Energy, Economics & MENA Geopolitics. Gulf Analyst @MeesEnergy. Nonres S. Fellow @AtlanticCouncil, Affiliate @MiddleEastInst, R. Fellow @IRISmideast - own views

Joined October 2008
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Read my latest: 🔴Middle East Economic Survey - MEES: mees.com/author/yesar-al-mal… 🔴Muckrack: muckrack.com/yesar-al-maleki
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It started yesterday afternoon, and Iran is wasting no time getting its tankers back into circulation. the @WindwardAI platform this morning sees yet another NITC very large crude carrier on the move. Dan left its hidey-hole off Riau archipelago where it's been dark since May 23 and is now heading to Iran for loading.
After a protracted period dark off Chabahar with other sequestered tankers under the US blockade on Iran ports, two Iran-flagged very large crude carriers are sailing from the region with AIS on, past the US blockade. Both had been dark since March 14 and March 27 respectively and switched on their AIS today. Both tankers appear to be leaving the blockade area amid media reports that the memorandum of understanding to be signed in Geneva on Friday will provide Iran with waivers on oil sales. These concessions are likely part of deals to restore freedom of navigation to the Strait of Hormuz. The US administration had provided a 30-day waiver on Iran oil sales earlier in the war to assuage domestic concerns about surging fuel prices. The two tankers Diona (IMO 9569695) and Hero 2 (IMO 9362073) are owned by the National Iranian Tanker Co and were both sanctioned by the US in 2018. Their apparent departure from the blockade suggests that other Iranian-trading tankers are also preparing to resume trading
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Trump and Vance both electronically signed the MOU with Iran. @mb_ghalibaf signed from the Iranian side, U.S. official said
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US-Iran MOU provides for immediate Hormuz opening, Hormuz openings takes time because of mines, expect increase in Hormuz flow in 1-2 weeks - senior US officials briefs reporters
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Senior Iranian political source tells @amwajmedia: As concession following Israel's attack on Beirut, Trump agreed to expedite lifting of the naval blockade. The US blockade will now be lifted immediately. Until 24 hours ago, plan was to phase it out over 30 days.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's official @IRNA_1313 out with its own details of the MOU. For the most part, in line with the @MehrnewsCom report. 1. The nuclear issue remains untouched. No agreement on the nuclear file will be made in the current memorandum and Iran will not make any new commitments. Nuclear talks will be held within 60 days after signing. 2. Strait of Hormuz; No handover, no US role. Iran will not make any commitments regarding handing over the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The future of the Strait management will be resolved within the framework of a regional matter and through joint dialogue and decision-making between Tehran and Oman. 3. A decisive end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. The main goal of the memorandum is to end the war on all fronts in the region. The US pledges to force Israel to end the war in Lebanon, and the phrase “ceasefire extension” is not included in the text. 4. Release of frozen assets with a specific mechanism. Some of the frozen assets will be released immediately after signing, while the rest will be released gradually during the negotiations. Tehran has received clear guarantees based on the mechanisms it wants. 5. War compensation on the agenda The damages caused to Iran in the US and Israeli aggression are among the items mentioned in the memorandum. The implementation mechanism for receiving compensation will be agreed upon in negotiations 60 days after signing. 6. Details of the lifting of primary and secondary sanctions; a topic discussed in the final agreement The lifting of all US sanctions and international resolutions will be reviewed within the 60-day deadline for nuclear negotiations. 7. Three issues and 60 days for a final agreement. Only three issues will be discussed in the 60-day negotiations: the continuation of the peaceful nuclear program, the lifting of unilateral US sanctions, and the compensation mechanism. No other issue, including Iran's missile capabilities, will be on the agenda.
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"... The general outline and text of the MoU to end the war between Iran and the United States have been almost finalized and are awaiting the final decision of the decision-making bodies in Iran..." -- official IRNA news agency irna.ir/xjXxyP

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Thank you for coming, full episode to come with @campbellclaret @Jacob_Rees_Mogg but the Bloomberg Economics analysis I cited is already published pre anniversary
Took a little 'Hormuz break' yesterday evening, attending a @bloomberg event featuring a lively - to say the least - debate on Brexit 10 years after the affair. Many thanks to @MishalHusain and the Bloomberg team for the invite.
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Took a little 'Hormuz break' yesterday evening, attending a @bloomberg event featuring a lively - to say the least - debate on Brexit 10 years after the affair. Many thanks to @MishalHusain and the Bloomberg team for the invite.
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#Opec crude oil production fell again in May, as #MiddleEast producers adjusted to the third month of the #Hormuz crisis. After production slumped by almost 9mn b/d over March and April, the rate of decline slowed markedly last month, but the group's output was a historic low. The first wave of production losses in the Middle East has now drawn to a close, and there are some signs of modest recovery, but output may still drop further this month as #Iran’s oil sector begins to react to the pressure of the US blockade. See @MeesEnergy Opec production assessment for May 👇 mees.com/2026/6/5/opec/opec-… #OOTT
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#Iraq is asking #Kurdistan IOCs to resume production to enable increased pipeline exports to #Turkey. New Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has promised protection from attacks by local militias and compensation for any damage. But #Baghdad has yet to provide any tangible assurances. Plans for pipeline exports reaching 770,000 b/d this summer face multiple obstacles, not least the looming expiry of the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) treaty. My latest for @MeesEnergy with exclusive details from last week's meeting between the new PM and the IOCs👇 mees.com/2026/6/5/geopolitic… #OOTT
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Iraq's new prime minister will come to offer facing unprecedented electricity sector challenges, with the Hormuz crisis exacerbating deep-rooted structural issues. Read the full analysis in MEES: tinyurl.com/48jntkt7
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Today’s Daily Energy Markets Podcast explored an oil market trapped between diplomacy and disruption, as fears over the Strait of Hormuz, inflation and tightening global supplies kept traders on edge. Soundcloud: tinyurl.com/yfnbbjdc Spotify: tinyurl.com/yx9mvkvu APPLE Podcast: tinyurl.com/3c7yn4sh @MysteelGlobal @ChoeibBoutamin @yesar @MeesEnergy
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On the eve of the Trump-Xi summit, some interesting activity in the Strait of Hormuz, with a Chinese-linked oil tanker making the crossing (via the Iranian new lanes). If the Yuan Hua Hu VLCC completes the crossing (she has gone dark now), it would be the 3rd Chinese oil tanker to make it through since the war started. The tanker carries 2m barrels of Iraqi oil.
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Adnoc Gas says its largest gas processing complex, Habshan, is at 60% of capacity after the April strikes. Targets 80% by year-end, only returning to full capacity in mid-2027 #OOTT
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PHOTO OF THE DAY: Far from exploding, Iranian oil wells are pumping and pumping (don't believe everything the White House says). According to @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 imagery, Iran was loading today three (3 !!!) tankers simultaneously at Kharg Island (🛰️📷 May 6 @ 7.16am GMT)
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I told @anadoluagency that the #UAE's decision to leave #OPEC was not a surprise, as it has been frustrated in recent years by its inability to fully utilise its #oil production capacity. The move, amid the ongoing closure of the Strait of #Hormuz, appears timed to limit the impact on market balances and prices. Also, giving Opec enough space to recalibrate policy. Going forward, the UAE will chart an independent oil policy, while Opec will assess measures to compensate for the key member's market share and spare capacity. #OOTT aa.com.tr/en/economy/opec-ex…
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