Here’s one of the more uplifting stories I’ve worked on in a while. I went to Mae Sot to hang out with Burmese women who are trying soccer for the first time — in exile. Stunning photos by ⁦@laurendecicca⁩ nytimes.com/2024/09/23/world…

Princess Bha, who was seen as a potential successor to the Thai throne, died after being in a coma for more than three years. nyti.ms/3S3Yl0b

Thailand has one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in the world. In 2025, the TFR was 0.87, and the preliminary numbers for the first months of 2026 are even lower. The rate is so low that deaths have exceeded births since 2021 and now run 34% higher than births. Thailand’s fertility collapse has always fascinated me. With a flight to a Bank of Thailand conference in Bangkok ahead of me, I spent some time reviewing the data. Thailand’s TFR fell below replacement in 1991. That is early. It means completed fertility has been below replacement for at least a full generation. In 1991, Thailand was neither rich nor well-educated. Even today, its income per capita (in PPP, the right measure here) is about Mexico’s level, around 28% of the U.S. The standard theories for East Asian ultra-low fertility, such as a toxic educational arms race or extreme gender inequality, have little bite here. On the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index 2025, Thailand scored 0.728 and ranked 66th. South Korea scored 0.687 (101st of 146), and Japan 0.666 (118th of 148, last in the G7). I think Thailand is the clearest example of modernity without high income, and that combination is a recipe for demographic collapse. To illustrate this point: if Thailand’s TFR remained at its current level for 200 years, the population would decline from 65.8 million in 2025 to 1.51 million in 2225. While this is a hypothetical scenario used to make the argument, not a forecast, it gives a sense of the magnitude of the population change involved unless TFR increases at some point. This is not about closing a few maternity wards or fixing Social Security, but about winding down an entire country. Does anyone have a better theory? I don’t have enough information on Thai demographics, and I am happy to update my view. Two caveats. First, I use Thailand’s official data from the National Statistical Office. The UN WPP data (and the databases built on it, such as the World Bank’s) are, as always, way off. Second, the official statistics may undercount births somewhat. Even if they do, the picture changes little.

Breaking news: A major earthquake off the coast of Mindanao in the Philippines triggered tsunami warnings around the Pacific region. nyti.ms/4eeCiv9

The New York Times Company now has over three million paying digital subscribers outside the United States, with subscribers in almost every country around the world. Read more: nytco.com/press/the-new-york…

Calling Ms. Wang “one of the most respected journalists covering China today,” Mr. Kahn said that her expulsion “follows a campaign of harassment and threats directed at her over professional, accurate and evenhanded reporting.” nytimes.com/2026/05/29/us/po…

The New York Times Calls for Reinstatement of China Correspondent. Read more in a statement from Joseph Kahn, Executive Editor of The New York Times. nytco.com/press/the-new-york…

One of my favorite modern Thai films of this decade

some news: Ramtin Arablouei, co-host of the NPR podcast "Throughline," left the network after it opened an investigation in March into his conduct. NPR hasn't issued a public explanation for his absence. nytimes.com/2026/05/15/busin…

Important article on Nadiem Makarim’s case. Thanks to @suilee for pursuing this case, which is fundamentally important for Indonesia’s future A Tech Tycoon’s Prosecution Raises Fears of Authoritarian Overreach nytimes.com/2026/05/13/world… via @NYTimes

Breaking News: The Philippines Senate erupted into chaos after what appeared to be gunshots were fired from inside the chamber after a top ally of Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s former leader, said police were coming to arrest him. nyti.ms/3RlI8Tw

When I started looking into the power of the Catholic Church in the Philippines, one name kept on coming up: Michal Gatchalian. Back before the issue of clergy abuse became a global scandal, he had challenged the church in the Philippines. nytimes.com/2026/05/12/world…

Quoted on The New York Times. With the coup in the Senate despite the overwhelming House vote to impeach her, it is becoming clearer that the game plan of VP Sara Duterte and her allies never really changed: prevent the trial from happening at all. Not because they can convincingly defeat the charges in a full public proceeding, but because an actual impeachment trial would mean weeks, perhaps even months, of nationally televised testimony, documentary evidence, financial records, and witness accounts laid bare before the public. The strategy, then, is obstruction before exposure. Because once a trial begins, the political danger is not confined to conviction in the Senate. It is the sudden erosion of public support for VP Sara that comes from sustained exposure and scrutiny of evidence against her. “Even though the Senate is unlikely to convict Ms. Duterte, the airing of the accusations against Ms. Duterte for weeks could have tarnished her brand, said Cleve Arguelles. "There's a well established precedent in Philippine politics that those who experience this kind of exposure end up losing public support by the time of the election period," said Mr. Arguelles. "So that should worry her a lot."” nytimes.com/2026/05/11/world…

Excellent piece : No Country for American Reporters - The Wire China thewirechina.com/2026/05/10/…

Having been in “stealth mode” for a little while, this week I can finally say that @CarnegieChina is officially open for business. It was wonderful to see familiar faces and meet new friends. We couldn’t have asked for a warmer reception in Singapore. Great appreciation for our distinguished guests who traveled from Beijing, Delhi, Jakarta, and DC to celebrate with us. What a fantastic line-up of speakers that covered the waterfront from tech and geopolitics to Asian agency and whether we’re moving to a “multilateral world with strong bipolar features.” It was a privilege to be alongside @CarnegieEndow leadership Tino Cuéllar @EvanFeigenbaum and Daniel Baer for this special occasion. I remarked at the outset that grappling with China’s arrival as a great power is a team sport – having a community of scholars, industry practitioners, thought leaders, and policymakers and diplomats is essential. We intend to continue to build and strengthen it. As the first and only American think tank with a physical presence in Singapore, I’m excited about what lies ahead. This may be a new chapter for Carnegie China, but it is only the first chapter.

Last week to apply to be @hrw's senior China researcher!! We're looking for: ➡️ Strong commitments to human rights ➡️ Excellent research skills ➡️ Excellent English Chinese ➡️ Experience working in China (e.g. journalism, civil society) Apply today! job-boards.greenhouse.io/hum…

It was a privilege to join @damienics, @VGokhale59, @dinopattidjalal, Bilahari Kausikan, @mawangcun1, and an amazing cast of colleagues and friends from Singapore, Washington, New Delhi, Jakarta, Beijing, and beyond to formally launch @CarnegieChina in Singapore. The East Asia-based research center of @CarnegieEndow, focused on China’s regional and global role, the Center will cast a critical eye on China's strategic and economic trajectory from our new base in Singapore. This was a happy arrival event to welcome our center to the Lion City.

Great to be back in the Straits Room of the Fullerton Hotel, where we used to host the Fullerton Lectures, for the launch of @CarnegieChina’s new base in Singapore. Nice to see so many old friends. Congrats to @EvanFeigenbaum and @damienics on a great first set of discussions.

Singapore ... walking between meetings.

Must read— Inside Job - The Wire China: a fabulous piece on SuperMicro and allegations of smuggling Nvidia chips. thewirechina.com/2026/04/26/…