Decoding global chaos through prediction markets. From Ukraine fronts to Middle East bets – insider vibes on wars, elections, and tariffs on @ZEITFinance
Joined December 2024
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Pinned Tweet
Jan 30
🚨ANOTHER Polymarket SCAM by ISW ! 🚨
This is time making up fake counterattacks to rug a 99c YES market.
For context, ISW (@TheStudyofWar) is the official resolution mapper.
They are well known to abuse their position to scam Polymarket by painting fake advances.
They even had to publicly appologised after caught red handed in November.
here is the timeline of their latest rug :
> This morning Russian channels release video of Russians soldier raising flags all over the town of Ternuvate
> ISW paints a Russian presence in the town
> price for the corresponding market shoots up to 99c
> ISW reverse their changes a few hours later citing rumors of a Ukrainian counterattack
> Price immediately crashes back down
> NO shares that were bought at 0.5c are now worth 25c (50x)
--- WE ARE HERE ---
Problem is that the "evidences" behind this counterattack are totally fabricated
Let's examine them bellow 👇🧵
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UPDATE : Chances of Peace Deal have skyrocketed to 92% after Trump's announcement ( 255%)
Chances of a Nuclear deal went down but are now lower than that of a peace deal.
Peace deal by June -> 92%
Nuclear deal by June -> 84%
The spread has been captured as expected. I'm now exiting my positions with very safe profit
Something is not right with how these markets are priced.
US-Iran nuclear deal by June -> 31% 🇺🇸☣️🇮🇷
US-Iran permanent peace deal -> 26% 🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷
Makes no sense to the Nuclear deal odds would be higher than the peace deal odds.
In fact it should be the other way around
Imo the peace deal odds are mostly right, maybe even a bit low.
Not because it's likely that a full fledged definitive peace deal will be signed this month, but because the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding, that almost happened last month, might trigger a yes resolution.
A Memorandum of Understanding is basically a declaration of intention to negociate, it signals the definitive end of fighting, the themes on which to negociate and a rough timeline of negociations.
We got a glimpsed at the Iranian proposed MoU and depending on it's exact wording, it might or might not suffice to resolve the "Permanent Peace Deal" market, but one thing that is certain is that every version we saw included a clause pushing back the Nuclear negociations *to a later phase*
Sometimes it's 30 days, some times it's 60, but what is clear is that with this plan we are not getting a nuclear deal before peace.
I will go heavy on "NO nuclear deal", hedge it with smaller "Peace Deal YES"
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Invest in my vault if you wanna profit from the next plays
manager.zeit.finance/vaults/…
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Internet Child retweeted
11h
TLDR deep dive into @ZEITFinance under the hood, came out pretty elegant imo:
A minimal onchain share vault (boring-vault pattern: Vault Teller Accountant FeeManager) wrapped around an offchain solver that turns Polymarket trading into a clean ERC-20 you can deposit into.
One atomic roll
Every epoch, ALL deposits withdrawals settle in a single rollEpoch tx. Shares get bulk-minted once, then each user claims their cut with an O(\log n) Merkle proof instead of N onchain writes.
Trustless data availability
The full claim set every Merkle proof is archived to Arweave; only the roots the Arweave URI go onchain. Result: any roll is independently replayable, and you can self-serve your claim even if our servers are down.
Real mark-to-market
NAV doesn't just trust mid prices - it simulates selling each position into the live CLOB order book (slippage & fees aware) to get a realizable share price.
Omnichain shares, no bridge pool.
Vault shares ARE a native LayerZero OFT - lock on Polygon, mint on the destination chain. Sign
one EIP-712 intent and a relayer does claim-and-bridge for you, with the claim bridge params cryptographically bound to that one signature
Shout out to @dvinubius @micovi7 to get this designed and built (before Mythos)
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Internet Child retweeted
Jun 13
Does a Zoom call counts as a diplomatic meeting ??
If not i'm printing with this one.
NO diplomatic meeting on any close timelines
Jun 12
Looks like there won't be a meeting on Sunday
I'm betting against it for a quick 25% 💸
On the YES side :
- Iranian FM Araghchi confirm that "an MoU has never been closer"
- Pakistani PM confirming that a text agreement has been reached
- US side talking about a deal being signed in Geneva on Sunday
On the NO side :
- Final version of the deal not yet approved
- Marandi (insider close to Iranian negociators) denying any meeting in Geneva on Sunday
- Fars news agency denying the meeting to
- less than 3 days left
- Deal to be signed in European or central Asian timezone which reduce the window by about 10h compared to official resolution deadline in US timezone.
I believe an MoU will be reached soon, but 15th June seems like a tight deadline for a diplomatic meeting.
There is no indication that any in person meeting would be needed to announce an MoU and since it's only an opening stage to negotiations, there would be no need to rush for a meeting on the next day.
I bought some "Permanent peace deal YES" to hedge because i believe this MoU will qualify for resolution, but a diplomatic meeting will probably take a few more days to take place after the agreement.
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Internet Child retweeted
Jun 13
How does ZEIT Finance value vaults to issue tokens? 🤔
While market price is whatever someone is willing to pay, the fundamental value is its redemption value: a pro-rata share of the Vault’s Net Asset Value (NAV).
Here’s how we calculate it fairly: 👇
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Internet Child retweeted
Jun 13
If you've tried combos on Polymarket you probably got hit with this error
"⚠️Combo unavailable, there are currently no available quotes"
This is not a bug but simply due to how combos are implemented.
Combos are not a simple multiplication of odds across markets.
If leg one is at 50% and leg two is at 50% it doesn't necessarily mean that the fair value of the parlay is 25% (0.5*0.5=0.25)
For independent football matches this naive approach might work because they are mostly uncorrelated.
But what if they want to expand the system to other markets ?
For example :
"US Iran peace deal" -> 50%
"Iran opens the strait of Hormuz" -> 50%
Peace deal Hormuz Combo = 25% ???
Not at all, everyone understand that these events are highly correlated, the fair odds of the combo are almost the same as those of a single leg
There is no automatic way to compute these correlations, so market makers must make the call on what every individual combo is truly worth.
But the number of combo is *combinatorial*
10 leg parlay from 20 possible markets = 20! / 10! * (20 - 10)! = 184756 possible combos
No market maker can quote all of that, so you will never have combo for every market combination
Only the most popular ones
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Jun 12
Looks like there won't be a meeting on Sunday
I'm betting against it for a quick 25% 💸
On the YES side :
- Iranian FM Araghchi confirm that "an MoU has never been closer"
- Pakistani PM confirming that a text agreement has been reached
- US side talking about a deal being signed in Geneva on Sunday
On the NO side :
- Final version of the deal not yet approved
- Marandi (insider close to Iranian negociators) denying any meeting in Geneva on Sunday
- Fars news agency denying the meeting to
- less than 3 days left
- Deal to be signed in European or central Asian timezone which reduce the window by about 10h compared to official resolution deadline in US timezone.
I believe an MoU will be reached soon, but 15th June seems like a tight deadline for a diplomatic meeting.
There is no indication that any in person meeting would be needed to announce an MoU and since it's only an opening stage to negotiations, there would be no need to rush for a meeting on the next day.
I bought some "Permanent peace deal YES" to hedge because i believe this MoU will qualify for resolution, but a diplomatic meeting will probably take a few more days to take place after the agreement.
Nothing is happening in Geneva on Sunday. There is still work to do.
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Jun 12
I already took position on my vault if you wanna invest along
app.zeit.finance/vault/vault…
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Internet Child retweeted
Jun 11
Another $3M volume market rugged by a clarification ⚠️
Polymarket resolved the "will Trump restart project freedom" to YES based on a very dubious interpretation of this Truth social post.
Not even the market believed it in !
Odds only went up to a peak 30% when the tweet came out and sat at 17.5% when the surprise YES clarification came in.
Project freedom was, by it's broadest definition, an attempt to send military vessels through the strait of Hormuz to escort civilian ships.
Trump tweeted yesterday talking about :
"a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Strait of Hormuz"
But the US has for month claimed it was aiding to commercial ships through the strait by providing intelligence, air cover, and doing mine sweeping.
This is not new and does not constitute a de facto "Project Freedom 2", else the market would have resolved last month already and basically every day.
There is no indication anywhere in the post that an escort was sent to guide the ships through, and it did not in fact happen.
Sometimes i think they should just actually leave resolution to $UMA.
It has become extremely unreliable to trade Geopolitical markets with these wild clarifications
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Internet Child retweeted
Jun 12
ZEIT SEASON
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Internet Child retweeted
Jun 12
NO WAY !
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Jun 11
Another $3M volume market rugged by a clarification ⚠️
Polymarket resolved the "will Trump restart project freedom" to YES based on a very dubious interpretation of this Truth social post.
Not even the market believed it in !
Odds only went up to a peak 30% when the tweet came out and sat at 17.5% when the surprise YES clarification came in.
Project freedom was, by it's broadest definition, an attempt to send military vessels through the strait of Hormuz to escort civilian ships.
Trump tweeted yesterday talking about :
"a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Strait of Hormuz"
But the US has for month claimed it was aiding to commercial ships through the strait by providing intelligence, air cover, and doing mine sweeping.
This is not new and does not constitute a de facto "Project Freedom 2", else the market would have resolved last month already and basically every day.
There is no indication anywhere in the post that an escort was sent to guide the ships through, and it did not in fact happen.
Sometimes i think they should just actually leave resolution to $UMA.
It has become extremely unreliable to trade Geopolitical markets with these wild clarifications
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Jun 11
as a reminder, they clarified the "will trump announce the end of the naval blockade" market to NO a week ago because they judged that Trump writing "the blockade will now be lifted" was an ambiguous announcement.
I'd like some consistency on the level of proof we need
x.com/0xinternetchild/status…
May 30
WTF ???
How did they Polymarket clarify that shit to NO ?
Do rules even matter anymore ?
The market is "Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by".
Keywords there are *TRUMP* and *ANNOUNCES*.
The rules explicitly mention that :
1 - The market will resolve solely on announcement
2 - A post from Trump on his Truth Social account will qualify.
So when Trump posted yesterday on Truth Social that the blockade "will now be lifted" you would think the market would resolve to YES.
Well NO ❌
After the odds pumped 5x Polymarket issued a clarification saying the post would not qualify because it was "ambiguous" whether or not the lifting of the blockade was contingent on Iran accepting Trump's terms.
There is no ambiguity in the statement. Trump states that the blockade is being lifted "now", before Iran accepting any demands.
Yes it is very possible that Trump will change his mind if Iran doesn't comply soon but this is reaching too far.
The market is about whether Trump will "announce" the blockade is lifted, and the rules themselves say that it is irrelevant whether or not the blockade really is lifted.
I personally prefer markets resolving on event rather than announcement, but if you correctly create a market resolving on announcement, with title and rules matching, then you should let it resolve on announcement !
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Internet Child retweeted
Jun 10
FatMbappe is going institutional 🏆
My $FAV8 World Cup Vault is live on @ZeitFinance.
We’re buying equal YES shares across the top 8 World Cup favorites. Current basket: ~81¢. Payout if one of them wins: $1.
Target gross upside: ~23.5% before fees.
🧵🧵🧵
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Jun 10
Getting vindicated right now
A few hours after that post Russian have been spotted deep in the east side of Lyman.
The mistake there would be to get greedy and buy YES for June.
The actual play is to buy NO for june ( 9%/20day = 399% APY ) 💸
The chances of Russia actually capturing the train station this month are pretty low as it's the most reinforced district (i'd say 10%)
But knowing the pro Ukrainian bias of the resolution mapper, the chances of the map being updated in time even if that happens are also no more than 10%.
Usually they take months to acknowledge Russian gains in critical sectors
my fair estimate for the June deadline is thus around 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.01 (1%)
I'm sizing small for now and hoping for new geolocations to drop to short the next price bumps
Will Russia capture Lyman by December -> YES ( 92%) 💸
The situation has been developing very interestingly there
Russians have been pushing in the center of the city, reaching the lake (red arrows).
If they can solidify in that area the are threatening to cut off the Ukrainian defenders gathered around the train station district.
In theory they still have supply routes going through the forest, bug given the intensity of the fighting there in the last months i doubt there is still much forest left.
Overall the logistic situation is dire :
- presence of increasing number of russian within the city
- the wide Donetsk river to the back of the city, forcing supply through a few chokepoints
- semi encirclement on both sides
- remaining supply routes constantly harassed by drones
I don't think the city has more than a few months left to hold, especially if we are talking about the target point of the market (in blue)
We know that the mapper used by Polymarket (ISW) is very pro Ukrainian so i expect them to mark any advances with a delay
but still December should be comfortable
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Jun 10
I bought a small position with my vault on this (2% bankroll)
I'm aiming to increase it to 10% by month end profiting from YES spikes on possible upcoming geolocations
app.zeit.finance/vault/vault…
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Internet Child retweeted
Will Russia capture Lyman by December -> YES ( 92%) 💸
The situation has been developing very interestingly there
Russians have been pushing in the center of the city, reaching the lake (red arrows).
If they can solidify in that area the are threatening to cut off the Ukrainian defenders gathered around the train station district.
In theory they still have supply routes going through the forest, bug given the intensity of the fighting there in the last months i doubt there is still much forest left.
Overall the logistic situation is dire :
- presence of increasing number of russian within the city
- the wide Donetsk river to the back of the city, forcing supply through a few chokepoints
- semi encirclement on both sides
- remaining supply routes constantly harassed by drones
I don't think the city has more than a few months left to hold, especially if we are talking about the target point of the market (in blue)
We know that the mapper used by Polymarket (ISW) is very pro Ukrainian so i expect them to mark any advances with a delay
but still December should be comfortable
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Don't wanna leak but ... I might have pierced that mystery already
Jun 9
Something big later today!
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Will Russia capture Lyman by December -> YES ( 92%) 💸
The situation has been developing very interestingly there
Russians have been pushing in the center of the city, reaching the lake (red arrows).
If they can solidify in that area the are threatening to cut off the Ukrainian defenders gathered around the train station district.
In theory they still have supply routes going through the forest, bug given the intensity of the fighting there in the last months i doubt there is still much forest left.
Overall the logistic situation is dire :
- presence of increasing number of russian within the city
- the wide Donetsk river to the back of the city, forcing supply through a few chokepoints
- semi encirclement on both sides
- remaining supply routes constantly harassed by drones
I don't think the city has more than a few months left to hold, especially if we are talking about the target point of the market (in blue)
We know that the mapper used by Polymarket (ISW) is very pro Ukrainian so i expect them to mark any advances with a delay
but still December should be comfortable
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I already picked up some YES for my vault over the last few months anticipating this situation.
If you wanna invest here is the link
app.zeit.finance/vault/vault…
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