Charts of the month "2025 year end" gregtheanalyst.com/?p=12800

$STRC - I hope that's the end of another ponzi digital credit vehicle... Just like all others by MSTR...

$MAGS - situation is now really bad once this black line is resistance

Watch China, watch oil ... watch how China starts exporting deflation exactly when US02Y retested (M)MA50 on uninverted yield-curve :

$FXI and its 42$ last secular bear market rally : US has an offset ~3Qs to China. Chinese bounce has ended in 4Q25. No China = No USA with 3Qs lag. Lag calculation is taken from this post : x.com/Analyst_G/status/20593… While many thinks it's US that dictates the rules, I say : it's China that dictates the rules. Especially since 2021. China leads the economic cycle and is always in front of everybody. Oil is China, not SoH and not Iran.

Record…

US stock market won’t be able to hold gains while Yuan drops ($USDCNH up)

I am really curious how many people understands why oil keeps dropping, and why the reason it drops outperforms SoH removed supply.

“The economy is hurt when oil goes up, but the real damage from that situation generally shows up after oil prices peak. That’s true for the market and it’s true for the economy.” 👇🏼 - @jimwpaulsen

Recession in Chinese domestic demand is further confirmed: May retail sales growth -0.6% versus 0% expected. May fixed asset investment growth -4.1% versus -2% expected. The entire Chinese economy is now being carried by exports, of which over 50% are essentially driven by the ongoing AI build-out in the US. China’s economic imbalance has reached an extreme, indicating rising odds of a significant policy intervention.

This is your SoH offset. So far China > SoH.

And $USDJPY is still 160…

SNDK (M)RSI = 99.18 ... take a look from the opposite side. (M)RSI = 0.82

OIL/GOLD - we'll see it at the end of the month, but if it's just a retest to (M)MA20 - it's still high momentum bear market for oil vs gold. Risk that we're going to see new ATL in this ratio increasing...

Considering all those retests, all your eyes I would put into 2 F/X pairs 1/ $USDJPY and possible 160 break 2/ $AUDUSD and its (3M)MA50 limiter = 0.725 AUDUSD is your new risk on/off. AUDUSD down = stock market down. After long observation I think pairs like USDJPY or USDKRW start reflecting ... demographic collapse finally. Trust in bond market has gone and in currency too under this economic power.

And look on OIL. Again : it's not about SoH and deficits, it's all about IMO economic collapse. Market gets it wrong that oil comes down because of a "ceasefire" $USO is now more reliable indicator than all those futures. So USO hits (M)MA200 just like ... SPX/GOLD hits (M)MA200 & (3M)MA200, same as DAX/GOLD retested 1980-2011 trend & DJI/GOLD, same as DJI/SILVER retested 1930 resistance and the moment US02Y rejected (M)MA50 ... I can give you way more examples. It's not a random move. If 4Q18 will become a resistance (that's DJI/GOLD cyclical peak), you know it's just the beginning. For the global economy it would be MUCH better if oil will go towards 150$ - why? Because that means economy can handle it, rejecting 120$ level you know economy can't handle it and probably the damage has been put somewhere in the structure we have no idea exactly where. While there was a risk of 150$ spike, my theory said it's less possible than max 120$ due to all those technical retests.

Take a look on DAX/GOLD & $EURUSD ... you see the similarities? US02Y retest isn't the only chart in town. DJI/GOLD is also very very close to retest same 1980-2011 trend line as it broke its (3M)MA200 and (M)MA200 long time ago. Is the correction stocks/gold in general over and we're going to see a massive outperformance of gold vs stock from now? Very possible.

😂

And we rejected so far both (W)MA200 and (M)MA50 on US02Y and oil is 80$ because it follows yields and yields follow economic reality. We might go down here in yields after retest or consolidate again. Let’s see what scenario the market is going to print. My thesis : The biggest crashes happen when market breaks (W)MA200 & (M)MA50 retest it from the bottom and fail. That’s how each economic crash occured once yield curve uninverted the same time, but not all had a chance to retest those 2 key MA levels.

And US agreed for toll fees. Hard to believe…