Omer Bartov are historians who are not qualified to assess the legal elements of the crime of genocide. Citing to them is a logical fallacy of an appeal to authority that makes zero sense. Not a single accuser assesses the requirements of the Geneva Conventions, particularly GCIV 19 & 28, and API 51(7). Without understanding the implications of these articles one cannot conclude that the only reasonable inference is genocide. If each accuser refuses to apply the jurisprudence as it stands today to make their conclusion, the problem is that they have a predetermined conclusion, and that they are fitting an analysis to that conclusion. This is fundamentally flawed. So, yes, we should ignore all of them. If you must rely on a confirmation bias with fundamentally flawed analyses that are devoid of the legal analysis that is required today, without being honest about the shift in the jurisprudence that they all require, the problem here is you. I can state that Israel hasn’t committed genocide under the jurisprudence because I can measure alternative reasonable explanations for Israel’s conduct. None of your citations attempted to do this required analysis. Genocide is not what you want it to be to convict the Jewish state who had its people taken hostage and Hamas, PIJ, and even Palestinian civilians going door to door slaughtering innocent people because of their membership in either the Israeli or Jewish groups. The more we do this the more we excuse Hamas for its crimes (including genocide), hostage taking, sexual violence, etc. that it committed against the Israeli people, but also its crimes it has committed against the Palestinian people that purposefully inflicted higher incidental harm to them (human shielding, diversion, torture, persecution, murder, etc.). Mehdi so badly wants Israel to be guilty of the crime Hamas committed that he will excuse Hamas from culpability for its crimes against Palestinians that would fundamentally negate genocidal intent for Israel (as confirmed by a UN report this last week, by the way). Mehdi is an evil person, as are all those who portend to care about Palestinians while ignoring Hamas just so they can blame Israel.
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RGBernman retweeted
Imagine spending the last few years chanting and crying "Free Palestine!" and believing that Hamas are "freedom fighters!" only for more and more footage like this to emerge of Hamas slaughtering Gazans. And once again, I will repeat the following. They cry about a "genocide" in Gaza, yet ironically there is not a single piece of footage equivalent to the footage below which clearly shows IDF soldiers treating Gazans in this way. Why is that? Perhaps it's because the whole "genocide" narrative was pushed by the perpetrators of the October 7th massacre in order to influence the feeble and weak little minds of window lickers in the West to parrot their deranged narrative. H/T @MorEdge_Insight x.com/MorEdge_Insight/status…

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RGBernman retweeted
This is my favorite argument. In Hiroshima, roughly 140k people died due to the nuclear bomb out of 350k. That’s 40% of the city. In Nagasaki, 80k people died out of 263k. That’s 30% of the city. In Gaza, 73k people have died (according to GHM) out of 2.3 million. That’s about 3% of the population. A substantial percentage of that are terrorists. So Israel has dropped an amount of bombs on Gaza that exceeds the power of the nuclear bombs we dropped on Japan and yet the death toll is far lower both proportionally and on a raw numbers basis. How is that possible if Israel is committing genocide? Maybe it’s because they’re not.
One of the most brutal scenes in human history has been leaked. The amount of explosives that Israel dropped on the Gaza Strip exceeded the power of the two atomic bombs that the United States dropped on Japan at the end of World War II. A video that the world must never forget.
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Following the publication of the Gaza Mortality Study in The Lancet, Prof. Sergio DellaPergola and I submitted a formal response highlighting several critical methodological concerns. Happy to see that The Lancet took our comments seriously enough to publish them - and today they appeared on the Lancet Global Health site (link in the first comment).
¹ A couple of weeks ago, I promised a deep-dive into the recent study led by @Michael_Spagat, which claimed to estimate violent and non-violent deaths in Gaza since the war began, based on a survey conducted by @KShikaki. It took more time than I expected — because once I began examining the survey itself, it became clear that the obvious methodological flaws I noticed while reading the preprint paled in comparison to the can of worms lurking in the raw data. 🧵
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RGBernman retweeted
This guy has written probably hundreds of tweets about Platner and works in the media and now says he knows nothing about Platner's actual views because of the media x.com/i/status/2064771872667…

I know the names of two of Graham Platner's ex girlfriends but almost none of his policy views. This media coverage is dog shit.
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RGBernman retweeted
The stabbing at Penn Station on Sunday is yet another story of a frequent offender allowed to remain on the street until he kills or seriously maims someone. Every time, people ask: why does this keep happening? As I argue @thedispatch, you're not being deceived. Frequent offenders make up a massive share of crime. The 10 percent of the population most prone to offending accounts for 66 percent of all crime, in one estimate. But the problem is that in many places, our system isn't designed to recognize that different criminals are different. We discriminate based on offense rather than based on offender. We decline to charge misdemeanors (even when there are 60 of them); our habitual offender laws are old and outdated; our policing strategies react to calls rather than targeting prolific actors. Until our system actually recognizes the reality of offender concentration, we'll keep seeing brutal attacks like Sunday's. Read the whole piece 👇 thedispatch.com/article/crim…
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RGBernman retweeted
Isn’t it a pity that the real atrocities taking place in Sudan, Myanmar, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo don’t have expert camera crews and lighting, like the Hamas men doing Gaza.
With so much focus on Iran, and rightly so, wasn’t it crazy that Iran’s proxy Hamas, employed an entire film crew with lighting and a director, for thousands of “fake” videos from Gaza? (1/2)
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Why do leftists never find the speed bump sufficient to avoid dumb takes like this. Apologies to the Iranian protesters, I would trade this idiot’s citizenship card for any of you.
Iran's ability to check Israel's rogue barbarism is precisely the reason why the Israelis are so committed to its destruction.
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RGBernman retweeted
“Dismantling Israel” is not a thing. It is not an international law mechanism. There is no lawful process by which outsiders simply abolish a sovereign state against the will of its people and replace it with some imagined “state for all citizens. Israel is a UN member state. It has sovereignty, territorial integrity, a population, institutions, borders to defend, and the right of self-defence like every other state. So when people say “dismantle Israel,” they are usually hiding the operative question: by what means? Because if the citizens of Israel do not consent to the abolition of their state, then “dismantling” it requires coercion. And in the real world, in that region, with Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamic Jihad, and a century of violence against Jewish sovereignty, coercion means war, displacement, domination, and worse. South Africa was not abolished. Apartheid was abolished. Ending a racial hierarchy inside a state is not the same thing as dissolving the national self-determination of the Jewish people in the Middle East and pretending everyone will magically receive equal rights the next morning.
To claim that dismantling a state, a governing structure, means murdering the people who live there is beyond absurd. Apartheid South Africa was dismantled. The white people there were not mass-murdered. The state simply became a state for all its citizens, with equal rights.
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RGBernman retweeted
Replying to @JeremiahDJohns
Communist China literally erasing >10 million Muslim Uyghur people. Western Liberals: "Free Palestine" x.com/JeremiahDJohns/status/…

Reporting from the Financial Times on Xinjiang remains incredibly grim: * In some areas, 90% of children are taken from parents to be educated in boarding schools where they aren't allowed to speak Uyghur * Officials monitor who eats during Ramadan and report those who skip meals * Basic items like prayer mats and religious text are considered illegal contraband * Adult Uyghur women are pressured to marry Han Chinese men, and there are official goals to sterilize a certain % of them. * Xinjiang has the largest prison capacity in the world relative to population * Huge numbers of Uyghur prisoners are now being shipped across the country in forced labor schemes, as a way to dodge Xinjiang sanctions/boycotts * The CCP shut down all 10 existing Uyghur-language publishers, none remain. They fed one university's book collection into a shredder. There's a lot going on the world, but it's worth remembering that China is still actively engaged in cultural genocide. They're barely even hiding it, they openly talk about the need to 'correct' Uyghur culture and create 'ethnic unity'. They are openly destroying an entire culture as efficiently as they can, cutting children off from parents, restricting language, restricting religious practice, forcing sterilizations and intermarriage, imprisoning anyone who resists the tiniest amount and shipping them out to forced labor factories. That is what the CCP is. ft.com/content/119d8c3a-e10f…
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RGBernman retweeted
Smotrich wasn't invited, he crashed the event. No Democrat marched with him and many Jewish leaders condemned his gatecrashing. The faction of the left that makes excuses for the guy with Nazi tattoos and other antisemites would do well to learn from that response.
If Democrats are going to take character seriously then they need to stop attending political marches with Smotrich. x.com/SarahLongwell25/status…
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RGBernman retweeted
Not caring about him wheeling six chicks at once when he was married is your choice Not caring that he pretends to be a populist when he went to one of the richest prep schools in America is your choice Not caring he went to war saying he always wanted to kill people is your choice Not caring he went to work for Blackwater after serving and now calls the army very dumb and stupid is your choice Not caring that he made fun of Purple Heart recipients is your choice Not caring that he jerks off in porta potties is your choice Not caring about all the shit he’s deleted on Reddit and he never thought would see the light of day and shows what a giant jackass is he is your choice Not caring that he is a Nazi is your choice but if you support him and promote him don’t ever lecture anybody about the moral high ground again because you are a piece of shit
I'd just say that if the reason you don't want to support a candidate is because he and his wife chose not to share that they went through marriage counseling to deal with infidelity, that's your choice. But I do think there are other factors in the race that will have more of a direct impact on your life.
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RGBernman retweeted
Question: Which of these are genocides? 3% = Percent of populace of Gaza killed in the war 2.5% = Percent of populace of US killed in the civil war 4% = Percent of populace of Europe killed in WW2 33% = Percent of Muslim men in Srebrenica killed in 12 days 50-75% = Percent of Armenians in Turkey killed by the Young Turks 67% = Percent of European Jews killed by the Nazis Do you get it now or do you need to call a friend for help?
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RGBernman retweeted
The U.S. decision to distance itself from UN bodies it views as systematically biased against Israel should surprise no one. Between 2015 and 2024, the UN General Assembly adopted 173 resolutions against Israel and 80 against all other countries combined. In 2024 alone, it passed 17 resolutions against Israel and just 1 against Iran. Freedom House scores Israel 73/100 ("Free") and Iran 10/100 ("Not Free"). Iran reportedly executed at least 975 people in 2024. You do not need to be pro-Israel to see the problem. This is not a human rights agenda. It is institutional bias.
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RGBernman retweeted
It’s one thing to call for a two-state solution. It’s another thing to present Israel as the sole obstacle to that solution. This is what it looks like when an elected official works to actively misinform the American public. A 🧵…
Democrats have provided reflexive & unconditional support to Netanyahu & Israeli governments, even as they undermined the values we claimed to stand for.   It's time to end taxpayer-funded support & condition arms sales to end the occupation & salvage a 2-state solution. nytimes.com/2026/05/26/opini…
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RGBernman retweeted
I have a question. The "Palestinian" flag contains the colors of dynasties from Baghdad, Damascus, Cairo, and Mecca. If Palestinians are from the Land of Israel, then why don't they have a flag that represents the Land of Israel?
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There it is.
Fuck it. If antizionism = antisemitism then so be it. Sick of these freaks trying to hold this crap over my head.
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RGBernman retweeted
There was no Palestinian national identity under the Ottomans, so there were no demands for a Palestinian state Sure, there was a slowly emerging Arab nationalist movement — largely among Christians, mind you — but there was no coherent sense of "Palestiniannness" To the degree that Palestinian national identity emerged in the 1930s-1960s, it was almost entirely based on an opposition to Zionism That makes Palestinian nationalism — whether real or manufactured — structurally unique in that it's the only nationalism that doesn't seek self-determination, so much as the negation of another people's self-determination
Why didn't the Palestinians request a state from the Turks when the Ottomans controlled the area?
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RGBernman retweeted
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