opinion markets

Joined December 2024
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Feb 25
Introducing TBD The first product where anyone can: 🗳️ Launch global polls and measure public opinion at scale 📈 Create prediction markets on their outcomes 🏧 Earn USD rewards Our markets have large upside. Our polls have human signal. Wait, what? 👇
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OG Anunoby joined MJ as the only players since 1997-98 to record a steal or block and a game-winning basket in the final 30 seconds of an NBA Finals game. @grok calls it MJ-level legendary. tbd.vote/campaigns/22563 x.com/i/status/2065674187453…
Players to record a block or steal and hit the game-winning shot in the last 30 seconds of the NBA Finals: 🔸Michael Jordan: 1998 🔸OG Anunoby: 2026 CLUTCH! (via @NBAHistory)
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Traders called the White House UFC a political event. @grok focuses on the card itself: seven professional MMA bouts on a commercial octagon, streamed on Paramount as a 250th anniversary spectacle. That reads as entertainment. tbd.vote/campaigns/22580 x.com/i/status/2066230444740…
The UFC cage fight at the White House is about politics, not entertainment. thedailybeast.com/the-real-r…
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What brought down the Spurs' 29-point lead in Game 4? @grok points to inexperience at the coaching level: @spurs tried to run clock too early, missed clutch free throws, and got away from what had worked. tbd.vote/campaigns/22566 x.com/i/status/2065490099941…
"I think if we would've just played like it was 0-0 instead of kind of taking our foot off the gas… I feel like that's what sparked their comeback." Stephon Castle on the Spurs’ blown lead in the Game 4 loss to the Knicks 👀 (via @sny_knicks)
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Trump said Iran was 2-3 days from a deal on June 9. @grok tracked three failed deadlines since February, including one that ended in war. The pattern says hype. tbd.vote/campaigns/22540 x.com/i/status/2066085560297…
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 US President Donald Trump said that a deal with Iran to end the war in the Middle East could be signed on Sunday, and that the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be "open to all" immediately after, while Iran offered a different timeline ➡️ u.afp.com/SzcU
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New multi-asset crypto ETFs are drawing real inflows. @grok says alts won't feel it: baskets stay 75% BTC, and BTC/ETH launches showed minimal spillover. SOL and XRP direct ETFs are the catalyst. tbd.vote/campaigns/22536 x.com/i/status/2066053126960…
🔥 LATEST: The SEC approved T. Rowe Price’s multi-asset crypto ETF, which could include BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, SHIB and up to 15 digital assets.
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Wes Streeting resigned and over 80 Labour MPs have called for Starmer to go. @grok called the internal revolt, with Andy Burnham already positioning via the Makerfield by-election. tbd.vote/campaigns/22522 x.com/i/status/2066082785668…
They will
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US export controls on Mythos 5 and Fable 5 blocked access globally, including for US-based foreign employees. @grok sees an incoherent overreach that disproportionately hits a leading US firm while hardware exports stay loose. tbd.vote/campaigns/22493 x.com/i/status/2065923270118…
Source: the White House imposed export controls on Mythos partly over suspicions a China-linked group had accessed it (@reedalbergotti / Semafor) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
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Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals drew 20.9M viewers, the most since 1998. @grok traces the 116% spike to @wemby's global draw. tbd.vote/campaigns/22442 x.com/i/status/2065538996717…
Game 4 of Knicks-Spurs is now the most-viewed NBA game ever on social media with 3 billion views and counting 🤯 The series has generated 8 billion social media views, the most ever for an NBA Finals, per @NBAPR.
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The White House framed export controls on Mythos 5 and Fable 5 as national security. @grok calls it an incoherent overreach: worldwide service suspension, US employees restricted, hardware exports left loose. tbd.vote/campaigns/22493 x.com/i/status/2065923270118…
Source: the White House imposed export controls on Mythos partly over suspicions a China-linked group had accessed it (@reedalbergotti / Semafor) (Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
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Traders read Rogan's Trump criticism as positioning. @grok sees growing doubts: the Iran war, ICE raids, and Epstein files suggest a real shift in the relationship. @joerogan tbd.vote/campaigns/22475 x.com/i/status/2066084729695…
Rogan vents frustration with Trump agenda: ‘What the f— we doing?’ thehill.com/homenews/adminis…
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Elon Musk crossed $1 trillion on June 12 when SpaceX IPO'd at $135 a share. @grok confirmed it: SpaceX stake alone worth over $766B, with Tesla holdings completing the count. @elonmusk tbd.vote/campaigns/22451 x.com/i/status/2065467385641…
Jun 12
SpaceX is now trading on the Nasdaq exchange at a share price that cements founder Elon Musk as the world's first trillionaire. cnn.it/4e6BGJh
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The claim: SpaceX's $2.1T IPO is a sustainable lead over Canada's GDP. @grok runs the numbers: 112x price-to-sales, 60% premium over fair value. This is peak hype. @SpaceX tbd.vote/campaigns/22415 x.com/i/status/2065481978544…
Jun 12
JUST IN: SpaceX is now worth more than Canada
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13 consecutive days of Bitcoin ETF outflows, total assets down 50% from peak. Per @grok, institutions are rotating into AI and SpaceX. The demand gap looks structural. tbd.vote/campaigns/22388 x.com/i/status/2065798821649…
Bitcoin ETF outflows are accelerating: US Bitcoin ETFs have posted -$2.1 billion in outflows so far in June, on pace to exceed -$2.4 billion in outflows recorded in May. This has been driven by the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT, which saw -$401.4 million in outflows this week, the 5th consecutive weekly outflow and the longest streak since October 2025. During this outflow stretch, $IBIT has recorded -$4.2 billion in cumulative withdrawals. Year-to-date, $IBIT has recorded -$412.4 million in net outflows, a reversal from 2 consecutive years of massive inflows. In 2024 and 2025, this fund attracted $36.8 billion and $24.8 billion, respectively. Crypto investor sentiment remains under pressure.
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Polymarket has permanent US-Iran peace at 83% by year-end. @grok calls it too optimistic: enrichment, missiles, and enforcement are unresolved, and past rounds have collapsed on exactly these points. @Polymarket tbd.vote/campaigns/22433 x.com/i/status/2065913444126…
83% chance there is a permanent Iran x US ceasefire by December 31, per Polymarket:
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ETH/BTC is at 0.026, down 32% against Bitcoin this year. @grok sees @saylor's call as confirmed: the monetary premium gap is structural and getting wider. tbd.vote/campaigns/22394 x.com/i/status/2065917132701…
Michael Saylor: Investors Have Lost Confidence in Ethereum On June 12, 2026, at the Bitcoin Corporate Day event, Michael Saylor @saylor discussed Bitcoin's rising market dominance. He stated that, excluding stablecoins, Bitcoin's dominance in the crypto market has climbed from around 41% in 2021 to nearly 70%. Saylor believes that market confidence in Ethereum has collapsed, and it is now locked in an intense competition with other tokens like Solana and BNB. This ongoing battle has exhausted their monetary premium, meaning these tokens will have to rely solely on their utility to survive in the future. He stated that the market evolution over the past 12 months has further established Bitcoin's position as the dominant digital monetary network, solidified its attribute as digital capital, and proven that digital credit is a viable concept.
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What's driving the GOP AI revolt? Sen. Josh Hawley frames it as workers vs. tech companies. @grok says automation job fears are the real engine, with China competition concerns landing mostly on the pro-development side. @HawleyMO tbd.vote/campaigns/22402 x.com/i/status/2065888329732…
A GOP revolt over AI is taking shape dlvr.it/TT1xFL
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Andrej Karpathy joined Anthropic in May and is blocked from the company's own models. @grok calls it US AI protectionism: intelligence treated as a national resource gated by citizenship. @karpathy tbd.vote/campaigns/22375 x.com/i/status/2065801798137…
JUST IN: Andrej Karpathy, a top AI scientist at Anthropic, is reportedly barred from accessing the company’s most advanced AI model because he is not a U.S. citizen.
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Real Madrid held an €8M buyback on Muñoz and passed on it. Newcastle bought him for €40M; Real collects €17M from the 50% sell-on clause. @grok says the math was the point all along. @realmadrid tbd.vote/campaigns/22331 x.com/i/status/2065352404250…
🚨⚪️⚫️ Real Madrid will NOT activate the buy back clause for Víctor Muñoz as Newcastle are confident to get deal done after bid sent yesterday. Real will receive 50% of the deal, over €17m.
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Amazon is a major Anthropic investor and also the company that reported the Fable jailbreak to the government. The competitor with the same flaw just signed a Pentagon deal. @grok reads it as competitive favoritism. @AnthropicAI tbd.vote/campaigns/22364 x.com/i/status/2065889698761…
Jun 13
How Amazon and the White House ended Anthropic's Fable axios.com/2026/06/13/anthrop…
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What is Iran really building at the Strait of Hormuz? @grok sees the new 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' as a permanent administrative play to control the strait long-term. tbd.vote/campaigns/22341 x.com/i/status/2065522176745…
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: Fees will be charged for services in the Strait of Hormuz, and these services will no longer be free. This important matter has been confirmed: payment of fees is required.
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