Lock Them Up and Throw Away the Key?
Or Follow a Blackstonian Path?
Roughly 5–10% of the general population (often closer to 5–8%) is responsible for about 50–70% of all offenses, with even higher concentrations for serious or violent crime (some longitudinal research finds ~1% accounting for over 60% of violent convictions).
Let’s suppose we have an "incarceration dial" ranging from 1 to 10:
At 1, a draconian police state: virtually everyone arrested is incarcerated, often with little or no evidence.
At 10, extreme tolerance: almost no one is ever incarcerated, even with overwhelming, irrefutable evidence of guilt.
The ideal dial position lies at the point where no innocent people are jailed, while still incarcerating *enough* guilty individuals - especially the chronic, high-rate offenders who drive most crime - to protect society. In practice, this means accepting that some guilty people will initially go free. Releasing one-time or low-rate offenders often causes limited societal harm, as many do not re-offend. Meanwhile, repeat offenders - particularly the small chronic group responsible for the majority of serious crime - will likely be arrested again. Over time, accumulating evidence (or a more serious offense) enables legitimate incarceration.
Let’s say the ideal dial position is around 5: a balanced system with high evidentiary standards to protect the innocent, where a few guilty people (especially lower-rate ones) occasionally escape punishment, but chronic offenders are gradually removed through repeated arrests and eventual conviction.
Now, what happens if we keep turning the dial toward 10 (extreme tolerance) - California-style.
At some point, the system becomes so reluctant to incarcerate that even many repeat and chronic offenders are routinely released with minimal consequences. High-rate offenders remain on the streets longer, leading to increased victimization, eroded public safety, and a potential slide toward disorder.
Here's the crucial insight:
The relationship between leniency (turning the dial toward 10) and the release/ongoing activity of repeat/chronic offenders is *nonlinear*. <---
It features thresholds or tipping points, where small further increases in tolerance can trigger disproportionately larger rises in repeat offending, recidivism rates, or overall crime.
As the dial rises:
From 5 to ~6–7: Mostly low-rate/one-time offenders gain more leniency → modest increases (~5–15%) in repeat offending overall, since chronic offenders are still cycled back in eventually.
Beyond ~7–8: Chronic offenders stay free much longer → their high offending rate compounds → community effects emerge (more disorder, fear, normalization of crime, weakened social controls) → recidivism and crime rates can jump steeply (potentially 30–100% relative increases in affected areas or categories, according to neighborhood-level studies).
This *nonlinear* dynamic explains why rapid or broad shifts toward leniency can backfire if they cross critical thresholds - especially when they reduce the perceived certainty of consequences for high-rate offenders.
The goal must be smart calibration of the dial: tough enough on chronic threats to prevent tipping points, humane enough to avoid injustice.