Bitcoin will make a price bottom when the S&P 500 vs. U.S. M2 fractal starts moving sideways.
Based on my estimates, this will happen around September to October of this year.
And here is the point:
The global economy has changed a lot in recent years, and one of the direct impacts of this was caused by artificial intelligence companies.
The crypto market was no different. Part of people’s attention migrated to AI, new ways of working, and new types of content for content creators.
The crypto and Web3 market felt this impact, as data shows that fewer investments have gone into Web3 since 2023, while attention and new money moved toward AI.
But I am very confident that all this liquidity from the supposed “AI bubble” will eventually migrate to emerging economies and risk assets, and Bitcoin fits exactly into that category.
So I am leaving my opinion here: maybe the next bullish cycle in the crypto market will be completely decoupled from TradFi.
Think about it with me: where will the big profits from ETFs and major crypto players go?
Most likely, they are preparing their wallets and infrastructure for a cycle of liquidity rotation from markets that are rising into markets that are still down, and one of those markets is crypto.
While many people are crying and feeling discouraged, I am here saying that we could potentially see better days for the crypto universe, even if the empire of major economies like the U.S. is already economically deteriorating.
This is how the biggest players operate: moving money between sectors and orchestrating everything, including the narrative, in their favor.
I could be completely wrong and miss this call, but I am leaving here an opinion that nobody is talking about.
So when hope seems completely exhausted in the crypto market, that is where the best opportunities will appear. And I will probably be here to remind everyone.
Those who follow us know that, at the end of 2022, I was already believing in a bullish move, while many were still skeptical and afraid.
S&P 500 / M2 is repeating the dot-com fractal.
Not a coincidence. It's structure.
Dividing S&P 500 by M2 removes monetary noise and reveals the market in real liquidity terms.
The 2000 peak and the 2026 peak are nearly identical on this metric. Same extension. Same momentum. Same denial at the top.
The market didn't change. The narrative did.
In 1999 it was "the internet changes everything."
In 2026 it's "AI changes everything."
Both statements are true. The valuations are not.
The dot-com bubble didn't burst because the technology failed. It burst because expectations drifted too far from reality. Speculation assigned a weight that fundamentals couldn't support.
Same structure. Same behavior. Different story.
The chart projects a return to the 0.382 Fibonacci level as the first real support, a zone that aligned with the 2002~2003 lows in the previous structure.
Below that, 2009 marked the definitive bottom of the S&P 500 / M2 crash. Coincidentally, that's when Bitcoin was born.
Global liquidity will determine the speed. Not the direction.
The question is not whether this is a bubble. It's where in the cycle we are.
History doesn't repeat.
It rhymes.