TSLA investor, After IPO 2010–present. SPCX investor, IPO - present. B787 FO. If there isn’t a blue check—it isn’t me.
Joined September 2017
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TESLA AFTER A SPACEX IPO
Many analysts assume a static pie — i.e. a scarcity mindset. They think a SpaceX IPO hurts Tesla longterm by splitting Elon’s (and investors’) attention. They somehow forgot that Elon Musk built both Tesla & SpaceX simultaneously to trillion-plus valuations. Tesla has always been volatile, a SpaceX IPO is just this week’s excuse. Traders make money from volatility.
These analysts are ALREADY WRONG. Within 3 months of AJ’s doomsday 2/25 analysis, Tesla & SpaceX are deepening a mutually beneficial partnership. This isn’t a zero-sum game. Instead of each company remaining on a trajectory to be an $8 Trillion company, Elon Musk leveled up to a new 100 Trillion market cap goal.
Instead of competition between Musk companies and divided loyalty, Elon Musk has tasked Tesla/SpaceX/xAI with one audacious mission: remove the constraint of Earth and its limited resources by kick-starting a true Space Economy flywheel. Digital Optimus, the Terafab and AI Space Compute are just the start. A SpaceX IPO primes the flywheel with initial operating cash.
This is the biggest undertaking in human history — an investment opportunity that could exceed today’s Earth economy by 10x, 100x, or even 100,000x. What’s the actual limit once humanity goes galactic?
The “Elon Musk community” doesn’t split — it gets stronger as the mission converges.
🧵 Next, don’t ignore the early signals & kick yourself later
Given that I have built two companies in widely different fields to trillion dollar plus valuations simultaneously, I am might be getting a few things right once in a while
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Watch frame by frame. FSD responds instantly, even before the vehicle ahead.
FSD might have just saved me from a head on collision.
My Tesla was taking evasive action before I even saw the danger.
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I agree with Alexandra.
Never go full Ross Gerber. Rebellionaire has lost the plot. IE They now create the FUD - rather dispel it.
The inconvenient truth that contradicts Rebellionaire’s fear peddling:
♦️Volatility is the price of admission to investing in an Elon Musk company. You don’t get a participation trophy for it.
♦️A Merger creates vastly greater upside than the RoboTaxi alone, or Optimus. The three joint ventures are the hint of what is possible. A negotiated share exchange ratio would contain credit for Optimus and RoboTaxi projected revenues. You don’t “lose it”. And your investment dollars remain the same.
♦️Dilution IS coming either way. AI, compute, chip manufacturing require massive amounts of Capital. So choose your Dilution: Vote No on a merger (SpaceXAI just raised Capital on favorable terms) and the Tesla board likely immediately approves a share issuance - and they don’t need your vote for that. Dilution is not bad when it funds growth. Dilution preceded prior Tesla rerates because it funded the growth infrastructure. Prior Tesla capital raises 👇
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I can’t believe Elon’s net worth just skyrocketed to 28 miles of unfinished CA high speed rail
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Same
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Within ~5 years, probably ~5 times as many satellites as rest of world
Jun 12
They did it.
SpaceX has now launched more satellites than the rest of humanity, combined, all time.
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🤣
Jun 13
Anthropic: our models are way way better than OpenAI's. They're so good. Somebody should really stop us.
Also Anthropic: no really, we pinkie promise, OpenAI's models are just as dangerous as ours. Uh, no, um, we mean, ours are basically totally harmless just like theirs.
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Jun 12
First public podcast rough cut. @VladSaigau and I walk through the FULL color commentary on the SpaceX gigamodel. Lots of tidbits you wouldn’t get from just reading.
If you’re a new SpaceX investor welcome! Also, take time to watch this to get a sense of what the future could look like.
Jun 12
5,000 simulations. 350 assumptions. One model for what SpaceX is worth.
The Mach 33 team walks through its full SpaceX valuation framework ahead of the IPO, from Starlink's cash engine to the orbital compute opportunity.
Full episode below.
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Jun 12
Saving LA - Phase III
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Jun 10
Radiation works better in orbit because the sink is deep space, not a warm room. Your room radiates heat back at the panel, so it keeps roughly half. Deep space radiates almost nothing back, so the same panel rejects about twice the heat. Plus run the hardware hotter, like chips are increasingly designed to, and you can quickly boost efficiency because radiated heat scales ^4 with temperature. A small bump in operating temperature is a big bump in heat shed.
Every satellite ever flown rejects 100% of its heat this way.
Starlink used the satellite chassis itself as the radiator...
Chips are dense but relatively light to antennas, and so the ODC AI satellite payload is far smaller than Starlink (see in the image), so you can spend loads of extra mass on more solar, of course, but also large deployable, double-sided radiator panels with liquid cooling loop to carry heat off the chips.
The physics is settled and the engineering is already here today at a cutting edge level. The hard is building a frontier architecture for cheap at scale, which SpaceX has a track record with Starlink.
Hope this helps people.
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Starship is a step change difference (again) in cost to Orbit because of its size and full reusability.
Jun 11
The metric I keep coming back to for SpaceX is $/Mbps to orbit
Starlink exists because Falcon 9 dropped bandwidth deployment costs ~10x to ~$6.55/Mbps. That’s about to drop again to just $0.30/Mbps because of Starship.
A business that is doubling users annually with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin is about to cut their biggest cost by 95%… It really seems like people don't understand the implications of this.
The math assumes a reusable Falcon 9 launch is 17 tonnes at $1,000/kg and 2,600 Gbps per launch. Starship is targeting 100 tonnes at under $185/kg and 61,000 Gbps per launch. That's $17M for 2,600 Gbps ($6.55/Mbps) verse $18.5M for 61,000 Gbps ($0.30/Mbps).
Starship's additional volume allows for larger satellites, enabling simultaneous gains on multiple cost curves. The math suggests V3 satellites are ~600 Mbps/kg vs ~150 Mbps/kg from V2 mini.
Combining the 4x improvement on satellite bandwidth density with a 5x improvement in launch gets you the 20x improvement to 30 cents per Mbps to orbit.
These are fairly conservative assumptions because launch probably comes in even lower as Starship ramps, and satellite improvements probably keep coming. At $0.10 / Mbps, $1 billion spend on launch represents 10,000 Tbps or about 15x the bandwidth of Starlink's constellation today.
$1B is 90 days of operating income for Starlink... at it's current scale...
Yeah, I really don't think people are getting this. Starlink is the internet now.
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Orbital compute will be cheaper than terrestrial compute by a factor of 3! At minimum.
Jun 10
Full interview with @shaunmmaguire of @sequoia on @SpaceX IPO.
"Orbital compute will be the lowest cost provider of inference compute by at least a factor of three over large scale terrestrial compute. As we've learned in any commodity industry, if you're the lowest cost provider, you are going to crush."
We discuss:
- the growth trajectory and why retail will likely understand this company better than Wall Street does.
- Starship and why it's more technically derisked than the public realizes
- orbital compute, an inevitability
- thermal engineering advantages
- his view on why meaningful launch competition is at least a decade away
- why Starlink and direct-to-cell will make SpaceX the world's lowest-cost broadband and mobile provider
👇
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Jun 10
SpaceX may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions
What could they mean by that? 🤔
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Jun 9
Study the pictures below published by @SawyerMerritt - what is happening in Bastrop is mind blowing. I have been to Bastrop to marvel at the huge scale of the Starlink terminal factory there. It now appears that this factory is to be completely outscaled by not one, but three massive factories that will manufacture the solar cells and orbital compute satellites. You can't comprehend what's happening in Bastrop without seeing it at ground level. It is emblematic of the revolution Elon is leading in re-industrialization of the United States. We are in a whole new industrial era.
Jun 9
Bastrop, Texas will soon become home to one of the largest solar cell and wafer production facilities in North America with @SpaceX's new investments in the area, creating thousands of jobs.
The solar facility is already under construction, and the AI sat facility is expected to start initial production by the end of 2027.
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Watch @ElonMusk provide a technical update on SpaceX’s capability to manufacture, launch, and operate AI satellites at scale → spacexipo.com
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Once voting is this fraudulent, they can get whatever outcome they want, making a sham of democracy
Let me get this straight
> nearly every major democracy restricts mail in voting
> they also require real, government issued ID
> mail in votes (with no confirmation of citizenship during registration) switched the CA election
> thus election in CA is one of the most insecure processes in the developed world
There’s no question that fraud happened. It’s statistically certain
The only question is whether CA can vote itself out of this mess, or if it’s already too far gone
When is enough enough?
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Jun 7
SpaceX pace is unmatched. Been fortunate to witness it first hand. Every person top to bottom is an extremely high achiever. Every time I visit I leave inspired and tell myself I need to work harder.
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Jun 7
It takes a conspiracy theorist
To believe California’s election is secure
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Worth watching on SpaceX. Well done Mach33 @aaronburnett @VladSaigau
Jun 7
THIS is the best analysis I have yet seen on the SpaceX company! Mach33 and it's team do outstanding analysis, and Herbert and I drill deep into it with the help of Aaron Burnett of Mach33. youtube.com/watch?v=bc_Oi8tt…
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