Joined April 2011
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Mar 15
Oil shocks are exogenous, private credit is endogenous. The first can be resolved or ended “rapidly” in the same way it began but the second cannot.
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Valentin Teruggi retweeted
US30Y - as long as we do not have any hick ups in the Middle East, we should see the long end rallying to pre-war levels.
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Now, Iranian companies have to make up for these 3 months. They will pump like crazy.
WTI at $50 incoming. If the US economy enters a downturn, WTI will be at $30.
Iran says Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully Friday.
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El S&P 500 muestra una estructura muy similar a la del período 1997-2000.
La burbuja puede no haber terminado todavía, pero el fractal sugiere que podríamos estar acercándonos al techo final.
Nuevo artículo en Substack open.substack.com/pub/econom…
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RT @HenrikZeberg: If you think Inflation is a Problem here - you don't get Macro.
Disinflation is not far away. And it will be severe as C…
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As an economist, you spend your career respecting the ECB as the grown-ups in the room — the ones with the fancy models.
The next day they hike rates into a classic supply shock while the European economy is visibly rolling over.
Brilliant. Just brilliant.
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This is very true
Jun 14
These OPEC countries also will pump at 100% because they need to regenerate cash reserves they lost the past 3 months - whilst also stimulating their customers economies. That is what I've modelled along with a non-peace deal demand destruction scenario. Both same outcome (cuts)
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Jun 12
RT @HenrikZeberg: Try READ this - and understand the reasoning.
Inflation is NOT an issue at this point in the Business Cycle.
The CBs re…
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Jun 12
Esto ya lo vimos en 2008.
Subir las tasas por un shock de oferta no tiene sentido. La inflación viene por demanda.
Incluso en 2011, con la pequeña subida del petróleo post-2008, el BCE subió las tasas para luego recortarlas a 0 en solo meses.
Esta vez no va a ser diferente. El mundo está en la etapa de desaceleración económica. No me sorprendería ver el petróleo en 45-50 dólares a fin de año si el conflicto se resuelve.
Jun 11
Subir tasas a las puertas de una recesión es una salvajada.
El BCE repite los errores de 2001 y 2008.
La inflación será coyuntural y veremos el petróleo por debajo de 60 o 70 a finales de año..
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Valentin Teruggi retweeted
Jun 11
Subir tasas a las puertas de una recesión es una salvajada.
El BCE repite los errores de 2001 y 2008.
La inflación será coyuntural y veremos el petróleo por debajo de 60 o 70 a finales de año..
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Jun 12
RT @HenrikZeberg: 1st Grader Analysis @JohnHCochrane. Terrible!
Inflation needs to be DEMAND-driven.
In 1970s SAVINGS RATE was 9-20%.
Tod…
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Jun 12
Mientras la inflación en USA fue de 4.2%, ya hay 3 mercados que descuentan el final de la guerra. open.spotify.com/episode/52m…
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Jun 12
A diferencia de los ferrocarriles en 1840, los años veinte o incluso la burbuja de tecnología, todas estas anteriores generaron empleo, mientras que la burbuja de la IA no. Aunque el ciclo se desarrolla de manera similar, hay algunas diferencias. open.spotify.com/episode/6kG…
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Jun 11
Agree.
The three rounds of inflation during the seventies are fully related to the demographics.
Baby boomers at the peak of their spending pushed up home prices, which in turn led to higher inflation.
The oil shocks in the seventies were just the final peak (like the 2022 war) of an inflationary wave caused initially by housing (similar to the 2021 expansion).
If you want to know where inflation is headed, check the housing market, as it is 35% of the index. Just math.
Jun 11
Fun fact of the day
This is not the 1970s!!
Wall Street economists still don’t get it.
Raising rates does nothing to fix the relative price shifts caused by a supply shock. Their fear that second- and third-order effects will trigger a 1970s-style inflation spiral is based on flawed economics.
Kevin Warsh understands this. Most of them don’t.
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Jun 11
Agree. Limited amount of BTC. An unlimited amount of cryptocurrencies.
In an extreme, hypothetical scenario (not real), where BTC is owned by only 10 people at a price of 10 million each and used for global payments, people would then use another crypto.
They would pump the new crypto until they switch to another. And when we switch to another, we find out the real value of the previous one.
Jun 11
It is even less valid because you actually can NOT create unlimited amounts of land (you can buy lots of land elsewhere though, which is an analogy); you can create unlimited amounts of crypto currencies though.
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Jun 11
RT @HenrikZeberg: This is like 2000 as the Appetizer - with 2008 as the Main Course.
Read here why! 👇
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Jun 11
We are going to go beyond 60%. The last stages of the bull cycle usually get super interesting and euphoric.
However, this is strong evidence of where we stand in the cycle.
Jun 11
MARKET OFFICIALLY IN STUPID MODE.
Margin debt increased 53% yoy.
When this number rolls over, it usually leads market crashes by 3 months.
Peak Euphoria incoming.
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Valentin Teruggi retweeted
Jun 9
The Dollar is getting a genuine lift from oil. Historically, the US was a net importer (blue bars), but that's shifted drastically in recent months and the US is now a big net exporter. That's completely changing how we need to think about "King Dollar..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
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Jun 11
¡Artículo Gratis!
El dólar puede subir aunque sus fundamentos parezcan débiles. No por confianza, sino por necesidad: deuda global en dólares, liquidez escasa y mercados buscando refugio.
En el nuevo artículo explico por qué este podría ser “el último baile del dólar”.
open.substack.com/pub/econom…
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Average weeks of unemployment are increasing. This is the highest number prior to entering a recession.
Unlike the railway mania in 1840, the Roaring Twenties, or the dot-com bubble, the IA bubble is not generating employment before the bust.
During the development of any bubble, employment usually increases due to bubble-related activities. Although the cycle is playing out the same way as before, this bubble does not even generate jobs.
Jun 9
2 MILLION AMERICANS NOW UNEMPLOYED FOR OVER SIX MONTHS PER BLS
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The Fed isn't changing inflation.
CPI, Core CPI, and PCE aren't disappearing. The real debate is whether policymakers should pay more attention to measures like Trimmed Mean Inflation to filter out temporary shocks from oil, tariffs, and geopolitics.
In my latest article, I explain what is actually changing, what isn't, and why understanding the cycle matters far more than arguing over the metric itself.
Full article below 👇open.substack.com/pub/valent…
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