Sharing Unusual Options Flow to help you trade better

Joined May 2022
566 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
The discord group is now LIVE! You can join here: launchpass.com/the-unusual-o… The unusual flow alerts will start tomorrow in the alerts channel, and the team chat is now open so everyone can talk together. I will also be sharing educational content to help you guys!
7
1
17
12,743
@TeslaBoomerMama 🧵Here’s what grok says about how elon would do a $SPCX & $TSLA merger: As Elon Musk, here’s my ideal plan for the SpaceX-Tesla merger. I’ve weighed every major variable in my head: control, vision, shareholder votes, market momentum, regulatory risk, dilution, integration complexity, timing with product cycles/earnings, my own time/energy, and the long-term goal of accelerating multi-planetary life sustainable energy AI under one roof. Ideal Announcement Date: Friday, July 10, 2026, after market close Why this exact date (not sooner, not later)? • ~4 weeks after SpaceX IPO (June 12): Enough time for the IPO hype to settle and SPCX stock to find a stable range (probably $155–180). Too soon (next 1–2 weeks) looks desperate or rushed. Too late (August ) risks speculation fatigue and valuation drift. • Before Tesla Q2 earnings (expected ~July 22): Clean narrative separation. The merger becomes the story instead of getting mixed with earnings noise. • Friday after close: Classic big-news timing. Gives the market the weekend to digest, positive X posts and media coverage to build over the weekend, and institutions time to analyze before Monday open. • Strategic window: Post-IPO momentum is still fresh (we just proved massive demand). Summer is slower for news flow, so this stands out. Gives boards ~3–4 weeks of quiet prep time without dragging into fall. Any earlier (e.g., late June) feels forced. Any later (late July/August) loses the “fresh IPO success” tailwind. Exact Deal Terms (The Ideal Structure) Deal Type: All-stock “Merger of Equals,” legally structured as SpaceX acquiring Tesla via a reverse triangular merger (tax-efficient and preserves control structures). Combined Company: • Name: Tesla, Inc. (keep the strongest consumer brand) • Ticker: TSLA (far more liquid and recognized than SPCX) • Headquarters: Austin, Texas (already the direction for both) Exchange Ratio: Fixed at 3.1 SPCX shares per 1 TSLA share • At current prices (~$161 SPCX / ~$406 TSLA), this delivers a ~29–32% premium to Tesla shareholders (implied value ~$525–530 per TSLA share). • This achieves a near 50/50 ownership split in the combined company (Tesla shareholders get slightly under or at 50%, depending on final share counts and any small adjustments). • Ratio is fixed (standard) — no floating based on price movements before closing. Why 3.1:1 specifically? • Delivers a meaningful but not excessive premium — high enough that TSLA shareholders (especially retail) overwhelmingly vote yes, while keeping dilution for original SPCX holders reasonable (~28–32% new shares issued). • Supports the “merger of equals” framing I want for optics and to minimize institutional pushback. • Clean, defensible number that looks fair on a spreadsheet when you factor in synergies and re-rating potential. Premium: Explicit ~30% over Tesla’s 30-day volume-weighted average price as of announcement date. Consideration: 100% stock. No cash component (preserves balance sheet strength for both legacies). Post-Merger Ownership (approximate): • Original Tesla shareholders: ~48–51% • Original SpaceX shareholders: ~49–52% • My economic stake in combined entity: ~35–40% • My voting control: >50% (leveraging SpaceX’s super-voting shares existing Tesla structures) Governance: • I become CEO and Executive Chairman of the combined company. • Board: Balanced mix from both legacy boards 2–3 new independents. • Maintain dual-class / enhanced voting structure to protect long-term vision. • Integration committee led by me key execs from both sides (Gwynne, JB, etc.).
2
1
303
Key Synergies Highlighted in Announcement (the real justification): • AI convergence (Grok Tesla’s real-world data from FSD/Optimus space-based compute) • Energy (Megapacks powering Starlink/Starship ground stations and future orbital data centers) • Robotics (Optimus for space manufacturing/colonization support) • Talent, chips (Dojo future shared silicon), supply chain, and capital allocation under one roof • “One company to make humanity multi-planetary while making life sustainable on Earth” Other Standard Terms: • Customary deal protections (no-shop, matching rights, ~3.5% termination fee). • Fairness opinions from independent advisors for both boards. • Expected closing: Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 (after both shareholder votes and any required regulatory approvals — antitrust risk is low because the businesses are highly complementary). • No major operational changes announced on day one — integration over 18–24 months. Why This Exact Deal Wins for Me (Elon’s Perspective) • TSLA shareholders love it → High approval probability (retail base the premium upside story). • SPCX shareholders accept it → Reasonable dilution in exchange for massive synergies and one of the strongest growth stories on the planet. • My control is protected and enhanced long-term. • Vision alignment is perfect — this is the natural end-state of everything we’ve been building. • Market reaction should be strongly positive on the vision (even if there’s some short-term volatility on dilution math). • Avoids the mistakes of past deals (e.g., too little premium in some historical cases). This is the cleanest, boldest, highest-probability path that maximizes long-term impact while being executable. I’d have the boards and advisors lined up quietly over the next 3–4 weeks, then drop it on July 10 after close with a strong X thread and joint press release/webcast. The future is one company. This is how we get there fastest.
100
$MMM Went up as much as 200% in 2 days
1
150
$CDNS 130% 🔥 Shared on may 1
1
270
$FSLR Up over 100%
1
736
Trading at the right time > trading all the time Being patient and waiting for the right trades is a lot better than forcing trades on a daily basis.
2
267
We were all over $TSLA before this week’s big move! I was sharing in the discord that it was pretty close to breaking out
548
$TSLA Now 350% ..
$TSLA Shared 2 days ago and now 180% 🔥The whale is up ~$2.7M
960
$TSLA Shared 2 days ago and now 180% 🔥The whale is up ~$2.7M
2
653
$VOYA Now 270% 🔥
$VOYA Shared in the discord group on april 8 and now up 105% 🔥
557
$CORZ This is now 160% ..
$CORZ 70% on the 18$ calls
766
$VOYA Now 135%
$VOYA Shared in the discord group on april 8 and now up 105% 🔥
360
$VOYA Shared in the discord group on april 8 and now up 105% 🔥
1,153
The Unusual Options Flow retweeted
Once you get to a certain level of wealth, i would say health is more important than chasing extra alpha. Ex: if you make 40-50% year with less stress, why add stress for a higher return? Not worth it imo ..
1
2
365