My fastball was 98mph. Kids now ask if you pitched 100.
Joined August 2022
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President Trumpās Birthday is tomorrow. š¤£
Jun 13
TRUMP ON IRAN: DEAL IS SCHEDULED TO GET SIGNED TOMORROW
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A dynamic Iām watching post-SpaceX IPO
The market has finally received a direct vehicle for the largest player in the space economy. For yearsā¦ capital has flowed into proxies. Many such that are retail sweethearts & because investors had no public SpaceX alternative.
Now that changes
Some institutions will likely rotate capital out of proxy trades and directly into SpaceX. We are already seeing evidence of portfolio rebalancing across the space basket following the IPO. It will continue. Pair trades will surface and hedging will be wound up.
However, the more interesting trade may be relative value.
As SpaceX moves beyond a $2T valuation, investors may choose to remain long RKLB or ASTS while hedging with a SpaceX short (Just an example, relax)
The thesis is.. you own the smaller companies where revenue growth can compound faster while using SpaceX as the valuation hedge. Simple
The result is that SpaceX becomes the benchmark
Every company in the sector will increasingly be valued relative to SpaceX rather than simply benefiting from lead up enthusiasm.
Side note:
Anthropic and OpenAI entering the public markets opens an entirely different discussion.
While it would undoubtedly be one of the most anticipated IPO events in history, public equity markets can only absorb so much new issuance and distribution. The challenge becomes even more pronounced when the companies seeking liquidity command some of the highest valuation premiums in the market.
Capital is not infinite. Every dollar allocated to a new mega-cap IPO is a dollar that must come from somewhere else. As a result, large-scale AI offerings could create meaningful capital rotation across growth, software, semiconductor, & broader technology equities.
Long term, the opportunity is likely enormous. Short term, the marketās ability to digest that magnitude of supply is a more nuanced conversation.
Have a good weekend š
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Jesseš retweeted
Jun 12
I think you meant $1B. But, yes. I agree. Firmly on the shit list.
Re: āthat is the point, not the problemā is such an arrogant statement.
If DawnOS was part of the plan all along (as that arrogant response implies) then WHY THE HELL WASNāT DAWNOS BROUGHT TO MARKET WITH THE Z3?
I can answer that question in a positive manner, one that would be consistent with the development path of a cash-strapped company that was on the verge of bankruptcy before Cerberus recognized the potential.
But I want Joe to do it. He owes us that.
Because we also recognized the potential, believed in management - an him, personally - and have championed this company unwaveringly for LAST THREE YEARS.
In my book, that deserves far more than what weāve been getting. Which is a lot of nothing.
I donāt give a ratās *ss about the trolls. Joe is big boy and should be firmly able to ignore these clowns while speaking to his loyal retail base.
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Tomorrow will be historic.
Enjoy it. Donāt make any short-term decisions. The equity markets have never seen such IPO. But resilience will be victorious as it has been this decade.
āSpaceā basket just got infinitely more crowed.
Letās make some money. š
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$EOSE
Eos needs an Investor Day 2.0 & the true vision towards 2030. Showcase your line of sight.
The āBlack Boxā has gotten way too large.
$24B in āPipelineā to just $645M in backlog. If you unpack it thatās over 100GWh thatās been āidentifiedā.
->>> Yet I canāt model 2027.
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Closed SPY puts for a 27% gain at the open. Sharing this cause itās interesting.
Into yesterdayās close the option structure had become heavily distorted as IV & Greeks failed to fully normalize the recovery.
The plan was inefficiencies would recalibrate at the open, but a lag
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