newsletter writer. alt investments, geopolitics

Joined March 2013
411 Photos and videos
Adam retweeted
Dude they have literal anti-Asmongold divisions in China
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Adam retweeted
Ilia Topuria already celebrated a win over Gaethje last night with all his friends and family 🗣️ “Tomorrow, it’s not a victory we have to earn. Victory is already ours.” Oleksandr Usyk was there 👀
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Adam retweeted
Ilia Topuria ficou desolado com a derrota para Justin Gaethje, pelo cinturão do peso-leve do UFC. #ESPNKnockOut #UFC #IliaTopuria
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Jun 15
😬👀 Ilia Topuria trains his eyes and their focus showing his scientific approach: "Glasses let us see how the left eye and the right eye work, and most of all see how both work in sync. What we are doing is a cognitive exercise in which he has to select the numbers from 1 to 50 while also working om accommodation and binocular vision." 🎥 @Topuriailia
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Jun 13
An after hours classic. Has potential to kill AI enthusiasm, rightly so. Trump team should back down on this one. Gov control of models will be horrific.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Adam retweeted
Both Anthropic and OpenAI mention the possibilities of slowing AI development in their latest "what comes next" in AI posts, but say they need to be an action coordinated across the entire world using as-yet-unidentified methods.
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Adam retweeted
This is the silent limiter on Claude Fable 5. Fable 5 may not give you its full strength when you use it to build or improve frontier AI models — especially work that helps train, scale, copy, or optimize a powerful Claude/GPT-class model. Anthropic says in these cases Fable 5 may not visibly refuse or switch models, but may quietly reduce its own effectiveness through hidden safeguards like prompt modification, steering vectors, or PEFT. As a paying user, that matters: the model can still sound helpful while being intentionally less capable in a narrow but important category of work. i.e. you may not get Fable 5’s best ability: - Building a large-model pretraining pipeline. - Designing data pipelines for training a frontier LLM. - Planning distributed training across huge GPU clusters. - Debugging or optimizing model-parallel training systems. - Designing infrastructure for large-scale pretraining runs. - Working on ML accelerator or AI-chip design. - Trying to distill or copy a frontier model. - Asking how to make a competing frontier model stronger, cheaper, or faster.
Anthropic finally released Claude Fable 5, a public Mythos-class model. Fable 5 and Mythos 5 share one underlying model, but Fable adds classifier gates for everyone while Mythos lifts some gates for vetted cyber and infrastructure partners. i.e. the public version is wrapped in classifier gates that detect sensitive cyber, biology, chemistry, and model-copying requests. When those gates trigger, the user does not get a normal refusal; the request is handed to Opus 4.8, which means Anthropic is using model fallback as a control system. Anthropic says the leap is longer-range autonomy: a 50M-line Ruby migration in 1 day, screenshot-to-code work, has a 1M-token context window, That is the crucial shift: the product is no longer just a model, but a routing machine that decides which level of intelligence a user is allowed to touch for each request. The limit is that this routing is not arbitrary and not for every subject; Anthropic says the fallback is triggered by a narrow set of topics and appears in less than 5% of sessions on average.
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Adam retweeted
This is a super exciting release - Claude Fable 5 is the same underlying model as Mythos but with added safeguards. The benchmarks are great and it's SOTA on everything by a margin but I'll add that *qualitatively* also, this is a major-version-bump-deserving step change forward (imo of the same order as Claude 4.5 was in November), peaking especially for long problem-solving sessions on very difficult problems. You can give it a lot more ambitious tasks than what you're used to, the model "gets it" and it will just go, and it's never felt this tempting to stop looking at the code at all (but don't do this in prod!). The model still has quirks that people will run into and the safeguards are configured to be a little too trigger happy for launch, which can hopefully be tuned over time. I feel a lot of things changing as working software increasingly comes out on a tap. The Jevon's paradox kicks in and I feel my own demand for software growing substantially. You can ask for anything - explainers, visualizers, dashboards, bespoke single-use apps (e.g. a full wandb that is hyper-specific just for your project), you can 10X your test suite, auto-optimize code, run giant research projects with custom HTML for the results, anything! "Free your mind" (Matrix ref). Really looking forward to all the things people build!
Replying to @claudeai
Fable 5 is state-of-the-art on nearly all tested benchmarks, with exceptional performance in software engineering, knowledge work, scientific research, and vision. The longer and more complex the task, the larger Fable 5’s lead over our other models.
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Adam retweeted
As someone who partially grew up among European elite kids like him, this reminds me just how incredibly hollow some of them are. For a quick background, I went to one of the poshest high schools in France (Janson de Sailly, for those who know) and, afterwards, to what was at the time - and probably still is - the most expensive undergraduate school in Europe (EHL in Lausanne, Switzerland). Needless to say, many of my classmates were from unbelievably privileged backgrounds. Just in my classroom in Lausanne I had the son of a (very famous) Russian oligarch, the son of Italy's largest real estate developer and the son of Spain's largest real estate developer (funnily, the latter two were flat mates). Another classmate of mine came from the richest family in Naples, Italy and - while we were at school - his father (known in Naples under the nickname "Il Sultano") got arrested for having bribed half of Naples's city council - which, if you know Naples, ought to tell you something. These were the kids I was doing group projects on business ethics with (literally) 😅 Anyhow, my story, and probably my luck, was that - before going to high school in Paris - I was raised in very normal public schools in the South of France where my friends were anything but wealthy. Their parents were farmers and everyday workers. Which means - and I'd come to realize this was very important in life - that it was easy for me to understand how big a mistake it is to see money as identity and meaning - and to confuse someone's net worth with their actual worth. What really struck me at the time was the contrast with my "poor" classmates of earlier in my life. They couldn't define themselves by what they had - by definition - and this forced them to reach deeper for their identity: their skills, knowledge, humor, etc. Rich kids can skip that entire process, and the tragedy is that most of them do: they reach for the readymade identity that money provides. I remember being incredibly frustrated by many of my classmates, like "ok, I get it, your dad is rich and you own a lot of nice things but who are YOU, what else is there?" The answer, more often than not, was nothing. To be fair, there were exceptions. One of my classmates I was most impressed by came from one of Zurich's wealthiest families (which, if you know Zurich, means insanely wealthy) yet he was almost OCD in not showing he had money: driving the shittiest car imaginable, living in a small studio, etc. He was very intellectual, very contrarian, and clearly at war with the idea that his family's wealth ought to define who he was. I only discovered who he actually was when I started my first company and he approached me to invest: to discuss the investment I went to one of his family homes, which it turned out was a literal palatial castle on the shores of Geneva lake. The guy had decided to live in a small rundown studio when he literally had a castle sitting empty a 5-min drive away. THAT I was impressed by: it's easy to see that money isn't meaning when you don't have any. To see it when you have more than almost anyone - when everyone around you is organized around the opposite assumption - is much harder. But to actually live it, to choose the studio when you have the castle keys in your pockets - with no audience to applaud you for that - that shows real depth. At the end of the day, I think, the real distinction isn't between rich and poor but between people who exist from the inside out and people who exist from the outside in. Wealth just happens to make it incredibly easy to be the latter, to skip the work of becoming someone and settle for a borrowed identity that glitters from the outside but is hollow all the way through. A Potemkin village identity. This is actually a real societal issue, and magnified by social media (with idiotic posts like this one 👇): the more "outside in" folks out there, the less people with genuine internal anchors, the more fragile everything becomes. When you think about it, everything that genuinely matters in a society is built by people who think for themselves: they take the world in, pass it through something genuinely their own, and give back something that didn't exist before: an idea, a conviction, a stand. Every reform, every invention, every act of moral courage in history came from someone with an internal anchor strong enough to resist the current. Remove those people and all you have left is the current. This isn't new, by the way. Most ancient traditions warn against exactly this, from the Bible (the golden calf story) to Confucius, who built his entire ethics around the distinction between the exemplary person (the Junzi, 君子) - oriented around internal cultivation and righteousness - and the petty person (Xiaoren, 小人), oriented around profit and gain. The junzi builds himself from the inside, the xiaoren chases what's outside. So please, do not make the mistake of being impressed by wealthy people flaunting their wealth. Don't focus on the glitter, focus on the hollowness it's trying to hide.
16yo billionaire kid in Monaco. $100,000,000 secrete car garage. People don’t pay income taxes in Monaco?
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Adam retweeted
Also Apollo: we have 250bn in AI private credit
Apollo’s Chief Economist: Zero Evidence of AI-Related Job Losses
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Adam retweeted
Footage of the FP-1/2 drone strike on frigate Admiral Essen, project 11356, at Novorossiysk naval base, May 23.
Frigate Admiral Essen, reported hit by Ukraine's @usf_army drones today, in the frame of a Ukrainian drone.
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Adam retweeted
…full stop…. HTF did he still owe $25K on a 2019 Yukon?
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Adam retweeted
Dermatology is wrong about the sun. And it's killing people. I'm a dermatologist. 226 publications. I should know. Avoiding the sun increases the risk of dying as much as being a smoker. We can fix it. For decades, dermatology's message has been simple: avoid the sun. Wear sunscreen. Seek shade. UV causes skin cancer. End of discussion. That message is incomplete and outdated. People are dying because of it. Lots of people. The evidence has gotten strong enough that the field needs to update it.🧵
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Adam retweeted
WATCH: A paraglider was hit by a Cessna 172 near Zell am See, Austria, on Saturday but deployed her emergency parachute and landed safely. The plane pilot also landed safely after the midair collision.

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Adam retweeted
Concerning.
Gonna try to explain this to tech CEOs again: Young Americans are pissed. They feel betrayed. Half have embraced the far right & want to cut off your access to cheap foreign labor. The other half have embraced the far left & want to cut off your head. One side will win. Choose.
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Iran war: greatest hits from the last 12 weeks
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May 23
I have a good sized position in Abaxx $ABXXF and plan to hold it for 10 years. It's not often a new commodities exchange comes along. Especially one focused on physical deliverabiliry, secure decentralized ID, real world tokenization, fast settlement. In short: better tech. They just uplisted to Toronto, and I expect a Nasdaq uplist soonish. Great founder/CEO - Josh Crumb. Jeff Currie on board as co-Chairman. Strong core of investors. Great risk/reward. Strong early traction, mostly on gold kilobar contract (Singapore). Just launched 1,000oz .9999 silver.
You can’t print molecules (or atoms or joules). $Abaxx is a physically settled commodities exchange that will drive true price discovery and the flow of commodities globally. As the picks and shovels play of the most asymmetric trade in financial history, $ABXX has exponential volume growth and a game-changing technology that can enable tokenization of real world assets. The Abaxx Exchange has been setting new trading volume records, highlighted by its first 50k contract day. The 50k volume level positions ABAXX as an emerging global benchmark exchange while signalling that operating breakeven economics are within reach. Additionally, $ABXX will be uplisted to the Toronto Stock Exchange this Thursday, opening up potential index inclusion in the weeks or months ahead driving more liquidity and lower cost of capital. Volumes were primarily driven by the Singapore #Gold Kilobar (SGK) & our emerging flagship #LNG (GOM, NPA) benchmarks. CEO Josh Crumb and I will be on an ATB client call this Thursday at 11am ET. Please contact your ATB representative for details.
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Adam retweeted
You can’t print molecules (or atoms or joules). $Abaxx is a physically settled commodities exchange that will drive true price discovery and the flow of commodities globally. As the picks and shovels play of the most asymmetric trade in financial history, $ABXX has exponential volume growth and a game-changing technology that can enable tokenization of real world assets. The Abaxx Exchange has been setting new trading volume records, highlighted by its first 50k contract day. The 50k volume level positions ABAXX as an emerging global benchmark exchange while signalling that operating breakeven economics are within reach. Additionally, $ABXX will be uplisted to the Toronto Stock Exchange this Thursday, opening up potential index inclusion in the weeks or months ahead driving more liquidity and lower cost of capital. Volumes were primarily driven by the Singapore #Gold Kilobar (SGK) & our emerging flagship #LNG (GOM, NPA) benchmarks. CEO Josh Crumb and I will be on an ATB client call this Thursday at 11am ET. Please contact your ATB representative for details.
Abaxx Exchange single-day trading volume surpasses 50,000 contracts, led by Gold Singapore futures, and surpassing the previous single-day record set on April 9, 2026. Read Release abaxx.exchange/newsroom/pres…
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Adam retweeted
🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products. My Take The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested. This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown. Hedgie🤗
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