It goes far beyond four years. It is evident to those who have studied the US’ actions over the decades. The myth that alignment post-Soviet dissolution, post-liberalization and post-nuclear deal can meaningfully compound in the strategic domain, was going to be shown up someday. Services trade, remittances, and loose talk about a “human bridge” do not align core national interests. The story of shared interests in materially containing China diminishes in potency by the day given the speed with which China has risen and the increasing need of the US to stabilize Sino-US ties. What we are left with are the gaping holes in the relationship.
Look at India on the map, the maritime routes it straddles, the population and economic potential it has, and the veto it can exercise should it develop. It cannot be destroyed in a war because it is too large and populous. It can, however, be consistently kneecapped through proxy wars, secessionism, economic and technological constraints, disinformation operations, corruption, human capital stripping, and foreign dependencies. This has been a theme in play for over two decades. A fully sovereign India that grows to China’s economic size today by mid century irreversibly shifts the balance of power from the North Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific. This is strategically unviable for a US that depends on military, trade, technology and currency hegemony to preserve unipolarity and domestic growth.
The strategic interests of India and the US do not converge. This has been clear for the last four years. Some people who believe in a simplistic application of structural realism, according to which both countries have a common rival in China,... 1/8