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Strategy bought another 1,587 $BTC and added $100M to the cash reserve. This has been able through ATM common stock selling. In the same week of them selling 1.7M $MSTR the price only dumped by only 1.5%. At current premarket price $MSTR is at $132 which is a 4.9% pump from last monday open. I shared criticism of @MicroStrategy moves last week but it appears that MSTR shareholders are willing to fund his activity.

To all the people that are promoting the @hyperbeat world cup fantasy game, none of you disclaimed that it is not free to win. To get eligible for cash price, you need to spend $500 or have $50K in volume on their product.

Strategy didn't sell $BTC to increase their cash reserve. However they did add cash to the reserve through MSTR sales. They sold 181M worth of $MSTR and used $101M of those to buy 1,550 $BTC. Wrong on the timing. Macro pressure thesis stands. Current cash reserve is at $1B and mNAV at 1.19. Regarding my position I am out of everything. I took advantage of the weekend speculation but was wrong on my thesis. Going forward, I'm back to monitoring ETF flows and chart levels.

Obviously out. They bought… x.com/treenewsfeed/status/20…

I read a lot of tweets about @Strategy and $MSTR / $STRC / $BTC. There is a lot of speculation. Instead of adding another one, here are facts about the situation. There are 3 possibilities. Multiple scenarios on the table, no clear answer until Monday’s 8-K. Options: 1. He sold $BTC to top up cash reserves. 2. He bought $BTC. 3. He sold $MSTR to top up cash reserves. Options 1 and 3 are bullish for $BTC. Option 2 (if not combined with 3) is bearish. Options 2 & 3 are bullish. Additional information: - There is no evidence of on-chain flows pointing to a large $BTC sale. - $MSTR weekly volume was comparatively high vs prior weeks, suggesting possible ATM equity issuance. - He needs to raise money, reserve runway is under 6 months.

This analysis is sharing half the story. I think these flows doesn't lead to Strategy selling $BTC, here's why: First information, which is true, Fidelity Custody holds some of the Bitcoin of Strategy. They indeed transferred a large chunk (around 46K $BTC) from the 28th of may to the 31st. What's missing from the analysis: For some reason, the transferred BTC doesn't appear to have been sold. I have checked some of the addresses, they all still hold $BTC, none have sold any coins. This looks more like a cold storage rebalancing or some other custody management than Saylor selling. At least, no sales appear to have happened last week...

We started the week $73K with the announcement of Saylor selling 32 bitcoin:native. During this week we have seen a huge selloff on $STRC and crypto as a whole, led by Bitcoin. I am now long bitcoin:native & $STRC. Why? My thesis: I think (no source here, speculation only) Saylor has been selling bitcoin:native the whole week. I think he didn't have any other choice. He has 100M/month divs on STRC alone, with $900M left in the USD Reserve. Cutting the dividend would crash the credit instrument. Pushing mNAV further down kills future ATM accretive issuance. Both options are off the table economically. His last resort is selling the good old bitcoin. Now, let's say I am right, he did sell bitcoin:native , why & what's next? To meaningfully refill the reserve for 1-2 years (covering $100M/month STRC other preferreds), he'd need $2-4B. That's my range. With the announcement of the huge selling, he will announce he buffed up the reserve and reassure STRC's holders. From that move and communication 2 outcomes are possible: 1. Panic --> Will he sell more bitcoin? What are we thinking of someone holding $50B starting selling? What happens for $MSTR? 2. Bullish --> Sell pressure is gone, STRC back to peg, he might be raising more money to resume pressing the green button. From these speculations, if they are right, longing bitcoin:native & $STRC is an asymmetric bet with low risk. If he doesn't announce a large sell Monday, I am out.

Saylor owes 11.5% on $10B. Saylor dividend is approx $100M per month to $STRC holders and he has $900M left on reserves. Over the last 5 months, reserves decreased from 2.25B to 900M, that's $270M on average per month. He is the one that currently dump $BTC because he has to, otherwise the $STRC ponzi music stops.

$apxUSD pool has only 8.2M $USDC left with 37.5M apxUSD. At some point, apxUSD will be interesting to consider.

Regarding apxUSD, I think in situations like these, it's less about the objective backing and more about timing/sentiment. It doesn't matter if the "stable" is technically overcollateralised; if you are sitting in a PT-apyUSD market on Morpho, leveraged up to the tits and paying 25% on your borrows, you aren't too inclined to wait and find out, just because the dashboard on the internet tells you it's all fine. There are many others like you with tens of millions in this cool new revolutionary, totally safe, stable asset, but there is now only $10M left in the Curve LP and even though you are 300% certain in Saylor's ability to pull through and cook all the haters, in a couple of days, all the yield you've been earning for the past two months will be wiped out, even if the depeg reverts. So you withdraw and sell.

Total USD Supply got from $499M to $486M They just redeem or burned 13M apxUSD link: etherscan.io/token/$apxUSD

I spent the morning analysing apxUSD and apyUSD on-chain, the "dividend-backed stablecoin" collateralized by Strategy’s STRC preferred stock. The situation is uncomfortable and the math isn’t promising. This is a long tweet sharing more detailed information and my opinion on the future of @apyx products. TL;DR: APYX protocol is solvent, some turbulence will occur in the next few days, if you trust the team and have the balls to stay hat on, hold. full disclosure I sold today as I don’t have the balls and netted a large loss on this yield position. First, let’s talk about their product. Apyx protocol is emitting two different token apxUSD and apyUSD (more info here: docs.apyx.fi/product-overvie…) with apxUSD being the stable and apyUSD the yield bearing token. At the minute, there are 498,964,709 apxUSD minted on Ethereum. The backing of those tokens are (according to their accountable dashboard): - 61% STRC (Strategy's preferred stock, Nasdaq-listed) - 39% Cash & Treasuries Now comes the problem, STRC is currently trading at $96,71 per share, down 3.3% from its $100 par value. With these numbers and assuming the accountable dashboard is taking market price, the backing is currently worth $499.34M against an apxUSD supply of $498.96M, that leads us to a $375K buffer, that’s 0,075%... The system goes underwater at STRC = $96.59 Current price: $96.71 Distance to technical insolvency: *$0.12*, reminder that the protocol is solvent, this is just a market volatility feature. apxUSD's peg mechanism has 4 layers: 1. STRC dividend rate adjustment (MicroStrategy's lever, not Apyx's) 2. Overcollateralization buffer ← currently 0.075% 3. Whitelisted arbitrage ← stops working if ratio < 100% 4. "May deploy" tail hedges ← size unknown, conditional At $96.71 STRC, layers 1-3 are impaired simultaneously. apxUSD isn't obviously broken.But the design bets on STRC staying near $100 and STRC has no hard peg guarantee. It's a DAT-backed stablecoin in a market that hasn't stress-tested DAT stablecoins yet. We might be watching the first live test. Now that I have described all of this, the question is what's next? IMO, there are 2 options : 1. STRC deepen: APYX goes even more down, it creates panic for a while and now you are relying on the team to do the right thing with limited tools/solutions. 2. STRC stabilize: No more panic, we stay near the peg and everything settled as Saylor buffs his reserve and regain the trust of investor in order to repeg STRC and push again the ponzi. I think the 1st one is highly probable because Saylor is selling BTC to finance dividends. These sales will then proceed to restart the STRC flywheel. The question for apxUSD holders is what is happening in the meantime with limited solutions for the team. Panic will reveal that apxUSD is a stablecoin backed by a STRC at $100, while nothing guarantees STRC at $100, long story short, we have a stablecoin almost backed 1:1 by a volatile token.

Since this tweet HYPE went from $44 to touch $59 today, few cents from ATH. ETFs have been a large contributor to this pump with $41M in inflows, with $25.5M alone on May 20th. Meanwhile on the unstaking side, 12 new whales (above 100K $HYPE) have joined the unstaking queue, totalling 4.6M $HYPE. At current $HYPE price, that’s $268M potential sell pressure hitting the market. Screen from @Hyperviewapp

Everyone is asking what the use of the $USDH quote asset was if Hyperliquid was thinking of such a deal. To keep it simple, there wouldn’t have been any deal with Coinbase without $USDH.

Major USDC yields in DeFi are below SOFR but capital isn’t moving. Major yield products: USDC lending pool on Aave mainnet (3.7%), Spark USDC (3.6%), Maple syrupUSDC (4.8%) and sUSDe (3.5%) are at or near SOFR which is known as the risk-free rate, the baseline return in TradFi, currently at 3.66%. There is no rational reason to take exposure to a product below this rate. While this is true in TradFi, $20B sits in smart contracts paying at or below SOFR. TVL hasn’t moved YTD despite the risk/return tradeoff being broken. Two reasons: First, composability, users stack layers on top of these base products, looping and wrapping to juice returns. They take on more risk to escape the low yield. Second, crypto natives don't see TradFi as an option, even when the math says they should.

When I hear people say DeFi looping is crazy and it doesn't exist in real world 🙄. My bro, its been in TradFi all along! When Blackstone bought Hilton for $26B and borrowed $20B: - Lenders earned a fixed yield and were senior to Blackstone. - Blackstone got the leveraged upside if it worked out but also take the downside if it doesn't. Potentially wiped out on the equity. That’s exactly looping. Lenders: senior, safer, more predictable returns. Borrowers/Loopers: bigger returns but contingent on execution, skill, and management (same as when you are managing these loops). Looping as a concept is not new, it just looks foreign because before DeFi it was only accessible to institutions.