That’s an impressive head and shoulders on a massive, passive, super(annuation) bubble. With negative gearing and cgt end to smash housing and an insane banking bubble entirely geared to property. Minsky effect will be huge. And we likely gonna have fuel shortages. ASX 1500.

Auction results - Sold To Listed - Sydney 30.1% (27.5% last non-holiday weekend) - Melbourne 38.9% (38.3%) A bump for Sydney & Melbourne from the results seen a fortnight ago, but both cities remain near all time record lows for my data set (ex-public holidays, Xmas since 2018). History suggests we will see a combination of gradually altered vendor expectations pulling prices lower and lower auction volumes eventually boosting headline clearance rates. If that does not come to pass and stock continues to build on the market, that is when significantly larger and swifter downside scenarios may come into play. No insight's from SQM this week due to last weekend being a public holiday impacted result, so that will be back with next week's results. Methodology noted in graphic below. #AvidAuctions

BREAKING NEWS: Australia's public broadcaster ABC News just accused @elonmusk of ''inciting racial tension'' in Belfast because he did not censor footage showing a Sudanese refugee attempting to behead someone. They're angrier at Elon than at the stabber.

Gold off 2% today taking it down 25% from January's all-time high

Seeing a number of ASX small caps at quite cheap valuations right now A couple thoughts around this: 1) they look cheap on earnings or book value metrics, but do these values ‘hold’ given our economic backdrop and in ‘Albo’s Australia 🥴’ ? 2) this Federal govt has in some ways just made small cap investing for capital returns significantly less attractive Does this push interest out of the sector and push vals down further? Are small caps now better incentivized to pay out more of their earnings as divs, play it a bit safer and place less big bets on growth ? This would hold back innovation and productivity, exactly the opposite of what the government purportedly wants to do If the div yield is high and / or the stock sits cheap due to lack of retail interest, do these cos ultimately get a bid ? @GeoffWilsonWAM thoughts ?

When Mark Baum realised that people were buying homes with only 5% down that the US was in a bubble that would start the GFC The Albanese government introduced a 5% scheme last year youtube.com/shorts/XWuIQCVP7…

The real estate slow down across Australia is happening. Despite what buyers agents and real estate agents are saying. Perth time on market has skyrocketed. #ausbiz

The Australia Institute, Greens, ACOSS, ACTU, Saul Eslake, Labor for Housing, Alan Kohler, Everybodys Home, and many others claimed the 1999 tax changes turbocharged house prices. They should now be predicting a reversal. This is a test of their credibility they will likely fail.

ChatGPT is amazing. That doesn’t include its drawings.

That’s an impressive head and shoulders on a massive, passive, super(annuation) bubble. With negative gearing and cgt end to smash housing and an insane banking bubble entirely geared to property. Minsky effect will be huge. And we likely gonna have fuel shortages. ASX 1500.

Where are all the first home buyers? Or have we realised yet that making everyone poorer won’t get anyone a house?

Auction results - Sold To Listed - Sydney 27.5% (27.5% last weekend) - Melbourne 38.3% (39.4%) Sydney unchanged from the all time lows of last week, based on my data set that goes back to 2018 (ex-public holidays and Xmas season). Another very high 45.5% auctions unreported. This could theoretically lead to somewhat of a boost in the final SQM results on Tuesday, but that is far from certain. Melbourne's bounce falters, seeing it drop back toward its recent lows. Last week saw a significant bounce in the final SQM figures for Sydney vs what was seen in my results, while Melbourne interestingly saw the opposite. Either way, both markets remain in a zone of extreme weakness not seen since the impact of the pandemic. With the changes to property investor tax concessions to continue to feed into the market, further weakness appears likely. Methodology noted in graphic below. #AvidAuctions

The worlds largest housing bubble, New Zealand, is imploding...is Canada next?

Saying “a crash is coming at some point” is as bold as saying “it will rain again eventually”

Both sides are greatly exaggerating the importance of the tax changes. No, they won't improve affordability. Prices will fall about 2%. But nor will start-ups flee. CGT-avoiders could have moved to NZ, but didn't. Nor was there any surge after 2000. Does anyone look at evidence?