"So, we may ask two things of any kind of work. Is its correctness private and expensive to establish, the kind of truth that exists only inside someone's data? And is it walled off, locked inside a system you can't get into? Set those against how saturated the task is, and you get a 2x2. Saturated work with public answers is commodity tokens, and open models own it. Frontier work with public answers, where coding benchmarks live, is where the labs win, because when the eval is free, owning it counts for nothing. The prize is the last corner, the untrainable one: frontier work whose correctness exists only in private. You can see it in the inference clouds hosting the AI-native pioneers, where the vast majority of tokens are generated by custom models, not generic open ones."