Host @schoolofwarpod, national security analyst @CBSNews, columnist @TheFP

Joined November 2013
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We produced nearly 100 episodes of @schoolofwarpod in 2025. It was quite a year: authors like Stephen Kotkin (Ep. 180), Andrew Roberts (Ep. 189), @DouglasKMurray (Ep. 193), Walter Russell Mead (Ep. 186), and @barrystrauss (Ep. 224). Public figures like @TomCottonAR (Ep. 183); industry leaders like @anduriltech's @cdbrose (Ep. 259), @UNION_Prime's Will Sommerindyke (Ep. 216), serial CEO @DrJohnHillen (Ep. 195), and @WeAreHII's Eric Chewning (Ep. 172). Episodes covered everything from breaking news (e.g. Operation Midnight Hammer) to civilizational collapse in the Bronze Age to the nature of historical thinking itself. We hit 3 million total downloads. And this fall we finally switched to video (which takes a toll on my ability to multitask while recording!) It's hard to pick favorites, but here are my top 20 episodes from 2025, recommended for your holiday down-time:
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
Qatari negotiators flew to Tehran this morning to help facilitate the finalization of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire & lift the blockade of the Strait, a diplomat with knowledge tells me. A 60 day period of talks would follow. Trump also posted on social media that there was no timeline for dealing with the "nuclear dust" or highly enriched uranium in Iran but that it would be dealt with during a future period of calm. On Saturday, lead mediator Pakistan & President Trump both said that a signing was expected today.
Finalization of the MOU between the US & Iran is expected in the next 24 hours via electronic signing per Pakistan. It'll be followed by "technical level talks" next week.
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From Iranian media, so take with a grain of salt. But if true, these terms are comically bad for the United States. In effect, a surrender.
State-owned Mehr News Agency: "New details of a 14-point draft memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States have been released by a source close to the Iranian negotiating team. The details of this draft are as follows: 1. Immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. A commitment by the United States not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 3. Complete lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days. 4. A commitment by the United States to withdraw its forces from around Iran. 5. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. 6. Suspension of sanctions on oil and petrochemical product sales, and full Iranian access to its financial resources. 7. The necessity for the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran totaling at least $300 billion. 8. 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary and secondary sanctions imposed by the US, UN Security Council resolutions, and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions. 9. Reiteration of Iran's commitment under the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons. 10. During the negotiation period, the United States has committed not to increase its forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions. 11. Release of $24 billion of Iran's blocked funds during the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the start of negotiations. 12. Establishment of an oversight mechanism for the implementation of the agreement. 13. The final agreement will be affirmed by a UN Security Council resolution. 14. Final negotiations will not commence before the release of half of Iran's blocked funds ($24 billion), the suspension of Iranian oil sanctions, and the lifting of the maritime blockade. The final agreement will exclusively address the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, sanction relief, and a plan for Iran's economic reconstruction. Discussions regarding Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda."
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
BREAKING - US forces have shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones, U.S. official says. Seems Iran tried to strike commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic flow continues through the Strait, the official said.
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This is some weird looking stuff. Who thinks this is a good design?
An early look at the @GWOTMF memorial planned for Washington, D.C, released today. It's planned on what are now athletic fields at the corner of Henry Bacon Drive and Constitution Avenue, near the Lincoln Memorial and Vietnam Veterans Memorial.
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
Flagging this episode of @schoolofwarpod featuring @SabinHoward and @AaronBMacLean in hope that someone finds better inspiration for a design for this proposed GWOT Memorial. The unveiled modernist design isn’t cutting it IMO.
Today @SabinHoward’s remarkable, massive, deeply moving sculpture treating the American experience of WWI is unveiled as the centerpiece of DC’s new memorial to that war. On School of War, I interview Howard about war, art, and honoring our veterans. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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President Trump has posted that 100 Million barrels of oil are making its way through the Strait. This appears to be what is happening. ⚓️President Trump and @CENTCOM announced Project Freedom to escort ships through the Strait. The US evacuated two US ships but then curtailed the operation. ⚓️It appears that the US resumed the operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft and drones to escort ships through the southern part of the Strait, near the coast of Oman. ⚓️Iran has responded with targeting of some ships, these include HMM Namu and CMA CGM San Antonio. The US has responded with airstrikes against Iran. ⚓️ What has transpired is tankers, including Very Large Crude Carriers are exiting the Persian Gulf. Then, per @TankerTrackers, the VLCCs are conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to other tankers in the Gulf of Oman. ⚓️The empty tankers, which ran the Strait with their AIS, run back through the Strait to pick up a new load of oil from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar or Iraq. ⚓️The Apache helicopter that recently crashed was probably a part of this operation. ⚓️This explains why we have not seen an appreciable drop in the number of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf. By running the same ships, war risk insurance, potentially provided by the US through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) through a pool of approximately of $40 billion, could be covering these ships making the transits. ⚓️This would also explain the recent announcement by Kuwait to fix new contracts for its oil. ⚓️The question is how long is this sustainable and at what level is oil moving daily. With current pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this system would need to move approximately 12-14M barrels/day through the Strait. This analysis is based on open source material, but big shout out to @TankerTrackers @Kpler @MarineTraffic @LloydsList @gCaptain for their postings and research.
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
Trump is suddenly looking to restrain allies like Israel while accommodating Iran. It’s an approach that could end in disaster, writes Aaron MacLean. thefp.com/p/mr-president-don…
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
Earlier today, Trump sought to play down the incident. In a phone call with the WSJ, Trump said that it “wasn’t a big deal,” stressing that “the pilot is fine.” He said he had the details on the incident and that “it was much different than you think.” wsj.com/world/middle-east/ap…
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appears to suggest in a post on X that the downing of a U.S. Army AH-64E Apache yesterday over the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian drone was an accident, stating: “Foreign forces in proximity to our territory are at constant risk on account of their own human errors, plain accidents, or potentially being caught in crossfire.”
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👀
Enough is enough. President Trump and our Armed Forces decimated Iran militarily, but the Iranian regime has been trying to rebuild and now they've taken down an American Apache. Thank God the two American servicemembers are safe. President Trump is absolutely right. There is a pressing necessity for the U.S. to respond to this attack.
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We may never know the motive of that Iranian Shahed drone.
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
Israeli Air Force planes were on runways making final preparations for a third round of strikes against Iran on Monday morning before the White House intervened, Al-Monitor reported, citing diplomatic sources. The report said the planned operation was expected to be more significant than two earlier strikes carried out at 3 a.m. and 7 a.m. local time in Tel Aviv. Following a call from President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Omer Tishler that Israel could not undermine Trump's efforts to secure a deal with Iran, according to the report. "We're on the same page," Netanyahu was quoted as saying. "Let's give him a chance."
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The fact that the admin is leaking to Axios that they are not sure if the Iranian downing of the Apache was on purpose or accidental (?!) seems like a strong indicator that the president or some around him want to keep American retaliation limited.
A U.S. official told me the investigation determined that an Iranian drone hit the U.S. helicopter and got it to crash. The U.S. official said the investigation still hasn't determined if it was intentional or not
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
SERE school is gonna need some adaptations.
The unmanned surface vessel, a Saronic Corsair, located the Apache crew, who had spent two hours in the waters off the coast of Oman and brought them to shore wsj.com/world/middle-east/ap… @jmalsin @shelbyholliday
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
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The story about the drone rescue of these Apache pilots is fascinating and cool... but it is important to know why the helicopter went down, and if the Iranians did it. CENTCOM's careful language does not rule out that possibility.
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Aaron MacLean retweeted
Will be recording @schoolofwarpod with the extremely smart @therealBehnamBT in the morning, doing an after-action on the recent Iran-Israel exchange and what it tells us about changes in Iranian doctrine and strategy. Will have up later in the morning/asap—so no 5a ET drop.
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Despite Iran's demands, Israel continues to strike targets in southern Lebanon.
Lebanese media report Israeli strikes in the coastal city of Tyre, after the IDF issued an evacuation warning for the entire city and its outskirts.
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