75% of Hyperliquid perps traders are unprofitable 99.9% of Hyperliquid spot hodloors are profitable

Jeff’s close friend at university was Vlad’s co-founder at Lunchclub The world is not that big

75% of Hyperliquid addresses are net unprofitable. When you see a trader-KOL with smart face on your feed, there is roughly a 3/4 chance that it lost money on perps. Once you understand how financial markets work, you will quit all discretional trading. Most .hl accounts you see in your feed are net unprofitable (go check their addresses) and the only ones profitable were either quantitatives (like @0xLoris) or were on the positive side of variance, i.e., luck (e.g., @NMTD8) p.s., if you solely rely on 'gut feeling' (luck), mathematically less painful for you would be playing a casino. A core reason discretionary traders suffer losses is market efficiency. In highly liquid and informationally dense markets, like commodities, large-cap cryptocurrencies, equities, and major indices, new information is priced into mark prices at remarkable speed. The news you just read? Already priced in. The technical indicator you rely on? Also priced in. Quantitative firms and exchanges operate with superior infrastructure, data access, and execution capabilities, making it exceptionally difficult (almost impossible) for manual traders to sustain an edge. Mathematically, the structure of these markets favor makers and systematic participants, while takers, particularly uninformed discretionary ones, face a persistent negative expected value, with the narrow exception of non-directional strategies with minimized costs, such as points farming. If you're an uniformed discretional trader (99.9% of readers), the most EV course of action may be counterintuitive but is well-supported by the data: 1) Delete all trading apps (esp. mobile ones) 2) Quit all trading 3) Be on the side of the profitable exchanges (i.e., get exposure to them via their coinized shares, such as $HYPE, $LIT, $BNB) 4) Become a maker (p.s., providing exit liquidity through AMMs or retail tools like treadfi is extremely negative expected value for you) Hyperliquid

About six months after the USDH proposal, Native Markets’ $USDH supply stands at $154.79 million across HyperEVM and HyperCore. Over the same period, Paxos-issued $USDG circulating supply has reached $1.862 billion, an increase of about $1.3 billion since the USDH proposal. Paxos USDG supply has grown by 8.4x more than Native Markets USDH during that timeframe.

Which Hyperliquid frontend do you use?

There is a correlation between personal psychology and “edge” in discretionary trading. Many people are too subjective in financial markets and build parallels between their personal real-life convictions and their trading behavior. For example, a person who values loyalty, such as loyalty to family, homeland, or beliefs, may also project these patterns onto their trading. Such a person may value “diamond hands,” hate selling or seeing others sell, treat their positions as part of their identity, and feel personally insulted when their positions are criticized. The reason over-subjective trading is long-term negative EV for you is that the market does not care about anything, including anyone’s opinions. Financial markets are highly complex machines that, in the end, transfer money from 'takers' to 'makers', from those who over-consume value to those who create and add value capital efficiently. Pure capitalism. That is why there are only three types of profitable traders: 1. Quantitative traders, with zero subjectivity, who solve inefficiencies. 2. Lucky traders, where variance has created a lucky streak during their trading. 3. Discretionary traders who minimize emotional subjectivity. These are basically a subtype of quants, but without complex algorithms and big data. The secret to being a profitable trader is either to be extremely lucky, which is almost impossible and statistically negative EV to rely on, or to be an observer who identifies inefficiencies and efficiently sells to takers. Remember: the market does not care what you think. Many people are simply better traders when they trade on paper because PnL, account balances, and holding positions introduce subjectivity and destroy their judgment. They start overthinking and asking themselves questions like, “What if I get liquidated?” which pushes them into becoming 'takers' and taking bad positions. Hyperliquid.

Resolv hack is one of the reasons why CeDeFi protocols are not good places to park your inventory for <10% APR, a small yield would not cover your exposure to hacks.

Lighter DAO will be the first tokenized Board of Directors. We will make sure to be part of it before the Bull Market starts!

most of the people fudding Lighter are those who discovered $HYPE at >$40. Lesson in here. all smart .hls I know are peacefully building. Not emotional because not underwater 🙃

Were pretty early to Unit/XYZ farming, but now I'm 90% sure that it would *not* launch the token. Generate fees & buy $HYPE may be the best approach any Hyperliquid-native project shall do, and Unit shows the standards, again. You don't need a token. Many sub-Himalayan (and .**) accounts are now hyping the hip-3 farming while sharing treadfi reflinks. However, one of the main principles of positive EV money management is to buy uncertainty and sell consensus. This approach may be unpopular and 'hated' (don't give a fuck about tards in comments), but you would always laugh last. Glad that we didn't touch anything except for publicly shorting the market since late Nov.

nice

$HYPE and other buyback tokens have large allocations for “future growth / community”, which may be used for incentives, aka reinvesting into business’ growth. There is no economical reason to incentivize anything in crypto, for now. So the best decision you can do with revenue is buyback own token and accumulate liquidity for future incentives (which eventually would bring more buybacks, if done smart!) Do you want Hyperliquid to buy Super Bowl ads and burn cash? Everybooody

What type of crypto B2C business doesn't make money by illegally raping retail? I don't know of any. Only aggregators (incl. data aggs) come to my mind!

I feel a lot of unprofessional retail will get rekt (always has been) on Pair Trading. 1) You are trying to trade incomparable type of assets. In ideal world, long productive (“SPX”) and short economically worthless (“BTC”) should have always worked, but it is obviously not. History showed many times that a performant asset in a specific (“short”) period of time doesn’t have to be more productive to the less performant assets. An asset grows in price when it has demand, not when its value goes up. I see it is becoming popular to Pair Trade productive crypto like HYPE against “worthless” ones like MON, SOL, etc While the traders trading this setup may be generally right about fundamentals, or even right in a specific period of time (especially during the Bear Market, when cryptocurrencies have a tendency of repricing to their fair value) the remaining common mistake is trading Value against Speculation. You are trying to trade Fair Value, same time betting on Price with leverage. Price is often ≠ Fair Value. The arbitrage in it is what you call Investment. This arbitrage can play against you in a short period of time, especially with leverage. Crypto market is very dumb and inefficient, and it is only a matter of time when Fair Value and Price are becoming misaligned, again. You would get liquidated while being fundamentally right. You may be profitable during the trend of Price -> Fair Value repricing, until it’s not. 2) Non-linear vs Linear exposure. Pair Trading, in its current form, is a scam. When you’re longing BTC, and shorting SOL, your overall position is not BTC/SOL. It is mathematically incorrect and your true exposure would be (BTC/USD)*contract_size_BTC-(SOL/USD)*contract_size_SOL, which is fundamentally different (linear when SOL/USD going down) curve from BTC/SOL (which is non-linear during SOL/USD going down) In other words, if SOL/USD decreases by 80% and BTC/USD stays at the same price, your "BTC/SOL" pair trade wouldn’t be worth 1/0.2=5x ( 400% PNL), but only 80% PNL. Same time the frontend would show you the Price Action of 400% growth for BTC/SOL. You thought you would get 5x on your trade, but it’s only 80%, a 5 times difference in this example. —— If you think that an asset A and asset B have a negative value correlation against each other, probably the most financially efficient decision for you would be: 1) Not putting them in one trade. Use different risk-management and price both of them against the Medium-Of-Exchange, not against each other. 2) Go with Put Options for the Asset B. Perps are great during strong short-term trends or short-term volatility events, but if you strongly believe that an asset B would have a trend of repricing to its “Fair Value”, aka “ZEROO”, buying options would be a better financial instrument for you. Don’t be exit liquidity for misleading builders and KOLs promoting them for shekels.

Say you sit 88,000 monkeys in front of a keyboard and a brokerage account and let them buy and sell stocks for 10 years. When it’s over, you look at the results and, surprise, one monkey crushed it. Never lost more than 3%. Exposed every rally, dodged every crash. Looks like a genius. But he’s not a genius. He’s just the luckiest monkey out of 88,000. If you hand that monkey real money tomorrow, it has no idea what it’s doing. It never did. It’s a coincidence wearing a lab coat.

I believe Retail Volume is the best metric for comparing perp exchanges. Orderbook Depth isn’t very useful because most exchanges don’t prioritize order-cancellation. As a result, market makers often don’t provide their full liquidity at once, as they keep size hidden to avoid getting taken by informed taker flow (toxic flow). So the displayed depth can be misleading vs the unrealized liquidity the venue really has On top of that, cancellation priority is very pro–market maker, as during flash crashes (like 10/10), MMs can pull bids, repost lower, and effectively make liquidations more expensive for traders. (The reason why Hyperliquid had the biggest candle for BTC on 10/10) Execution Cost has a similar issue. It’s basically “orderbook depth fees,” so if the depth is not representative, adding fees doesn’t make it a reliable comparison metric either Open Interest is heavily influenced by delta-neutral positions, while a directional trader comparing perp venues usually doesn’t care how much DN inventory is sitting on the exchange (At most, it might make ADL slightly less aggressive, but ADL is rare, so it’s not a very weightful factor) That’s why I mainly use Retail Volume (volume executed away from the oracle mid, i.e., not at Oracle Price, divided by 2) and maker fees when deciding which exchange to use for execution With high Retail Volume, I have higher chance that my maker order will be executed at fair or even better than the fair price (big EV on long distance) If an exchange has low retail volume, my maker order would simply be taken by an arbitrage bot and my maker order will be executed at worse price than current Oracle Price (would you short BTC at $70,000 when its price on other exchanges is $70,100?) Hyperliquid