Partner @sequoia. Working w/ founders from idea to IPO & beyond: @airbnb @doordash @citsecurities @kalshi @clay @foundforbiz @Nominal_io @zipline

Joined March 2008
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I was born after the space race, so I can only imagine what it felt like to live through it. The technological achievements were extraordinary, but perhaps more important was what they did to our collective imagination. They made people believe the impossible was possible. Congrats to everyone at @SpaceX who kept building and believing despite the odds. Your impact on space exploration is immense. Your impact on helping the rest of us dream bigger may be even greater. Ad astra.
Ad Astra @elonmusk and @SpaceX 🫡🚀
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Alfred Lin retweeted
I believe that @SpaceX is the most important company ever It transcends the scope of a traditional company It will open up the Stars Elon had the vision And then the team pushed through limitless pain to get where they are Which is just the beginning

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"That's what SpaceX is all about. It's to take the fiction out of science fiction, and create an exciting and inspiring future for everyone."
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Alfred Lin retweeted
Jun 11
Today, we're shipping Ask DoorDash, an ordering agent that makes the @DoorDash app easier to use and discover new places. My favorite use cases include asking the assistant to reorder my usual for office lunches and family nights, prompting it to find me new restaurants similar to what I typically order, and building our family's weekly grocery in a couple of minutes by just talking to it and sharing a few recipes we found online. There's 800K items across the DoorDash catalog, and it's been a treat to use the assistant to discover so many new places and just how many things are literally in our backyard!
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.@MiddeskHQ is pairing up with @Kalshi to power prediction markets around business formation. Business formation is a leading indicator about where the economy is headed - new companies account for two-thirds of all job creation, and small businesses make up 44% of US GDP. NYC business formation is just the start.
Is @NYCMayor good or bad for business? New York business formations just hit an all-time high in March. Every policy out of City Hall now moves a live market, and you can trade it on @Kalshi. Kalshi chose @MiddeskHQ as its official real-time settlement source for business formation. We’ll be keeping a real-time read on the state of the business economy. kalshi.com/markets/kxnycorp/…
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Fun fact: the person who named and popularized the Pareto Principle later admitted it wasn’t really Pareto’s principle. Vilfredo Pareto observed in 1896 that ~80% of the land in Italy was owned by ~20% of the population, as a commentary on wealth distribution. Joseph Juran, a management consultant, turned it into a general theory in the 1940s and named it after Pareto. But even Juran had intended a narrow use of the principle, focused on quality control and which defects or failure causes were worth fixing first. Juran later published “The Non-Pareto Principle; Mea Culpa,” saying that the universalization was his insight, naming it after Pareto was wrong, and the “do less, get more” it had evolved into similarly mischaracterized his own intent. The lesson isn't just to avoid over-relying on the modernized 80/20 rule. It’s also to remember that many famous “principles” are far less settled than their names suggest. Do your homework, and care about the nuance. (Photo is of Pareto and Juran)
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Alfred Lin retweeted
Jensen Huang is a titan and a teacher. He recently sat down with me to explain his vision of the future of technology and humanity. He’s calm, clear, and very funny. We touched on many topics, ranging from the $20T or more AI economy in five layers to changes in labor for the AI age. Here are some of my main takeaways: 1) The world is moving from retrieval to generation 2) Generation offers intelligence customized to the individual 3) Nvidia is making the "generators" of intelligence 4) We've seen this kind of revolution at least three times before with energy (Generators), Telecommunications (vacuum tubes / transistors?), and now intelligence (GPUs) 5) There is a five-layer cake of participation in this many-many trillion dollar revolution: Energy, Chips, Infra, Models, and Applications. 6) There are many ways to participate in this revolution, and everyone has a role 7) We'll be pushed to dream up new problems to solve with this unprecedented intelligence 8) In this new future, it's not just having the answer, it's having the right questions 8) The right questions will drive us toward our individual and collective human purpose 9) We move from the carpenters to the architects I believe this is the realistic future. Thanks to Jensen and the entire @nvidia team for the conversation and for letting us share! 00:00 Introduction 00:42 From Chatbots to Generative AI 03:35 Agentic AI That Does Work 05:26 Downstream Industry Impact 06:25 Computing Shifts From Retrieval to Generation 11:26 A Planet Cocooned by Intelligence 14:27 Inside the NVIDIA AI Factory 20:48 AI Five Layer Cake 21:58 Beyond Chatbots to Biology 23:54 Tokens and World Models 24:53 Trillions in Applications 27:13 Ditch the AI Doom 31:32 Jobs Tasks vs Purpose 38:40 Closing the Tech Divide
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Alfred Lin retweeted
Actually, $1b in 24h volume 😉
Took 1 week for Kalshi Perps to get to $1B, and we haven't even launched publicly yet Prediction markets took 3.5 years to get to $1B
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Joe Lonsdale shared the following with Palantir back in 2010, as part of key lessons from Peter Thiel. It hits at the root of why the last 10% (and 0.01%) matters. -- Obsess over perfection "If you are designing something that a customer is going to use or that will represent us in public, it’s not good enough unless it’s flawless and extraordinary. Especially in software, many situations have winner-take-all dynamics due to network effects and switching costs. Being the winner means being in the 99.99-percentile. A winner at the top takes nearly everything, and only a pittance goes to the others — so being 99.99-percentile is worth an order of magnitude or two more than being just 98-percentile. If it’s 1am and you’ve already got something that is very good, this is why it’s worth spending the next couple of hours to make it amazing."
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"So, we may ask two things of any kind of work. Is its correctness private and expensive to establish, the kind of truth that exists only inside someone's data? And is it walled off, locked inside a system you can't get into? Set those against how saturated the task is, and you get a 2x2. Saturated work with public answers is commodity tokens, and open models own it. Frontier work with public answers, where coding benchmarks live, is where the labs win, because when the eval is free, owning it counts for nothing. The prize is the last corner, the untrainable one: frontier work whose correctness exists only in private. You can see it in the inference clouds hosting the AI-native pioneers, where the vast majority of tokens are generated by custom models, not generic open ones."
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Any founder dissuaded by an investor saying "Apple/Google will do this" or now "the labs will do this" should also introspect on their level of commitment to the idea. That said, if you're directly in their tracks, ensure that (1) the market is big enough for more than one company to win in, and (2) your velocity advantage outpaces their distribution advantage.
"What if the model companies do this?" is the new "What if Google does this?" I.e. the meaningless question investors ask that shows either that they're stupid or that they dislike you and are looking for ways to find fault.
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The best founders know that final 1% is what truly matters, and will stop at nothing to get it. -- "You would think that in a world where AI does more of the building, who you stand next to matters less. It is the opposite. The danger of 99% is that from inside it, it feels like totality. The dim sky looks bright enough when your eyes have adjusted to it. The only reliable way to find out you are in twilight is to stand next to someone who has been in the dark: a builder whose work actually flips, whose artifacts go all the way across. Proximity to the real thing recalibrates your eyes. It kicks you out of the local maximum you didn't know you were sitting in, because suddenly you can see the gap between your 99 and their 100, and you can't unsee it."
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Alfred Lin retweeted
the non-tech public needs to be presented: - the benefits of AI (products, services and outcomes) - the ability to participate - the requirements (natsec, competitiveness) - mitigated concerns (jobs, energy cost) everyone has a real shot to participate in the new economy!
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Fifteen years ago, the most valuable companies in the world were worth $300b to $400b . Today, several are worth $4t to $5t . The distance between planting a seed of an idea and building something truly legendary has grown by more than 10x. There is no reason to think the trajectory will slow. Meanwhile, the average human lifespan has barely moved. We have roughly the same number of moments, chapters, and pages as our predecessors did. To build something legendary, we now have to cover more than 10x the distance in that same fixed time, and in the next 15 years, we might have to cover an additional 10x the distance. If the game has gotten harder, the question is not how to work more hours. The question is which moments, chapters, and books are worth writing at all. Every choice to work on one thing is a choice not to work on something else. The opportunity cost of our attention has never been higher.
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Quiet but important milestone.
Welp, that happened faster than I predicted. Thought it would be end of 2027, then early 2027, but agentic traffic growing so fast that bots have now passed human traffic online for the first time in the Internet's history. radar.cloudflare.com/traffic…
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This quote from Steve Jobs has always resonated with me. An important reminder as we write the chapters of our life's book. "Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma, which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary."
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Routing the right model to the right task is exactly the kind of unglamorous, high-leverage work that compounds. Factory is helping make this the default, not a tradeoff. Great to see @matanSF and the Factory team help builders optimize for both quality and cost.
Introducing model routing to Factory. Factory Router picks the right model for every task, automatically. Maintain frontier performance while cutting costs by 25%.
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