India–US partnership Hardware (cooperation domains) strengthens; Software (permissibility levers) constrains; Enduring deficits cap. Chapter I: The Security Deficit Asymmetry of harm: US system optimisation upstream; Indian cost absorption downstream. futurisindia.com/india-us-ar…

To put it bluntly, since 2017, India has chosen the worst of the available paths. By aligning itself with the US, it has obtained almost none of the resources that would strengthen its strategic autonomy and has instead grown more dependent. By confronting China, it has lost manufacturing capital and technology that could once have been acquired effortlessly. Counter-intuitively, these flows of capital and technology—though they appeared to deepen dependence—were in fact the essential foundation for Atmanirbhar Bharat. India now finds itself stranded between the two powers and exposed as collateral damage, as Marco Rubio puts it, in their strategic contest. This has left it vulnerable to American pressure on multiple fronts—tariffs, trade in Russian oil, killings in the Strait of Hormuz, and access to advanced AI models. Washington did all the above with little concern for India’s basic dignity or core interests. The roots of this grand misjudgement lie in India’s long-held belief that the US would always remain dominant and that the safest course was therefore to stand with the strong. That assumption is now being questioned even inside the Trump administration, throwing India’s strategic planning into disarray and leaving it without credible contingency plans. Three uncomfortable realities have become clear: 1) an America gripped by anxiety is unlikely to offer its partners meaningful support; it is rather more inclined to treat partners as expendable assets to be drawn upon when needed. Yes, India is simply seen as the bloodbag. 2) The path dependence created by long-term reliance on American financial systems, software ecosystems and geopolitical arrangements has become a potent instrument of leverage precisely because India has few realistic alternatives. 3) for reasons of elite izzatl and face-saving, Indian policymakers have so far refused to undertake the necessary recognitive rerouting—above all, to seriously contemplate the possibility that China may be prevailing in the broader contest and to adjust its choices accordingly.

My latest highlights the widespread US foreign interference, millions of casualties from its post 9/11 wars, & the enabling of terror by America . India must strategically confront this frenemy superpower, & master narrative management like the US. sundayguardianlive.com/opini…

Note the date I started writing about ‌democracy in the West, starting with the US. The relationship was warm & the state visit yet to happen. I will post all the articles I have written since in this🧵. Ahead of time means not many ppl read/remember. :) x.com/semubhatt/status/16431…

The problem is, we are reactive, not proactive. Media/people will spend days outraging against the West when they finger us, but won't think of consistently creating a strategic narrative. See the above thread and my articles of one and half years. x.com/semubhatt/status/17904…

As Anthropic trends & Indians worry about money for sovereign AI revolution, here’s the money. If only India starts using it as Transformation Capital instead of atomising it into thousands of projects. @narendramodi @nsitharaman @TVMohandasPai @svembu x.com/FuturisIndia/status/19…

Who did they pay off to get the Venezuelan oil import exemption during the Biden era? Their best friend, Hillary, who I assume would have an influence on the administration? Bigger q for you @propublica, is every American administration for sale? x.com/propublica/status/2065…

I wonder how Anthropic researchers and engineers who aren’t US citizens but were on the Fable team would be feeling right now. They can’t access the very thing they helped create.

As Anthropic trends & Indians worry about money for sovereign AI revolution, here’s the money. If only India starts using it as Transformation Capital instead of atomising it into thousands of projects. @narendramodi @nsitharaman @TVMohandasPai @svembu x.com/FuturisIndia/status/19…

“For a country of a billion, we are a data mine, but we are blissfully ignoring the fact that data is the 21st century’s oil as well as its deadliest weapon. It is both precious, as well as dangerous, and should be handled with utmost care.” x.com/semubhatt/status/19366…