It's been one year since "Brazil's January 6," and in many ways its democracy seems to have recovered -- army back in barracks, Lula w/ popularity above 50%, no major right-wing protest movement or talk of impeachment in Congress.
But this wasn't some divine miracle: Lula has spent $$$$$$ to give military new hardware & more, also doling out record "discretionary spending" to conservatives & others in Congress. Brazil courts moved more quickly than US to prosecute rioters. Critically, Electoral Court also rapidly disqualified Bolsonaro from running for president again, on charges he abused power and spread lies about voting system.
Where does it leave us? Honestly today Brazil looks pretty stable. The likely heir to Bolsonaro's movement is a conservative governor of São Paulo who appears to respect democratic rules. The economy grew 3% last year and looks set for solid growth again in 2024, unemployment at 10-year low. The Army is led by a democrat who is trying to de-politicize the ranks. New poll shows 89% of Brazilians reject the failed insurrection of a year ago (If only we had that kind of near-unanimity in the US!!).
But Brazil also has shown us, time and again, how quickly things can change. IF the economy hits unexpected turbulence, and/or there's a major new corruption scandal, all bets are off. It's certainly happened before.