"Climate Change Researcher @ UQ 🇦🇺 | Educator & Analyst writing on global geopolitics for Dawn, TFT, NayaDaur & Medium | ZAB | RTs ≠Endorsement"
Joined October 2009
- Tweets 16,953
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- Followers 1,117
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3,335 Photos and videos
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Apr 11
If you are hoping #IslamabadTalks between #US #Iran will produce a handshake, a signed #Islamabadaccord, or a sudden thaw in four decades of frozen enmity, you are betting on a two percent chance.
The Monte Carlo simulation ( approx after 50,000 cycles ) provides a disciplined, quantitative reality check.
First of all consider #Islamabadtalks a high-stakes exercise in probability management, not peacemaking. The most likely script is prolonged, with persistent nerve-wracking ambiguity.
The second most likely is a dangerous unraveling. The chance of a genuine, lasting agreement is vanishingly small.
From all perspectives alike, the message is clear: hope for the 12% partial deal that keeps oil flowing through #StraitofHormuz and guns silent across all fronts at least for couple of more months. ( Best possible outcome to label Islamabad Peace talks successful to avoid collapse)
Prepare for the 21% chance that the fragile scaffolding collapses ( due to unexpected external shock, in next 24 hours , stemming out of an outlier/ spoiler), not currently under control).
But do not hold your breath for the two percent miracle that' s ( everyone lives on happily hereafter #Islamabadtaljs). The numbers simply do not support it, though. Yet, also recognise this:
"even limbo, when managed carefully, is preferable to the abyss"
The Islamabad calculus is not about winning. It is about not losing.
Decode by @Alluring_Will
#IranWar‌ #USA #Israel #hezbollah
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Jun 12
While the Govt presents an optimistic, IMF-aligned #Budget2026," the real work of dissecting tax targets, questioning regressive levies on the salaried class, and holding the FBR accountable falls squarely onto the shoulders of #NaveedQamar
Read on Medium: medium.com/@khurambukhari/th…
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May 10
#TamilNadu @TVKVijayHQ Oath Taking Ceremony surpasses all recent oath taking ceremonies of various CM in different states of India #CMVijay
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Read “The Raj Bhavan as a Political Weapon: How the #Governor Is Stalling #TamilNadu’s Mandate for the #BJP“ by Khuram Bukhari on Medium: #TVKVijay‌HQ medium.com/@khurambukhari/th…
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Despite some initial challenges, Vijay’s path to becoming the CM of #TamilNadu is looking highly likely While the floor test remain the ultimate battlefield, the current alignment of key signals public announcements and party talks—points strongly toward #Vijay taking the oath.
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Apr 25
#Pakistan is no longer "approaching" a climate crisis; we are entering its tipping point. ​As we move toward the summer, the convergence of a #SuperElNiño, intensified Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, and rapid glacial melting creates a perfect storm.
ALT Based on best practices for accessibility, here is an extended alt text description of the infographic: An intricately detailed infographic titled "PAKISTAN: EXTENDED CLIMATE ANALYSIS & IMPLICATIONS (2026)," with visualization credited to DECODE BY KHURAM BUKHARI. The graphic is organized into five main panels analyzing climate drivers, projected manifests, sector vulnerabilities, estimated consequences, and policy implications. The top-left panel, **CLIMATIC DRIVERS (ANTECEDENTS)**, features global maps illustrating factors influencing Pakistan's climate: a "Super El Niño" over the Pacific Ocean, High Pressure Systems over South Asia, Indian Ocean Warming, Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects raising local temperatures by 4-7°C, and general Anthropogenic Global Warming. Arrows show connections to the region. The top-center panel shows a central heat map of Pakistan titled **PROJECTED TEMPERATURES & MANIFESTATIONS (MAY-JUNE 2026)**. Boxes around the map detail regional threats and probabili
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Apr 25
We are looking at a "Very High" (>80%) probability of mass-casualty heatwaves in Sindh and #Punjab, alongside a "High" (60-75%) probability of catastrophic GLOF events in the north. This is not a distant forecast. It is a fundamental shift asking for #ActonClimate now
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Apr 25
#Pakistan is not simply experiencing another hot summer. A convergence of climate drivers is pushing the country toward a compound emergency, and provincial governments are running out of time to prepare @MaryamNSharif @ndmapk @ClimateChangePK
Read more.. medium.com/@khurambukhari/wh…
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Apr 25
#Trump’s #Iran Endgame, Three Poisonous Paths, No Good Options. Decoded by @Alluring_Will analysis of strategic choices facing the U.S. regarding the May 1 War Powers Resolution (#WPR) deadline.
Read more medium.com/@khurambukhari/th…
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Apr 25
#Trump’s #Iran Endgame, Three Poisonous Paths, No Good Options. Decoded by @Alluring_Will analysis of strategic choices facing the U.S. regarding the May 1 War Powers Resolution (#WPR) deadline.
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Apr 25
First : INHERENT SELF-DEFENSE GAMBIT AND FULL ESCALATION :
I) Article II Self-Defense Claim.
II) ​Public Skepticism over $100 Oil and $4 Gas.
III) ​Retaliatory Strikes on U.S. Bases.
IV) ​Full-Scale War before Midterms.
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Apr 25
PATH 2: CONGRESSIONAL RECKONING AND FORCED WITHDRAWAL." It features the U.S. Capitol, gavels, and stylized political figures representing specific Senators. PATH 3: THE CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS." Shows broken columns, a dark green landscape, and a dark black hole
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Apr 24
#Israel has right to defend itself from #Truth about #GazaGenocide, #Lebanon Invasion, Syrian Invasion, Illegal Settlements, Jouranalist Killing, Mass Prisonor Hanging, #MinabSchool, UN Health Workers' Murder and truth about many more
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Apr 21
Suggest @TruthTrumpPost form a board of Hormuz similar to peace board , GCC members to contribute 1$ Billion each, while 0.5bn dollar to be contributed by each member country from west, south east, and pacific. Building on BOG model, jointly regulate hormuz. Toll 2 add endowment
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Apr 20
To fight #IranWar‌ most dangerous weapon is a man,in the #WhiteHouse scrolling through #Trump #TruthSocial feed in the dark, desperately looking for someone to hit next to mask his own private panic
#StraitofHormuz Read
"The 2:00 A.M. Commander-in-Chief“
medium.com/@khurambukhari/th…
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Apr 21
Nocturnal Commander in Chief on Truth social mostly around 2am
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Apr 20
From 'Low Energy' soup to full-blown global panic. The Short-Order Commander is in the kitchen, and 'The Art of the Meal' is serving up chaos. 🧑‍🍳🔥 #DonaldTrump #IranWar‌
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Apr 20
When the situation room turned to the kitchen for live coverage on Fox News and Truth Social
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Apr 20
#UnitedStates & #Iran do not share a common definition of what the ceasefire covers, what compliance entails, or what the end-state should be. Without that shared understanding, ceasefires function as tactical pauses that inevitably collapse, #StraitofHormuz
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