research lion / building @polyflowmarkets

Joined July 2023
2,588 Photos and videos
i believe TCG coins are memecoins of this cycle in 2021 it was NFTs in 2024 it was memecoins now we're watching people spend hundreds of dollars opening digital pokemon packs backed by tokenized cards sitting in vaults onchain TCG volume went from $10M to $230M in just 17 months pokemon's 30th anniversary is coming this september, which many see as the peak catalyst for the entire sector $CARDS has emerged as the primary liquid proxy for the narrative, while platforms like Courtyard, Phygitals, Beezie, Renaiss, Mnstr and Pullfun are creating a growing airdrop meta around tokenized collectibles the biggest bear case against $CARDS is the unlock schedule but pre-seed unlocks are already underway and the most significant team unlocks don't start until next year if physical pokemon mania continues spilling onchain through september, don't be surprised if TCG coins become one of the strongest narratives of the cycle
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people are trying to sell their locked $LAB allocations OTC in telegram groups some offers are showing up around $1-1.5 while $LAB still trades near $20, implying a 92.5-95% discount to spot the problem is that locked holders can't easily hedge without taking significant funding risk, while buyers know that if a large unlock or sell-off hits, the token could reprice much lower very quickly that's why even a 90% discount isn't attracting much demand crypto is never boring
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this guy is publicly documenting a $5M to $30M challenge and just closed may at $10.4M some of his key takeaways: - crypto's overall capital base isn't growing much right now - the biggest moves are coming from rotation within crypto, not fresh capital entering the market - even a small amount of capital leaving a $250B asset like ETH can have a huge impact on smaller narratives - money tends to flow into the leaders of each narrative (like $HYPE for perps, $ZEC for privacy, etc.) - capital parked in stablecoins is gradually rotating back into crypto - a 20-30% drawdown alone won't change his view; only a broken thesis, deteriorating fundamentals, or regulatory risks would his portfolio remains heavily concentrated in $HYPE and $ZEC, and despite the volatility he hasn't touched either position worth a read
road to (hopefully) $30m | month 2 recap the goal, for anyone new: started with $5m cash in march, $5.9m end of april, $10.4m end of may. crypto as an asset class barely moved. "round 2" is me documenting going from $5m to $30m in spot crypto with proof of every position. fortunately sold solana near the top last cycle. doing this one in public. a good month doesn't mean i'm right. just means i'm up *right now*. things can get ugly very quickly. section 1: what changed ZEC roughly doubled, then gave a chunk back. HYPE gained ~80% and held most of it. BTC sideways the whole month. the portfolio went over $10m mid month, pulled back to the mid-8s on a hard ZEC dip, then recovered into the close. closing the month at $10.4m (up $4.5m from april). i'd be lying if i said i was unfazed by the round-trip to the mid-8s. that pullback was the first time round 2 felt real, not theoretical. the rotation thesis i've been writing about since march is what drove the run. crypto's overall pie isn't growing. BTC is flat since i bought in late march while AI stocks, prediction markets, sports betting, and quantum stocks all soak up speculative capital that used to flow into crypto. that's the structural backdrop. the only way an alt rips in that environment is intra crypto rotation. and the math here is the part most people are missing. HYPE and ZEC combined are ~$25b of circulating market cap. ETH alone is ~$250b, 10x the size of both of my bags put together. if even a small fraction of ETH holders look at a five year flat price chart and ask "why am i still here" and rotate, the math doesn't have to work hard. ETH drops 10%, that's $25b looking for a home, and if even half of it lands in HYPE and ZEC, those coins fly on their own. stablecoin holders are the other half of the story. a lot of people sat in stables waiting for an october 2026 bottom that may or may not arrive. the stablecoin share of total crypto market cap has been declining for two months as that money chases winners. ZEC and HYPE were the winners. some of that stable money found its way in. no new capital required. just rotation, from ETH into the narrative leaders, from stables into the price leaders. that's what drove the run. the late month chop gave some of it back and then took it back again. which brings me to what i actually did about all of it. section 2: what i did nothing. doing nothing through a runup is harder than doing nothing through a flat month. and doing nothing through the pullback that followed is a different kind of hard. when things are flat the inaction defends itself. when things rip, reverse, and recover in the same week, every day you don't act is a day you're choosing a path. there are two playbooks available for spot plays this cycle. worth naming them both. playbook 1: hold towards the cycle top. buy in the bear, ride the drawdowns, sell when the framework says sell. this is what i did with solana last cycle. it requires stomaching real drawdowns. i sat through significant pullbacks on sol after it had already 10x'd. one decision at the start, one decision at the end, a lot of nothing in between. playbook 2: swing and rebuy. trim into strength, buy back on weakness, repeat. on paper this is more profitable if you get it right. in practice you have to be right about three things instead of one: when to sell, when to buy back, what to buy back into. miss any one and you're worse off than just holding. plus short-term cap gains, a ~20% drag on every round-trip. plus you have to find a better asset than what you already own, and i don't. if i did i'd be holding it instead of HYPE and ZEC. i'm picking playbook 1. and this month was the first real test of that. ZEC ran to ~$675, came all the way back to $500, then bounced to $570 into the close. still meaningfully off the high. the playbook 2 move was to have trimmed in the 600s and plan to rebuy lower. the playbook 1 move was to do nothing. the real reason i didn't trim isn't discipline, it's opportunity cost. i want to be in ZEC. if my thesis is right, the pullback might not be deep enough or long enough for a clean rebuy, and i'd end up sidelined in a position i was already correctly in. trimming to chase a better entry when you already have a good one is playing it too cute. so i didn't. obvious caveat: it's easy to talk about playbook 1 when the screenshot i just posted is green. the real test isn't the run up, it's the first 40% drawdown. i sat through one on sol last cycle. i'll find out if that experience transfers when it happens. this week was a small preview, not the real exam. here's the thing about playbook 1 that nobody talks about: it's not easy because it's lazy. it's hard. the entire crypto information environment is built to pull you off it. every week, something else is running. every day, someone on CT is telling you to rotate. when ZEC pulled back this week, my replies filled up with "is it time to rotate to [other coin]?" because the other coin had started moving and ZEC had paused. that's the trap. attention follows momentum, momentum follows attention, and the loop runs on you mistaking short term price action for an actual thesis change. what i keep telling myself: my thesis hasn't broken. HYPE and ZEC were the call when i bought them and the case for both got more confirmed this month, not less. a coin running for a week elsewhere, or my own bag giving back 20% off a high, is noise unless something has actually changed in the coins. nothing has. at my core i'm lazy, and the lazy move and the right move are the same here. it is to do nothing. section 3: what would change my mind a few things, none of them tight rules. if ZEC or HYPE make a meaningful move up over the next month or two, i'd consider trimming some. "meaningful" is intentionally vague. i don't know what the number is until i see it. probably small if i do it. what i'm explicitly not going to react to: ETH or SOL outperforming HYPE and ZEC for a month or two. that's going to happen. these things ebb and flow inside a cycle. ZEC consolidating after a double, or HYPE giving back 20-30% while another major runs, is normal. doesn't break the thesis. doesn't move me. the coin specific thesis break would be one of my bags doing something actually wrong. HYPE's revenue dropping, ZEC failing to capture the privacy narrative when conditions are obviously favorable, a regulatory action targeting either of them directly. and if either ever round trips back to my cost basis, that's when i find out how strong the conviction really is. i don't think it happens, but i'd rather say that now than figure it out in the moment. what won't change my mind: a 20-30% drawdown without a thesis problem. one bad week. one scary headline that doesn't touch the actual reasons i own these. a note before next month at some point i'll publish my full sell framework, the actual conditions that would move me from holding to selling. but that's bull-market content, and right now the more honest question is whether i'd hold these through a real drawdown. so i'll write whichever one the market makes real. probably get to both before this is over. everything in this recap is a snapshot, not a vow. i'm picking playbook 1 today, end of may 2026, with the information i have. if conditions change i'll change with them. and you'll see me say so. flexibility is the point. things are going very well *so far*, but things can change very fast in crypto.
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starting tomorrow @polymarket launches its taker rebate program the system is designed to reward active trading by returning part of previously paid taker fees back to traders rebates apply to all taker trades except geopolitics markets and depend on your 30d weighted volume (wV) formula: wV = trade size × (1 − entry price) × category weight × bonuses what each part means: > wV = your 30d weighted volume; determines your tier and rebate % (see attached tier chart) > trade size = total position size in USD > (1 − entry price) = upside per share > category weight = multiplier based on market category (see attached category table) > bonuses = temporary multipliers from polymarket for example: $400 politics trade at $0.40 400 × 0.60 × 1.3 = 312 wV but the same $400 trade at $0.05 would earn: 400 × 0.95 × 1.3 = 494 wV lower-priced shares earn significantly more wV because the upside is bigger important notes: - rebates only apply going forward after reaching a tier - rebates are paid daily at 00:00 UTC in pUSD - tiers recalculate daily based on the last 30d wV btw you can check your rebate tier here: checkpoly.vercel.app
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so now people are farming abstract fully automated, making profit and pulling 200k XP a week? imagine the faces of people who burned thousands of dollars on abstract for months and still didn’t get even 50% of this XP during weekly distributions i still think abstract is a pretty mid project overall but if you can spend barely any time, farm in profit and potentially position yourself for rewards anyway, then why not
I skipped farming XP on @AbstractChain for way too long, but now that it's FULLY AUTOMATED and you can pull 200k XP IN A WEEK thanks to @OnchainChemists AND FARM AT A PROFIT on top I have massive FOMO that I didn't get around to this sooner just think about it: 12,4% ROI 200k XP, all done in a week, with software, taking about 5 minutes of your time PER WEEK god bless rugbakery and ty @0xDezeter & @Rslanb1
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just found out there’s an entire underground market for negative pnl MEXC accounts people are specifically hunting old losing accounts because they get banned/restricted less while farming MEXC’s zero-fee futures markets with automated high leverage software the setup only works on negative pnl accounts because profitable ones quickly lose the 0% fee promo or get risk controlled some groups are reportedly doing $200-$1000 daily per account depending on market conditions the account owner usually gets 30-35% completely passively just for providing the account access they even have systems for auto-withdrawals, API payouts, reverification, cookie access etc people are literally turning blown up trading accounts into yield farms crypto is genuinely one of the strangest industries on earth
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solstice airdrop recap: > charged users 0.075 SOL just to register > made ~$95,771 from registration fees alone > 1.4m wallets were marked eligible, yet only ~15k registered > promised "most cohorts receive 100% at claim" > ended up giving every wallet only 5-25% unlocked at TGE depending on rank > after claiming your airdrop will still be vested for 3-9 months > 3-month vesting requires maintaining qualifying TVL > only 10 days to claim > unlock 2 (including xeet rewards) happens 41 days after TGE how deep airdrops has fallen...
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buidlpad wants to raise $3M for the Anthropic pre-IPO sale with a 20% upfront subscription fee, they instantly pocket $600,000 before anything even happens then they take another 20% carry on profits later all this while offering exposure at a $950B valuation to a company last priced at $380B just 3 months ago and you don’t even get real shares you’re buying a synthetic derivative issued by the launchpad itself insane
The Anthropic Pre-IPO offering is now live on Buidlpad. Get Pre-IPO access to Anthropic, the AI safety company behind Claude, before it goes public. 📊 Valuation is $950B FDV with a target raise of $3M. 🌐 Accepted assets: USDT and USDC on Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, and Sui. Personal min commitment is $5K, and max cap is $1M in stablecoins. KYC required. Subscribe to proceed with your commitment. FCFS. 🔚 Offering closes May 20, 15:59 UTC. Check details below.
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here’s how you can position yourself for the @polymarket airdrop: 1. trade on polymarket (consider delta-neutral strategies if you want to farm activity with lower exposure) 2. provide liquidity / market make and complete reward tasks for bonus USDC inside the rewards tab 3. refer friends and connect your socials (especially link your X if you create content) 4. create content around your calls, pnl, market takes, top traders, insiders etc. 5. build tools, dashboards or bots around the ecosystem (according to dune, only ~355 projects have been built so far) stuff like building, referrals, prediction activity, holding time and overall ecosystem contribution could matter way more than people think simple as that
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Replying to @Polymarket

Linking your X account to your Poly account is only a third of the equation. You also should probably (what do I know) link your Polymarket profile in your X bio & actively share your trades/wins/insights with the community here :)
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the 2026 world cup is the most logical timing for a $POLY launch > peak sports prediction volume > millions of casual users > massive trading activity > strongest possible demand for fee discounts via staking @mustafap0ly literally just posted a claude code screenshot showing staking $POLY for higher fee rebates it means the token is probably much closer than we think launching $POLY into the biggest sports betting event on earth just makes too much sense
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another $1.8M hack just happened @transitfinance appears to have been exploited for around $1.87m in DAI the attacker address currently still holds the funds on ethereum and even received an onchain legal threat from the team according to the message, transit already completed: - onchain tracing - transaction path analysis - evidence preservation they’re now offering a bug bounty-style settlement if the funds are returned within 48 hours the funds reportedly originated from tron before landing on ethereum the attacker wallet currently has very limited activity besides the exploit-related transfers adress: etherscan.io/address/0x8a634…
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to get into the @polymarket builders top 177, you literally just need more than $2 in volume the competition is non-existent, start building
top 4 ecosystems to build in (some will likely reward early builders) 1. @polymarket > probably the friendliest ecosystem for builders rn > register your app here: builders.polymarket.com > only ~346 on-chain projects currently registered: dune.com/gateresearch/pmbuil… > if you make it onto the leaderboard, there's almost zero chance they ignore you at tge 2. @base > register your app here: base.dev > 9,435 apps registered so far: dune.com/base_ds/base-builde… > sounds crowded, but most apps are completely dead > realistically only the top ~1000 have any meaningful traction 3. @tempo > all info here: tempo.xyz > despite the stripe paradigm backing, daily stats still show only ~100-200 active servers/providers: dune.com/omtesname/tempo-blo… > most of the activity is concentrated among a few major players > the real opportunity is building infra/tools around service providers 4. @arc > builders fund launching soon: arc.network/builders-fund > for now, join the architects program: community.arc.network > still early enough that even simple content/community contributions stand out with ai, building has never been easier given how low the competition still is, this feels way more EV than mindlessly farming random on-chain tasks good luck
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top 4 ecosystems to build in (some will likely reward early builders) 1. @polymarket > probably the friendliest ecosystem for builders rn > register your app here: builders.polymarket.com > only ~346 on-chain projects currently registered: dune.com/gateresearch/pmbuil… > if you make it onto the leaderboard, there's almost zero chance they ignore you at tge 2. @base > register your app here: base.dev > 9,435 apps registered so far: dune.com/base_ds/base-builde… > sounds crowded, but most apps are completely dead > realistically only the top ~1000 have any meaningful traction 3. @tempo > all info here: tempo.xyz > despite the stripe paradigm backing, daily stats still show only ~100-200 active servers/providers: dune.com/omtesname/tempo-blo… > most of the activity is concentrated among a few major players > the real opportunity is building infra/tools around service providers 4. @arc > builders fund launching soon: arc.network/builders-fund > for now, join the architects program: community.arc.network > still early enough that even simple content/community contributions stand out with ai, building has never been easier given how low the competition still is, this feels way more EV than mindlessly farming random on-chain tasks good luck
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billions is the perfect case of a project you should avoid > there’s a product but generates zero revenue > way too much focus on community farming (roles, yapping, nfts, ico) > the $30M vc raise with zero official confirmation > changed sale terms days before tge after a 10-month lock-in > role inflation is insane (3516 og roles, 1640 genesis, 966 super og) > launching on binance alpha > even the most bullish community lead left if you need layers of incentives just to keep people around, maybe there was never real demand to begin with
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this is the list of countries banned in @polymarket how can a project become the #1 prediction market when it’s banned in half the world?
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megaeth surpassed monad tvl, but look closer: - 61% ($300M) of this tvl belongs to @ethena's usdm supply - meaning the remaining organic tvl is ONLY $190.92M the situation doesn't look good if usde yields drop below borrowing costs, that $300M vanishes in a heartbeat and triggers a massive liquidation cascade
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megaeth cooked for the big guys guess what they did to their allocations
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your chance of becoming a millionaire trading on @pumpfun is 0.000245% out of 1.2M wallets: - 45% lost all money - 95% either lost or made under $500 - only 3 wallets cleared $1M profit this is why you should never trade memecoins
pumpfun really burned ~$370m just for the chart to look like this? - no airdrop - no utility and purpose - still didn't replace twitch, tiktok and facebook what was even the point of launching a token?
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