Honest take on the price of XEN...
$XEN is now down 92% year over year and 9% in just the last 7 days, sitting at another all-time low.
At current prices, $10K buys about 1.5 trillion XEN. That’s roughly the equivalent of starting ~75,000 minting VMUs today and waiting 486 days for maturity.
That sounds like a great price to buy, but it isn't. The issue is the cost to mint. You can spin up 75K VMUs for under $900 at 0.03 gwei, which means the market can constantly create far more future supply than it’s currently pricing in.
Right now the network is averaging ~90,000 new minting VMUs every single day.
If nothing in the mechanics changes, the math is simple: continuous minting constant dumping = relentless dilution.
At this pace, purely from the supply mechanics alone,
$XEN could easily be another 90% lower one year from now, as long as
#Ethereum gwei stays low.
So, just a friendly reminder: at the current rate of dilution, 1T XEN below $500-$700 within a year isn’t unrealistic.
Silver lining: ETH gas rarely falls below ~0.03 gwei, even when the chain is practically dead quiet, and
#XEN mint rewards keep relentlessly shrinking every day (APM at 1,747 days). That combination likely puts a future floor somewhere around ~$500 per trillion at which point things may start taking on a positive turn.