Did we just enter a Bitcoin bear market? In my September market update I explained why "my short-to-medium term expectations are currently low." The price was $113K. And it was clear that despite recently setting a new high at $124K, we were losing momentum. Despite every good headline imaginable, despite tons of ETF and corporate buying... The Bitcoin bull was losing steam. Yesterday I shared my latest thoughts on where we are on StackWisely. Tl;dr: Yes we may have just had a trend change, and we may have to wait a while for that trend to play out. Read the full piece here for free: stackwisely.com/insights/did… How low could we ultimately go? I added a bear market projection feature to the dashboard yesterday to answer that question. Based on 73 historical instances when we were at a similar cycle index, we could bottom somewhere in the $40K range as early as April 2026. This sounds dramatically lower than I personally expect. But that's what the data says. Like all predictions, take this with a grain of salt. And if you're in hodl only mode, by all means ignore this message and consume permabull content all the way down to the bottom. That's what I did in 2021. It was stressful, but I ended up with more BTC. It worked for me as a guy with no kids and an income. But my permabull days are over. I have kids to feed and more capital to protect. So these days I prefer to think in probabilities and plan accordingly. The most important thing is to make a plan that works for YOU instead of letting influencers (bullish or bearish) control your buying and selling decisions 🫡

Planning to buy-borrow-die instead of selling your Bitcoin? The Bitcoin-backed loan simulator is now live on Stack Wisely. You can now run your borrowing plan through bullish and bearish scenarios to see: - Will you risk liquidation? - How much can you borrow per year? - When is the optimal year or price to start borrowing? - How many BTC will you need for margin calls? - How much will you pay in interest and fees? - How much wealthier will you be if you borrow instead of sell? Bitcoin is still volatile. Running your plans through realistic bearish and bullish scenarios (instead of relying on a linear CAGR) will help you make smarter decisions. Loans will work well for some people. But others will be better off selling a little in the short term to avoid the stress of potential margin calls. And many will be better off continuing to stack. Whatever you do, just make sure you have a plan. Ideally before the euphoria clouds your judgement 🫡

We're currently projecting a top near $247,335 in October. Like all guesses at a top... This one should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. Our core belief is that you should have a plan in place for a bullish AND bearish scenario. Including the possibility that we already topped. But we arrived at the ~$250K number by looking at all the times our long-term indicators were at a similar level in the previous cycle, taking the average gains remaining from there, and applying them to today. Another way to say it: "Historically when the market was at this point, we had 132% gains remaining on average." But these numbers look dramatically different if we include the 2017 cycle. With 2017 included, the forecast shifts to a top at $1,044,822 $1 million per coin by December 31st, 2025. That would indeed be a happy new year.

$108K per coin is an insult. But it's also a gift. Point one Bitcoin is still stackable. You know what to do 🫡

Bitcoin is nearing a decision point on the medium-term. - Weekly MACD is threatening a bearish crossover - Stack Wisely Cycle Index potential lower high - Weekly RSI potential lower high Bottom line: Momentum needs to pick up again otherwise we could be entering another bearish period. And if confirmed, this would be the first lower high on the Stack Wisely Cycle Index for this "cycle" - something worth paying attention to. On the flip side, we haven't been "overheated" since January despite recently setting a new all time high. You can either interpret that as meaning that we have plenty of room to run from here, or you can see it as a replay of November 2021 when we set a new high without reaching overheated levels. As an investor, you need to be prepared for all scenarios. If you're in stack-only mode, none of this matters. Stay solvent, create value, and DCA buy the world's only finite money. If you have significant wealth in BTC, create a plan that allows you to sleep comfortably in bearish and bullish scenarios. And then stick to the plan 🫡

Just get your next point one Bitcoin as quickly as possible. You only need 10 grand. Put your mind to it and I guarantee you can scrape that together. One day it's going to take $100K. And you'll kick yourself for not treating point one BTC with the respect it deserves.

One of our users requested a new Bitcoin selling strategy: They want to sell $40K worth of BTC every week the next time the market overheats. And they want to stop selling once they have built up a $500K cash cushion to get them through a potential bear market. This is better than trying to time a "pico-top" and works well if you know your cash needs for the coming years. But one downside is that in the bear case, the market will never hit the overheated level so you'll end up heading into a bear market with zero cash cushion. Still useful to evaluate, so it's now available to all users as a template. Adjust the selling threshold and cash cushion size as needed 👌

The Fed has held interest rates over 4% for 2.5 years. Israel is literally bombing Iran as I type this. And Bitcoin is $105,200. "Low interest rate phenomenon" and "not a geo-political hedge" theorists in shambles.

When could a Satoshi Billionaire retire? - Assume they need $15K per month (inflation adjusted) - They want to pass down significant wealth - They pay 15% capital gains tax Our simulations show that retiring January 1st, 2029 with a monthly DCA-out strategy is feasible in all scenarios. And they'll end up passing on at least $200 million in 2025 purchasing power terms. 10 coins is just over $1 million dollars today. A million in fiat isn't what it used to be. But a million dollars in Bitcoin can likely buy you permanent financial freedom in just 3.5 years. That's the power of The Ultimate Savings Technology.

You need to treat every 0.1 Bitcoin chunk as if it's a whole coin. Because before you know it, reaching "point one coiner" status will be as difficult as becoming a whole coiner is today. Celebrate 0.1 milestones. Round up to the nearest tenth of a coin as quickly as possible. Trust the path, stack wisely. And you'll look back on these days fondly. 🫡

How much will 0.1 BTC be worth in 60 years? And how much purchasing power will it have? Stack Wisely now lets you project your plans 60 years into the future instead of just 20. And you can now convert into today's dollars to quickly understand how your purchasing power will grow. Verdict? Young Point One Coiners that manage to HODL will be passing down a fortune.

Bitcoin is up 275% in the past two years. And 53% in the past year. Incredible performance, with pretty much zero froth. I don't think most people understand how crucial 2025 is for Bitcoin. Most would say that ending the year around $125K would be disappointing. But that would be another 32% annual gain. And if we can avoid a blow-off top this year, then the 4 year cycle narrative around BTC breaks once and for all. That would be a game-changer. At that point the pitch becomes: Bitcoin has entered a new era. It's an institutional grade asset that steadily rises 30-50% per year and protects you from debasement and count-party risk. That's how we get a steady rise to $1 million per coin. Just keep that in mind if you ever feel like Bitcoin is underperforming.

It's definitely most useful for people who need to make strategic decisions about their existing stack. However, it also lets you model out different buying plans. Should you DCA or lump sum buy now? How much net worth could you have if you buy monthly? What if you try to time your buys around market bottoms - would that work better than DCA buying? And in the future... I plan on adding something for people who feel like they can't stack enough. If you model out your future and you feel like you can't get to where you want to go by stacking, I want to show that there's always a way. It might just take a mindset shift.

👀 When I mow the lawn, I like to do (simplified*) mental arithmetic like this *StackWisely accommodates more of the bitcoin volatility than my mowing brain can handle

You have 40 BTC. You want to retire with $20K / month living expenses TODAY. Option A) Lock in 4 years of living expenses right now so you can ignore the charts until 2029. Then start DCA selling monthly to fund expenses once BTC has matured. Option B) Sell $20K / month starting now so you never need to hold a huge cash balance. Which one is better in a bear, base, or bull case? Answer: You win either way and your bigger problem is going to be figuring out what you actually want to do with your time 🙂 Fast forward 10 years and you can do the same with 4 Bitcoin instead of 40.

Did we just double top like in 2021? Personally I'd be shocked if that were the case... But either way, that isn't the right way to think about BTC. It goes up, it goes down, but in the long run it goes WAY up. Just remember: Every top is a local top on a long enough timeline. And the entire ride up to $111K has been riddled with anxiety for anyone who didn't have a long-term plan. So instead of worrying about short term questions that no one has an answer to (did we top)... Make a plan that works in a realistic bear and bull case and then get back to living while BTC does whatever it's going to do. That's why I built @stackwisely If you're in your first cycle, chances are you don't need to worry about this stuff... Any dip is a gift. But if you have significant wealth in BTC it's helpful to look into various versions of the future and see how your wealth would evolve. Would you survive a multi-year bear market? If you sold too soon, would you live to regret it, or would you still have plenty of BTC? You know I'm a Bitcoin perma-bull. But like many of you, I also have a family to provide for, and it's my responsibility to make sure they have a secure and comfortable life. And as our net worth started to grow to bigger numbers, I wanted to be certain that if BTC underperformed my optimistic expectations, I wasn't overexposed. The idea of selling BTC is extremely taboo amongst Bitcoiners. But every buyer needs a seller. Which means all of this record buying lately implies record selling as well. Keep that in mind next time you think you "aren't allowed" to sell your Bitcoin. What you need to do is make smart financial decisions for YOUR situation. That's why it's called personal finance. Don't let the herd make your decisions for you. Personally I knew that if I sold any BTC, I was unlikely to get it back because Bitcoin gets much harder to acquire over time. So I wanted to make sure I wouldn't be kicking myself for selling too soon when BTC got to where it's going. And I'll be honest with you: What I found by exploring various scenarios was that I likely WAS overexposed. By plugging in my BTC holdings and projecting my cost of living... the numbers told me that we would have more than enough to live well in all scenarios. But in the short term, I could lock in complete peace of mind by rebalancing my portfolio a bit. I wasn't trading BTC for fiat. I was trading it for peace of mind. And still keeping plenty of BTC for the long-run. Locking in security in both the bear and the bull case. And with kid #2 on the horizon, that security is priceless. Why am I sharing all of this when most Bitcoiners would be too scared to say that they sold some BTC? Because in 2021 I was fully bought into the "never sell" narrative too. And as a result, I ignored obvious signals of a top and watched 7 figures of wealth evaporate. That wasn't meme coin wealth, either. It was wealth I spent a decade of hard work acquiring via stressful entrepreneurship. And it went poof right in front of my eyes because I naively believed that everyone else was as bought into the "never selling" narrative as I was. If I had Stack Wisely at the time, I could have made a more clear-eyed and intelligent plan. But back to today: Do I see this as a likely top? No. But the whole point is that I no longer need to guess if it is or not. Because I have a plan that works for me. And all I need to do now is follow it. If you have significant wealth in BTC - I highly recommend making a plan that works for you. And whether your plan includes buying, selling, or taking a loan... Gift yourself the peace of mind that comes with knowing exactly what you need to do in all scenarios 🫡