Imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds catastrophic. Now imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 3-day working week. Sounds wonderful. Yet to a first approximation these are the same thing. marginalrevolution.com/margi…

Many don't appreciate that several more years of AI progress is already baked in, as compute that *has already been purchased* comes online. So *at a minimum* we should expect agents that can complete multiweek coding projects, with superhuman hacking and near frontier scientific & mathematical abilities, are significantly better at much real world knowledge work, pretty good at designing bioweapons etc. While there could be a financial crash, I don't see a realistic scenario where AI isn't a huge deal. In fact, deployment seems far behind what's already possible with the current tech, so even if progress stopped completely here, AI would be far more widespread two years from now.

Holy moly: Sam Altman told Axios in a half-hour interview that AI superintelligence is so close, so mind-bending, so disruptive that America needs a new social contract. - It's on the scale of the Progressive Era in the early 1900s, and the New Deal during the Great Depression. - Altman warns: widespread job loss, cyberattacks, social upheaval, machines man can't control - "soon-to-be-released AI models could enable a world-shaking cyberattack this year. "I think that's totally possible," Altman said. "I suspect in the next year, we will see significant threats we have to mitigate from cyber."

SAM ALTMAN: “A kid born today will never be smarter than AI, ever … We will think how bad those people of the 2000’s had it.”