Google gave android to OEMs because they extend their business, every device is another data point for their ad engine
TPU buyers would be direct competitors to Google’s AI products. Selling TPUs to OpenAI would be like giving android to a company trying to replace search
Android worked because Google kept the profitable layer proprietary (GMS, Play Services) while commoditizing the OS. With TPUs, the hardware is the moat
Google will never sell TPUs. The moment Google sells TPUs at scale, they transform their architectural advantage into a commodity.
Google's internal teams have first-order claims on TPU capacity because those workloads directly generate revenue and strategic moats. Any TPU sold externally is a TPU not used to defend Google's primary profit engines.
Right now, TPUs are Google's proprietary edge, vertical integration that lets them operate AI infrastructure at costs competitors can't match. DeepMind can burn through compute budgets that would bankrupt OpenAI because Google doesn't pay retail GPU prices, they pay internal TPU marginal cost.
If Google starts selling TPUs externally:
- They have to price competitively vs Nvidia GPUs, which means revealing their cost structure. Suddenly, everyone knows Google's true AI compute costs aren't magic.
- Selling bare metal TPUs means publishing detailed specs, performance benchmarks, and programming interfaces. This is handing competitors a blueprint for "how Google actually does AI at scale." Right now, that's proprietary. The moment it's a product, it becomes studied, reverse-engineered, and eventually replicated.
- Google Cloud already sells TPU access via GCP at premium prices. If they start selling bare TPUs, they're competing with their own higher-margin cloud offering. No sophisticated buyer would pay GCP markup when they could buy TPUs directly and run them cheaper.
GCP TPU pricing is not aggressive compared to GPU alternatives, but it is premium. This isn't incompetence, it's intentionally priced to discourage massive external adoption. Google makes TPUs available enough to avoid antitrust "hoarding infrastructure" accusations and to capture some high-margin cloud revenue, but they don't actually want external customers consuming capacity at scale.
Compare this to AWS, which sells every chip they can manufacture (Graviton, Trainium, Inferentia) because AWS is a commodity infrastructure business. Google's core business is ads and consumer products that depend on AI infrastructure. Selling the infrastructure is like McDonald's selling their supply chain to Burger King, even if it generates revenue, you're strengthening competitors and weakening your primary business.
You can't simultaneously be a commodity chip vendor AND maintain proprietary infrastructure advantage. The moment you sell, you commoditize. The moment you commoditize, your advantage evaporates.
Given that selling TPUs appears strategically unsound, why is there speculation that Google pursue it anyway? I think because cloud divisions at every hyperscaler have perpetual "we need differentiation" anxiety, and custom chips look like differentiation. But differentiation only matters if it protects margins or captures share without destroying your core business. Google selling TPUs would be differentiation that destroys more value than it creates.