CEO @FDD. Sanctioned by Iran and Russia. Annoyingly nonpartisan. Host of The Iran Breakdown. “A micro-niche celebrity but not your niche.”
Joined June 2009
- Tweets 106,539
- Following 6,613
- Followers 147,221
- Likes 57,665
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Jun 11
Sign the right deal, lift the sanctions, and the mullahs will trade revolution for legitimacy.
They won’t. Iran is not Venezuela. It’s a corrupt, theocratic, jihadist regime dedicated to death.
No lifelines. Squeeze the regime. Back the people.
My latest w/@FDD @miadmaleki
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IF President Trump can remove ALL of Iran’s enriched uranium within 30 days for only LIMITED sanctions relief, that would be a good accomplishment.
The catch, of course, is that “IF,” “ALL,” “30” and “LIMITED” are doing a lot of the work here.
Remember Iran accumulated most of the enriched material at 2, 3.67, 20, and 60% purity on Biden’s watch.
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X is full of self-appointed sanctions “experts” who literally know nothing.
Follow an actual expert — @FDD @miadmaleki
"Oil sanctions waiver" for Iran in the MOU is most likely the same General License that @USTreasury issued on March 20, 2026, a narrow authorization covering crude already loaded on vessels.
Here are some details:
1/4 Don't expect this authorization to open a new market for Iranian oil. Iran's buyers aren't switching. China accounts for roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, with independent "teapot" refineries in Shandong province absorbing the majority of that trade. These refiners already accept the sanctions risk. If anything, a temporary license gives them marginal cover — but once it lapses, they'll keep buying anyway. New Western buyers aren't coming, new Asian buyers highly unlikely.
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
An extremely reliable test of whether you're an honest, sane, & decent human being is whether you agree with this. If you don't, you're not.
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
To the people of Lebanon:
You deserve a future defined by opportunity, stability, and sovereignty - not by the ambitions of a foreign regime.
For too long, Hezbollah has dragged Lebanon into conflicts that do not serve the interests of the Lebanese people, while advancing Iran’s agenda at Lebanon’s expense.
A stronger, more prosperous Lebanon begins when its future is determined in Beirut - not Tehran.
🎥 @IsraelMFA
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
Raihaana Adira: I'm Muslim. The anti-Israel mob had no right to crash my McGill graduation
nationalpost.com/opinion/rai…
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Very funny. I remember my own party. It was fun. Got my first taste of scotch — from the guy in the robes who seemed nice.
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
"Oil sanctions waiver" for Iran in the MOU is most likely the same General License that @USTreasury issued on March 20, 2026, a narrow authorization covering crude already loaded on vessels.
Here are some details:
1/4 Don't expect this authorization to open a new market for Iranian oil. Iran's buyers aren't switching. China accounts for roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, with independent "teapot" refineries in Shandong province absorbing the majority of that trade. These refiners already accept the sanctions risk. If anything, a temporary license gives them marginal cover — but once it lapses, they'll keep buying anyway. New Western buyers aren't coming, new Asian buyers highly unlikely.
Jun 12
🚨 I just spoke with a senior White House official (whom I trust 100%):
He laughed at how everyone who correctly points out that the Iranian regime lies about everything is suddenly believing what it publishes about the MOU, and losing their minds over it.
He shared the actual details of the deal with me, which are VERY DIFFERENT from what the regime is claiming:
🔸 ZERO CASH released to the regime. Some of the frozen funds will be unfrozen for humanitarian purchases only, and every single purchase must be approved by the US. He emphasized that all the money in the MOU is tied to Iran's actual nuclear concessions, not just for talking ("pay for performance," not "pay to play").
🔸 ZERO ENRICHED MATERIAL: Unlike what is being claimed, the US stance is that ALL enriched uranium (including all 60%, 20%, and 3.67% enriched material) will be taken out of Iran or diluted to make it unusable.
🔸 The only sanctions relief is a temporary 60-day window on oil sales, which will snap back into place at the end of the 60 days if no deal is reached.
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The 2025-2026 strikes did what diplomacy couldn't: no operating enrichment plants in Iran for the first time since 2006. The next agreement must lock that in — full, verified dismantlement.
New interactive timeline from @StrickerNonpro and @mdubowitz ⬇️ fdd.org/analysis/2026/06/12/…
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As we await more on the Iran front:
Put aside your TDS.
Put aside your TMS — Trump Messiah Syndrome.
Be serious. Evaluate. Verify. Treat every claim with skepticism. Criticize where warranted. Acknowledge where positive.
And try not to use Iran as just another battlefield in your tribal political war.
I know I’m recommending the impossible for too many of you.
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A message to friends in the media and policy world: the regime in Iran has spent decades perfecting propaganda. Do your homework. Verify your sources. Don’t make claims you can’t substantiate.
You may not trust Trump or his administration. Fine. But don’t let that skepticism turn you into a conduit for regime disinformation unless your goal is to help the regime. You don’t want to be an unwitting member of the Iran Echo Chamber. Unless you do.
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A 38-day war and a 12-day war inflicted severe damage on Iran’s nuclear program, missile arsenal, military defenses, economy, leadership, and terror network.
Then came three months of “ceasefire”—with mounting economic pressure on Iran, but also valuable time for the regime to recover, rebuild and leverage Hormuz and Hezbollah.
Now add 60 more days of negotiations — an arena where Iran always outmaneuvers American presidents.
The question: who does this time favor? Will President Trump convert military successes into a real victory?
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This is undeniably true. But all the more reason President Trump must not squander the U.S. leverage he built by agreeing to a fatally-flawed negotiation process and deal.
Jun 12
Lost in the noise about deal terms, and the underappreciation of the current level of U.S. leverage, is the most important piece of context:
President Trump has achieved what 45 years of U.S. policy could not. The regime's military leadership is decimated, its economy is in freefall, and it is diplomatically isolated more than ever.
Just a couple years ago Iran was building drone manufacturing in the U.S. backyard, Venezuela.
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
"[Qatari's] are among the wealthiest people on earth. And they're spending that money, a lot of it, in America."
@CliffordDMay discusses Qatar's immense wealth and what it's being spent on.
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Decades of buildup. One year of strikes. See how Iran's nuclear enrichment program rose—and was dismantled — in @StrickerNonpro and @mdubowitz's new interactive timeline.
fdd.org/analysis/2026/06/12/…
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
Back to the Hezbollah “ceasefire” tracker - what did the last 48 hours look like?
💥 Over 50 rockets and killer drones fired at IDF troops.
💥 2 more barrages into Israeli territory, sending Israeli citizens to bomb shelters.
💥 Multiple encounters with Hezbollah terrorists moving back to the South Lebanon sector.
This is not what ceasing fire looks like. As long as Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel, like any other country, we will defend ourselves.
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
America must sanction the Muslim Brotherhood in all its iterations.
Qatar pretends to be our ally, but funds Al-Jazeera and its enormous following. Al-Jazeera's job is to delegitimize Western concepts of government -- liberty, democracy, equality -- and offer Islam as a better form of government, which is the Brotherhood's founding motto: Islam is the solution.
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
A Lebanese Christian who fled southern Lebanon has built a life in Israel while navigating identity, belonging, and a Hezbollah-shaped displacement experience.
jpost.com/middle-east/articl…
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Mark Dubowitz retweeted
True observation. They were lying all along, and their fictional narrative is disintegrating.
This is a really good point. As the confirmation of combatant deaths in Gaza continues to rise, as the fantasy academic papers about 100s of 1000s of dead get proved wrong, as S Africa beg for more ICJ time, their genocide narrative falls apart, so they must escalate.
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That’s pretty funny. Well played @glcarlstrom
Amazing if four months of war comes to an end with J.D. Vance getting an email "Please DocuSign these documents: IranUSA_MOU_Final_FINAL_ActuallyFinal_V43"
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See our interactive to understand: most of Iran’s nuclear expansion occurred under the Biden administration, the patient pathways to nuclear weapons under the sunsetting Obama deal, and how U.S. and Israeli strikes have done severe damage to Iran’s enrichment program.👇
📈 NEW interactive from @StrickerNonpro and @mdubowitz: Track Iran's nuclear enrichment from the late 1990s through the 2025-2026 strikes that destroyed most of Tehran's program.
See how stockpiles grew across 4 administrations — and what the JCPOA would have allowed. fdd.org/analysis/2026/06/12/…
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