A civilization isn’t measured by technology or by money. It’s measured by the absence of violence and fear of violence among the population. By that metric, we need to reconsider which countries are truly civilized.

If The New York Times got its hands on leaked audio recordings from the Situation Room, then we have a massive national security crisis on our hands. That very likely means our enemies know everything that’s been said in that room, at least since Trump took over. This should be a massive scandal.

🚨 Coincidence? New Fed chairs have a remarkable track record. Stocks fall in their first three months. Almost every single time. The S&P 500 drawdown in the first three months of each new chair: – Powell: -7% – Yellen: -4% – Bernanke: -2% – Greenspan: -33% – Volcker: -10% – Miller: -3% – Burns: -7% – Martin: -8% – McCabe: -4% – Eccles: -8% – Black: -21% – Meyer: -32% Average: -12%. Twelve new chairs. Twelve drawdowns. Not one got a free pass. And the two worst should make you sit up. Greenspan inherited the market in August 1987. Two months later came the largest one-day crash in history. Eugene Meyer took over in 1930, straight into the teeth of the Great Depression. Now look at the calendar. Kevin Warsh was just sworn in as the 17th Fed chair. His first rate decision and first press conference land this Wednesday. The market has never heard him set policy in the role. It doesn't yet know his reaction function, his tolerance for pain, or whether the famous "Fed put" still exists under new management. And this uncertainty arrives at the exact moment the four-year cycle enters its weakest seasonal window. The mid-term summer. The stretch that has produced more drawdowns than any other in the entire presidential cycle. A new, untested Fed chair. A market relearning who has its back. The weakest seasonality of the cycle. The largest IPO supply in history draining liquidity. All landing in the same few weeks. History doesn't repeat. But it's lining up an awful lot of rhymes at once. The market always tests the new chair. This Wednesday, the test begins.

So what is in "The Deal with Islamic Republic of Iran"? If you're confused, it's normal: the US and Iran already publicly disagree on what they agreed to, and it's not even a "deal": just a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that sets the terms for negotiating the actual deal within the next 60 days. We do, however, know a few things: 1) Israel is actively trying to undermine the deal - for instance by striking Beirut yesterday Sunday. Israeli media say that the deal is causing "profound concern among Israeli officials," that "Israel, despite having started the war alongside the US, was not involved in the negotiations," and that "the deal do[es] not achieve the goals of the war that were set out by the US and Israel" (timesofisrael.com/us-iran-re…). That last part is clear: the very existence of this MOU proves the objectives of the war were not met, as they certainly didn't include the US negotiating an exit with an undefeated Iran while Israel is freaking out about it on the sidelines. 2) We know, because both parties and Pakistan (the mediator) confirmed it, that a finalized MOU does exist and that it's due to be formally signed on Friday in Switzerland by JD Vance and maybe Trump himself (Vance told Fox News: “I certainly plan to be there, but it’s possible the president himself could be there” nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dea…) 3) We know Trump ordered the US naval blockade to be lifted (supposedly today, Monday) 4) The Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the Iranian side (though both parties publicly spun the terms differently - Trump says "toll-free," Iran's FM Araghchi says with "service fees") 5) The war would end on all fronts including Lebanon - both sides used this exact phrase. Israel, obviously, is trying hard to spoil this. 6) Some form of sanctions relief is included - Iran speaks of "termination of all sanctions" (fortune.com/2026/06/14/iran-…) and a senior US official confirmed the structure is "Iran would earn economic rewards each time it met a set of US demands" 7) The MOU apparently does not agree on anything wrt nuclear, just that it will be discussed during the 60-day negotiation window, with Iran maintaining its current nuclear status quo in the meantime 8) In fact I suspect the MOU defers most things truly contested - like nuclear - to later negotiations while resolving in the immediate only the problems the war itself created: stop shooting, reopen the strait (under updated Iranian rules), and lift the blockade. Which means that, most likely, this "deal" is - at this stage - less a deal than an acknowledgement of the new status quo reached in the war. It differs from the April 5 ceasefire in that, this time, the US is lifting all coercion it introduced in the war - including the naval blockade it imposed on April 13. So in effect the war had two phases of failed coercion (military, then economic with the blockade), and the MOU formalizes the failure of both. In exchange what the US is getting is a conversation about its initial stated war objectives (like nuclear), which it will now have to pursue after having proven it cannot impose them by force. Needless to say, you don't get better terms at the table after showing you couldn't get them on the battlefield 🤷

There is no way to spin this, Trump has lost a tremendous war to the Iranians who have outsmarted him and are in a much stronger position than before Feb 27th. No matter what happens Iran will be getting billions of dollars from the US government to end this absolute disaster of US Foreign Policy. Of course Trump will spin this as a massive win for the USA and tell his loyal followers that because of his "expert" negotiations, Iran has agreed to not develop a nuclear bomb, but this has been the consistent message from Iran for years, and in fact this was already guaranteed under Obama's deal.

Introducing the Fusion API, the smartest compound model in the market. Fusion achieves Fable-level intelligence at half the price. How it works 👇

If you want to learn an industry, take book recommendations from operators over investors and academics. The latter two will confidently lead you astray with famous math-heavy works that are at best practically useless, but oftentimes just straight wrong.

MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA HOW GOOD OF AN INVESTOR GOOGLE IS 6% OF SPACEX 14% OF ANTHROPIC 75% OF WAYMO $900M INTO SPACEX IN 2015 → NOW WORTH $115B $13B INTO ANTHROPIC → NOW WORTH $140B WAYMO JUST RAISED $16B AT A $126B VALUATION → GOOGLE’S STAKE WORTH ~$95B. THOSE THREE BETS ALONE ARE WORTH OVER $350B AND THEY HAVE 100’S MORE SMALLER ONES $GOOGL

U.S. JOB CUTS SURGE TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2020 AS LAYOFFS ACCELERATE AMERICAN EMPLOYERS ANNOUNCED 97,000 JOB CUTS IN MAY, MARKING WORST MONTH IN FIVE YEARS

Our elections are rigged, not all of them, but key races. It not only happens through machine flipping votes, but through mail in ballot fraud as well. But there is a significant problem that many people aren’t aware of and that’s massive amounts of fake social media accounts pushing psyops on the American people to sway public opinion. Most of this comes through foreign interests and foreign influence. And it helps both parties to ensure certain outcomes. On the 250th anniversary of America, the American people don’t control our government. Many average Americans already know we have no control and that’s why they don’t see any reason to vote.

No they won’t. The tech oligarchs are the most useless set of elites imaginable. No set of rich people in American history have been as useless a drain on society as they have

The richest guy on Earth SHOULD be the guy making cutting edge cars and rockets instead of dudes who sell purses and perfumes or dudes who run investment firms or dudes who made Facebook.

Looks like University of California leadership is going to water down the admissions requirements right at the moment when they should instead be bringing back the SATs just like all the Ivies did

This deal reopens a body of water that was open before the war and begins a nuclear negotiation far narrower than what Trump was seeking before the war. All at a staggering cost to the entire world while leaving an IRGC-led government that feels strengthened.

California is a case study in how a rich society can spend more and more while producing less and less of what its ordinary citizens need. The paradox of California today is a successful economy attached to a failing model of governance. Well said @FareedZakaria.

Are you telling me my tax dollars are being sent to rebuild all the shit that Pete Hegseth blew up also with my tax dollars

RT @BrianJBerletic: The Philippines faces an existential threat. No, not "Chinese expansionism in the South CHINA Sea," but the fact the P…

Susan and I are proud to commit $6.25 billion to give 25 million American children a real head start. 🇺🇸 $250 into their @InvestAmerica24 @TrumpAccounts compounding in the stock market, owned by them. 📈 From my dorm-room start with $1,000 to building opportunity for the next generation. 🚀 Every child deserves skin in the game. 👶 See if your child qualifies: investamerica.org/dell/

I am proud to be teaming up with Karen Bass' brother in suing his sister for her reckless negligence that led to the destruction of our homes. I hope their Thanksgiving dinner isn't too awks. I know ours hasn't been the same since last year...

Peter Thiel on Elon Musk: My number one rule is to never compete with Elon on anything, so I would never bet against Elon “I was a close partner of his at PayPal in the late 90s early 2000s and after PayPal, Elon set out to start these two both rocket and car companies, SpaceX and Tesla I think the conventional wisdom on Elon was that these were both completely harebrained projects and if one of them had succeeded that you have to sort of question it and when both of them succeeded, it suggests that he knows something other people don’t”

Reasons why people get their MBA: - 25% looking for a husband / wife - 25% generationally wealthy and bored - 25% looking to cheat on their husband / wife - 5% pursuit of knowledge - 10% search fund bros - 10% career change