Deep Dive is out my terminally online friends. A nice weekend read to bring you upto speed on everything Prediction Markets. I talk - a lot in here. Bear with me!! The aim is for anyone reading to choose the topics of their interest and then explore that topic further 1. Why do we need onchain prediction markets? 2. How are modern prediction markets designed? 3. The absolute dominance of @Polymarket and @Kalshi 4. The Predictive Power of Prediction Markets 5. Five Unsolved Problems plaguing the category 6. Some recommendations for solving these problems (And the startups already doing so) 7. Prediction Market Adjacent Apps that are at a critical juncture 8. How to value the market opportunity here 9. Real risks that are not discussed by the permabulls 10. My expectations from a Polymarket token DMs always open if you're building something cool in the prediction markets space. I want to try and test as many new products as possible

Introducing the Token Design Toolkit A free tool from Delphi Consulting to model your token design before launch Stress-test unlocks, liquidity, and demand, then simulate to compare designs Get insight into your token economy here: delphi.link/Tokentool

Stop what you're doing and read up - eye opening piece which is hyper relevant given the SpaceX IPO is here

The Zcash chart looks like its q-day for zec

Ngl, think there's going to be quite a few insane moments coming out of this before they pump the brakes on this one Also Should I add a bounty for alon to pump pump??

Been waiting to read this for a while now Gg @yusufxzy

Token markets are broken by design. Buying every new listing across the major CEXs since 2025 would have lost retail about half its capital. The median listing fell 82%, and exchanges have become a place where early holders sell into retail buyers. Tokens with monthly unlock schedules underperformed BTC by about 7% in the week leading upto and weeks after each unlock event. What makes token outperformance difficult is that the next unlock usually arrived before the market has had the opportunity to absorbed the last. Six major airdrops saw 78 to 94% of recipient wallets sell off most of their allocation by day 90. One of those programs paid roughly $1 billion in token value to wallets that haven't stayed around. The best designs are simple. They now route revenue back to holders and tie supply releases to performance milestones. A revenue-weighted basket of the 10 highest-revenue protocols has outperformed BTC, ETH, and SOL since January 2025. What's left is one of the strongest setups crypto investing has had: fewer tokens, better designed, and structural buyers replacing the hedge funds that exited.

Our new report "State of Token Markets" is live! Most tokens spend their lifetime below launch price. Across 540 tokens launched since 2020, the average token spent 70% of its life below launch. Tokens launched at inflated FDVs with minimal float, which handed the initial pop to insiders and farmers. The typical token underperformed BTC by 7% per unlock. By the tenth unlock that underperformance had compounded to -47%. Now the model is shifting. Hyperliquid routes 97% of protocol fees into HYPE buybacks. Uniswap voted in December to burn $600M of supply and flip its fee switch, with the burn sized to match the fees holders would have received since 2018. But buybacks alone aren't enough. Jupiter ran a similar program but had $3.78 in unlocks for every $1 bought back. Hyperliquid has been the outlier since no insider supply was fighting the bid. Buybacks only matter when supply discipline matches them. Revenue alone doesn't guarantee market cap growth. Pump runs one of the largest onchain buyback programs but that hasn’t translated into durable token performance. A revenue-weighted portfolio of the top 10 protocols by revenue returned 30% since January 2025 while BTC was down 17%. The market is now paying for real cash flow.

Maybe Saylor was the only one buying?

“HIP-4 is Polymarket on Hyperliquid, therefore Hyperliquid takes all of Polymarkets volume” ^ i think the above is often the way in which people describe and think about HIP4. While the outcome contract largely functions the same, I think the above statement wildly underestimates the retail friendliness of Polymarket. I believe that asset underlying outcome markets can see meaningful growth and be the spark to lead meaningful vault growth on Hyperliquid, but it is misguided to assume HIP4 takes meaningful marketshare in the next 12 months from Polymarket/Kalshi when it comes to sports, political, and culture markets. HIP-4 introduces a new contract type that lets users trade discrete event outcomes alongside spot and perps on Hyperliquid. For tradfi readers, these outcome markets essentially function as binary options. My base case is that HIP-4 is incremental, and over time, one of the key pieces to meaningful vault growth as an asset manager's core trading instruments, spot, perps, and binary options, can be used at their discretion. The market for short-dated, bounded payoffs is real, and the economics at modest market capture are meaningful in absolute terms but don't move the bottom line until we see large marketshare capture or growth. This is not a HIP-3-style zero-to-one moment for new deployer entrants; the existing HIP-3 winners and dominant frontends are best positioned to absorb the surface area. With HIP-4 introducing a new way speculators can express a bet, I expect vaults to see significant growth over the next 12-24 months along with steady treasury yield from USDC (AQAv2) as there are now less reasons to move capital off Hyperliquid. The cleanest investable expression remains HYPE itself, with a handful of entrants carving out a niche share in exotic markets (politics, sports).

150M to AF revenue and that scales with stablecoin growth and economic regimes jeff got them to cough up

Our new report "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It" is now live! STRC has become the center of Strategy’s BTC accumulation model. The question now is whether each new raise can still add BTC per share after accounting for the common issuance needed to service the preferred stack. Strategy’s earlier BTC purchases were powered by a wide equity premium. MSTR traded far above the value of its BTC holdings which made new share issuance accretive. At ~1.24x EV-based mNAV, that math is weaker. Common issuance sits close to the breakeven line and no longer gives Strategy the same clean path to BTC/share growth. Convertibles were useful because buyers accepted low coupons for MSTR volatility. They also left behind $8.2B of principal and a repayment schedule that starts to matter in September 2027. STRC now carries more of the load. It gives Strategy access to yield buyers underwriting an 11.5% annual dividend paid monthly, rather than MSTR equity upside. The proceeds can keep flowing into BTC without adding another convert maturity. The tradeoff is the recurring claim STRC creates. Each raise adds Bitcoin today and another dividend obligation tomorrow. If BTC rises and MSTR’s premium holds, the structure can absorb that cost. If BTC chops sideways, the obligation stack grows while common issuance becomes less efficient. The stress case is whether STRC-funded BTC purchases can keep outrunning the common issuance needed to service the preferred stack. Strategy’s $2.25B dollar reserve can handle the ~$1B September 2027 put. This buys time but the larger 2028 wall still needs an answer. The next boundary is the $28.3B STRC authorization cap. Before the cap, STRC can keep adding BTC and offsetting dividend-related dilution. Without an extension to STRC issuance capacity, reaching the cap means the BTC-buying offset can slow or stop while the dividend obligation remains.

ZEC holders are the funniest lol They'll be the loudest to announce they have "private" money Yes the point of private money is to let eveyone and their mom know that you have assets in a private SOV

I miss 2021

I can spot Claude's design from a mile away now. Signature elements repeated across all themes of webpages

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