Building the Company Brain, one at a time | AI Fluent
Joined April 2021
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The ZEC Bear Case
If you're serious about Zcash, you need to steelman the risks too.
Here are my seven major risks for $ZEC: 🚨👇
1) Nobody actually cares about privacy. Every prior privacy narrative has ended badly.
2) ZEC treasuries (DATs) pumped the price up but could become forced sellers into thin liquidity on the way down.
3) Inflation runs at 4.2% until Nov 2028, nearly double Bitcoin's current rate.
4) Regulators have delisted privacy coins before, and the political window cuts both ways.
4) The roadmap (Tachyon, Post-Quantum, Crosslink) is mostly unshipped.
5) The Private SoV narrative is purely memetic. ZEC has no cash flows, no meaningful fee revenue, and the price is purely a function of how many people believe that story.
6) ZK privacy tech could commoditize across other ecosystems (ETH, L2s, Solana) eroding Zcash's #1 Schelling-point.
7) @zodl_co VC cap table and @cypherpunk targeting 5% of ZEC supply raise real governance concentration risks.
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Btw, here's my ZEC Bull Case
x.com/seppmos/status/2065664…
The Zcash Bull Case
Wrapping up my $ZEC series, here is the full bull case in one post. 🐂👇
1) Same 21M cap, same PoW, same halvings as Bitcoin, with the one property BTC structurally cannot add: cryptographic privacy.
2) The shielded pool is a structural supply sink, now above 30% of circulating supply, up 400% in 18 months, and the holders inside don't sell.
3) The only asset that solves all three hard asset properties simultaneously: store of value, privacy, and cross boarder portability.
4) Shielded ZEC is already quantum-recoverable, with full post-quantum transition on track for 2027.
5) Winner-take-most Schelling point for private money. Every coin shielded strengthens the anonymity set for everyone, compounding the network effect.
6) A 1-5% rotation of serious BTC and ETH whale capital would already be massively bullish at current market cap.
7) $25M raise led by Paradigm and a16z, with Multicoin, Balaji, and the Winklevosses all exposed.
8) The only community in crypto that will defend end-to-end encryption under serious external pressure — values you simply cannot fork.
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The Zcash Bull Case
Wrapping up my $ZEC series, here is the full bull case in one post. 🐂👇
1) Same 21M cap, same PoW, same halvings as Bitcoin, with the one property BTC structurally cannot add: cryptographic privacy.
2) The shielded pool is a structural supply sink, now above 30% of circulating supply, up 400% in 18 months, and the holders inside don't sell.
3) The only asset that solves all three hard asset properties simultaneously: store of value, privacy, and cross boarder portability.
4) Shielded ZEC is already quantum-recoverable, with full post-quantum transition on track for 2027.
5) Winner-take-most Schelling point for private money. Every coin shielded strengthens the anonymity set for everyone, compounding the network effect.
6) A 1-5% rotation of serious BTC and ETH whale capital would already be massively bullish at current market cap.
7) $25M raise led by Paradigm and a16z, with Multicoin, Balaji, and the Winklevosses all exposed.
8) The only community in crypto that will defend end-to-end encryption under serious external pressure — values you simply cannot fork.
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Privacy is The Last PVE
Crypto has had four missions:
1) prove it works
2) make it programmable
3) make it scale
4) privacy
Yet privacy got left behind along the way.
Today, privacy is the only mission every tribe can rally behind without a war.
Many call it the last PVE.
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Crosslink adds a Proof-of-Stake finality layer on top of Zcash’s existing Proof-of-Work chain.
PoW keeps producing blocks, while PoS locks them in permanently. Making deep reorgs and 51% attacks impossible.
And the elegant part: staking will only be possible from the shielded pool, so the yield incentive should pull coins into privacy rather than onto exchanges, further strengthening the privacy properties of $ZEC.
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I've spent years in Cosmos following @zkDragon's journey with Osmosis.
It was crystal clear that he was among the most cracked devs in the ecosystem.
The moment I noticed Dev getting more involved in Zcash, I knew something special is going on there.
Ironically, being in Cosmos offered a unique opportunity to get onto the ZEC train early, if you paid close attention to what was happening behind the scenes.
One thing I learned over the years is to not stubbornly bet on ideas, but rather on humble, top tier and high agency devs, working on the hardest problems out there.
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Quantum Recoverability
Most blockchains carry a ticking quantum clock.
Shielded $ZEC already sidesteps the main risk because transaction data isn't on-chain, so there's nothing to harvest and decrypt later.
This means quantum-recoverability is already live for shielded ZEC.
Full post-quantum transition on track for 2027 ⚛️
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The Social Layer Moat
Anyone can fork the code, but nobody can fork the values.
The only durable moat in crypto is a battle-hardened community that has gone through hell and back defending a specific property.
Bitcoiners religiously defend the 21M cap.
Cypherpunks vigorously hold the e2e encryption line under serious pressure.
You can't clone that 🏰
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Privacy = Money at Rest
Most people think privacy comes from making a private transaction. It doesn't.
Privacy comes from holding funds in the shielded pool, untouched, for weeks and month. Shielding right before you spend leaks patterns an AI can reconstruct.
Humans are pattern-emitting creatures, AIs are pattern-seeing creatures.
Time is the only defense 🕰️
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Much watch episode for everyone who's interested in the future of ICM, decision markets and ownership coins.
A real cult with outstanding minds and long-term thinkers is forming around MetaDAO.
Jun 4
Ownership Forum #2 w/ @blocmates 🏛 ft. @MetaDAOProject @TheiaResearch @dba_xyz @novora_ x.com/i/broadcasts/1lJQRRqQp…
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True Fungibility
Money is only useful to the extent it has no history attached.
Bitcoin's transaction history is fully traceable, meaning any coin can be tainted or black-listed.
Shielded $ZEC has no history.
That's not a values preference, it's a first-principles requirement of money.
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The Shielded Pool
The most important Zcash metric isn't price.
It's the shielded pool where $ZEC becomes cryptographically untraceable.
~1M shielded at Zashi/ZODL launch (late 2024)
~5M shielded today (>30% of supply)
400% in 18 months.
The people who shield don't sell. 🛡️
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Zcash: Private Bitcoin
Bitcoin gave us hard money. Zcash gives us private money.
Same 21M cap, same proof-of-work, same halvings, plus the property of privacy that Bitcoin structurally cannot add.
"Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin." @naval
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Interesting take by @jswihart on the future of transparent addresses on Zcash.
"Ultimately, I think T-addresses get deprecated at some point and go away. They're not necessary."
INTERVIEW: “ZODL is to zcash:native what Coinbase was to bitcoin:native .”
@jswihart joins Bankless to unpack ZEC's awakening and why @Zcash may be entering its most important chapter yet.
We cover:
- @zodl_app's plan for Zcash
- the rise of shielded ZEC
- privacy in the AI era
- why Bitcoiners are paying attention
- making private money too big to kill
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
4:17 Privacy in the AI Era
6:19 Crypto’s Missing Privacy Layer
9:49 The Political Fight for Privacy
14:42 Can Crypto Retain Privacy?
16:47 From Zashi to ZODL
19:48 The Zcash Reawakening
21:41 Balaji, Funding, and the Mission
24:49 Product Market Fit for Shielded ZEC
27:51 ZODL's Role in the Zcash Stack
29:36 The Zcash Roadmap
32:56 What Is ZEC and is it Undervalued?
36:56 The Shielded Pool Explained
45:12 The $25M ZODL Raise
47:16 Compliance and Shielded ZEC
51:25 Institutions vs Cypherpunk Values
53:58 Personal Privacy in an AI World
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New ATH in Weekly Combined Volume on @AviciMoney
▶️ $1.87M weekly volume
- Up 14% WoW
- Up 98% MoM
$AVICI is ramping up 📶
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solana:BANKJmvhT8tiJRsBSS1n2HryMBPvT5Ze4HU95DUAmeta is looking good here
- New ATH in weekly volume past week
- On the way to break another ATH this week
- Ownership Coin at $7.7M FDV
- Team is locked in, long term incentive aligned
Peoples Bank
ALT Weekly card spending volume on Avici
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