(1/) DUCs truly are the story here. Every analyst’s model is over-projecting future (12-24mo) production.
Tier 1 is very parent-well drilled and infill degradation is bigger than most project.
We’re talking smaller IPs, harder declines and exploding GORs….
I’m still amazed that oil production in the United States is above 11mmbbls/d. We must have some damn efficient rigs and crews to keep production increasing (albeit slightly) at these rig levels.