Sent this message to a bunch of college friends with varying exposure to AI:
I've had a big shift in my perspective on AI over the past two years that I've mostly neglected to communicate to people, partially because it's been happening slowly in the background. I used to think that it was pretty plausible we'd hit a wall this decade with respect to some fundamental capability, but this has slowly been getting less likely to me as AI progress has continued, and now this seems very unlikely to me (<5%).
Previous technologies have never fully substituted for human labor—they've always been complementary. The fundamental reason for this is that previous technologies haven't been intelligent agents—they're merely tools that require intelligent agents to use them. I thought for many years that this could still turn out to be the case with the current paradigm of AI, but there's just been too much progress, and it's happening too rapidly, for this to seem plausible anymore.
What does this change in perspective mean concretely? I'm now quite confident that within the next 2-30 years, the economy and civilization will look totally, radically different from how it's operated for the past 2500 years. I still have a lot of uncertainty about what exactly this will look like—whether it'll be utopic, dystopic, maybe somewhere in between, or maybe we'll all be dead. But I feel very confident now that it's going to be totally insane and chaotic (like, many orders of magnitude more chaotic than anything the world has experienced in our lifetimes, like way way more significant than Covid, to pick a recent example).
I don't have a really concrete goal with sending this except that you're my best friends and it feels important for me to say my true beliefs to y'all. I guess I don't want you to be caught off guard. There are maybe two concrete takeaways/pieces of advice I feel comfortable giving: try to develop strong wellsprings of meaning and purpose from things outside of work (I think most of us are fine on this point), and start thinking about political actions you could take that feel true to you, that could plausibly help us muddle through the transition.