Kostyantynivka direction, description of the situation focusing on the city itself and answers to FAQs.
Russian forces are infiltrating along the shown routes, reaching as far as the heads of the furthest arrows (approximately).
The infiltrations recorded recently are deeper than ever and quite worrying, but, after clarifying, are fortunately still one-time actions and don't constitute immediate criticalities (this doesn't mean that they should be ignored, quite the opposite).
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- On the western side, they advance along the creek up to Illinivka, then divide in two vectors: one with the aim of reaching northern Kostyantynivka through the forests on the shores of the artificial lakes, exactly as predicted in
t.me/PlayfraOSINT/4666, and one that goes through the Chervone Mistechko district up until the Tsentralniy district, where some Russians were detected recently.
- On the southern side, infiltrations come through Berestok up to eastern Illinivka and the Berestovyi District.
- On the eastern side, Russian forces infiltrate through the big forest east of the city, periodically hiding in the dugouts and basements of destroyed dachas and then entering the Hora district; there, they divide once again into 2 distinct fluxes: one going into Novodmytrivka, where they were found and struck in its northern outskirts recently, up to Molocharka, and one going deep into eastern Kostyantynivka up to the 92nd Quarter.
- Possible unspecified infiltrations into the southeastern part of the city into the Santurynivka District and through the garbage dump area into the Ukrainskiy Khutir District.
FAQs:
Q: Why are the Russians advancing here?
A: This is happening not because of one evident Ukrainian mistake, but because of massive and constant Russian pressure prolonged for months, if not years, on a single small sector, with extreme amounts of air support launching FABs, KABs, drones of all types, and artillery 24/7.
The closest analogy to the current situation is a dam that is at its cracking phase and might soon either suddenly give up or slowly continue to crack until all the water seeps out. That is, we might see a big but very unlikely Russian breakthrough in the city or a moderate advancement of Russian infiltration groups in the city that will first make these deep infiltrations frequent (gray zone), and then they will try to consolidate these positions, repeating the process until Kostyantynivka is eventually lost.
Q: What can the Ukrainians do?
A: Not much. The Russians still have resources here, and they set this city as one of their main goals for this year, so they will not give up easily whatsoever in attempting to capture it and will commit massive amounts of resources to fulfill this goal.
The only theoretical stabilization might happen after a significant amount of assault units are transferred here, which would have to undertake a big clearing operation, likely at the level, if not bigger, than the Kupyansk operation (which is still ongoing after almost half a year).
Q: What is this scenario comparable to?
A: Mid-Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad, where logistics were already terrible and a significant number of Russian infantry started to infiltrate deeper into the city.
Q: Are the Russian levels of attrition satisfactory for what has been accomplished by them up to now?
A: From the ground, the feeling is that yes, Russian forces have suffered appropriate and significant losses until now, and the battle for the city is still far from over.
In general, it's possible to underline how Russian forces suffer much more in fields than in urban areas.