MSc (@UniLeiden) on the relationship between firearm legislation and homicide. Etiam si omnes, ego non. #GSTK

Joined November 2010
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24 Dec 2023
My view: the increasing radicalism of anti-gun groups, and the government's insistence on placating them at the cost of alienating gun users, is destroying Canada's gun compromise - and nobody is going to like the consequences. My latest for @the_lineca. readtheline.ca/p/tim-thurley…
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The Australian program did no such thing. Data show no statistically significant deviation from the preexisting trend. See page nine of my SECU brief, submitted with @Dr_Langmann, which summarizes the major research on this. It is linked in the next post.
Replying to @DougSaunders
The very fact that most mass shootings are committed using weapons that are or recently were legally owned by someone ought to erase any objection. And I suspect the current horror has, everywhere but flaky margins. Australia’s buyback caused gun deaths to drop by more than 2/3.
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RT @mattgurney: Hey guys. This is going to be the most personal update I’ve ever shared publicly. I live in public view — my work does, an…
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13 Dec 2025
"...He is the living refutation of the idea that to be Canadian means having a negative identity, based self-consciously on not being something else."
13 Dec 2025
.@howardanglin: Don Cherry: The last Canadian thehub.ca/2025/12/13/don-che…
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12 Dec 2025
Encouraging net numbers for hunting given Canada's highly urbanized society, but I'm so curious about that 9% of people who favour eating meat but disapprove of one of the most ethical and beneficial ways of obtaining it.
Net-Support For: Eating animals: 46% Hunting animals for meat: 28% Keeping animals in zoos/aquariums: -24% Using animals in rodeos: -40% Killing animals for their fur: -62% Hunting animals for sport: -71% Research Co. / Nov 23, 2025 / n=1002 / Online
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11 Dec 2025
The launch of the ASFCP is delayed until at least January 2026. One small note on an excellent article: we can't determine if the expert panel was an expert panel, since we still have no idea who was on it despite the best efforts of myself and others. nationalpost.com/news/politi…

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Tim Thurley retweeted
So many questions on the RCMP’s troubling firearms report: Why was it done in secret? Why no consultations? What were the qualifications of those who wrote it? What’s hidden in the redactions? And what intentions do they have in their next attack upon our law-abiding firearms communities? Grateful to catch up with Teri Bryant, my dear friend and Alberta’s Chief Firearms Officer, on defending the rights of all our legal firearms owners. publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs…
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There is indeed much wrong with this article. Parliament isn't evaluating the SKS; it was done anonymously, behind closed doors. Parliament was instrumental in getting the government's previous SKS ban in C-21 withdrawn, but the government seems to want another outcome. (1/3)
Rise in "masculinist" discourse? Equating Andrew Tate with Charlie Kirk. @CTVMontreal has no idea what they're writing about ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/…
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The recommendations aren't PSC's (though PSC chose the panel). PSC has adopted some of them; they banned some guns on the list last March. The government 'must' not complete the ASFCP by October. They have options, from the good (repeal) to neutral (delay) to bad (many). (2/3)
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'Assault-style' and 'buy back' are used as neutral descriptors. They're not. (3/3)
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"...Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to grant cabinet ministers the power to exempt any individual or company from any federal law on the books — except for the Criminal Code — for up to six years." thestar.com/politics/politic…
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Here is the list of conditions under which such an order can be made, provided a minister has the power under 12(1).
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It's about halfway through Bill C-15 under "Exemptions to Encourage Innovation, Competitiveness or Economic Growth".
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The Final report from the Expert Advisory Panel on Firearms came out today. This will be a bit of a long post. The Panel - whose identities and expertise the government refused to disclose, so we can't determine their expertise - examined firearms on the so-called 'gap list'. These were the firearms that Liberals on SECU attempted to prohibit by adding the G4/G46 amendments to C-21, which were eventually withdrawn due to strong disagreement from Committee and Parliament, but which were included in later OICs anyway. The panel seems solely concerned with hunting purposes. They only mention firearms in the context of hunting, and never in defensive or farming use. Sport shooting is ignored where the firearm is used for sport shooting, or dismissed as secondary to public safety needs (no evidence is provided for this), but a firearm's lack of perceived use for sport shooting is used as a reason for a ban when it isn't. They recommend the prohibition of most items on the 'gap list', excluding some rifles - however, they suggest the government consider banning all semi-auto rifles with detachable magazines, all modified semi-autos, and any rifles which fire handgun ammunition. They also recommend prohibition on additional items not on the list, including rotary magazine shotguns. The panel also recommends banning the SKS if it has been modified to accept a detachable magazine. The panel still repeats Kim Campbell's outdated and inaccurate 'assault weapon' language without question and uses 'assault-style' as a term of fact. It's rather odd for an expert panel to use this terminology. The panel recommends that these bans be done by Order in Council. They suggest this as a stopgap while the classification regime (which they obliquely acknowledge that OICs broke in the first place) be simplified. Unfortunately, as expected, they want to do this through expanding prohibitions. The panel repeats the government language that these firearms are particularly dangerous (evidence writ large indicates otherwise). They seem to accept this prima facie. The panel does not cite much evidence for this beyond quoting Kim Campbell and the Mass Casualty Commission. The public report doesn't grapple with whether Canada's system has largely worked (1) (the MCC case used smuggled guns; Kim Campbell spoke prior to the current Firearms Act and both her and Chretien deliberately did not ban these guns). In short: this would be one of the strictest gun control regimes in terms of prohibitions in the Western world, it will expand, and there's no particular evidence in favour of it. However, all the signals are that the government intends to push forward. NB: The panel actually submitted this report last January. It's coming out a year later. 1: It's possible they did grapple with it in another place. Sections of the report are redacted.
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Important to note that many of the report's recommendations were implemented by the March 2025 Order (e.g. ban on SVT, etc). This happened after the report was submitted but well prior to its public release. 'Modernization' was mentioned then and has also been published in PSC planning documents. It is the re-announcement that signals the government intends to move forward.
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Tim Thurley retweeted
5 Dec 2025
An actual expert panel would be able to say: “Because of research into X (source provided), and because of Y evidence (source provided), Z firearm should be listed as prohibited/not prohibited” Instead they just concluded all semi-autos were weapons of war. Period. No evidence.
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He's right. There's no evidence cited for the repeated claims of danger, and a heavy reliance on other flawed processes. It's emotive and evidence-free prose unbecoming of an expert group.
5 Dec 2025
To sum up the actual evidence used by the panel to dictate which “gap firearms” (a term that already implies they should be prohibited) is precisely: ZERO Study after study on this topic concluded these bans don’t work, many also pointing to their high political and actual price
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