کاپ۲۶ کربن‌صفر شدن یعنی چه؟ نقش دی‌اکسیدکربن در تغییرات اقلیمی چیست؟ سیاوش ارلان گزارش می‌دهد

a) It’s ‘Piers’. b) I knew you’d bottle it, Warmonger. All mouth and no trousers, as we say back home. c) On your little-watched show tonight you raged at President Trump for wanting to end the Iran war, and urged him to keep bombing. Did Netanyahu tell you to say that?

We are closer to a peace deal than ever before. With finalisation likely expected in the next 24 hours, Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week. We would like to thank United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran for their ongoing commitment during the negotiations, and we extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in the region for their support. We are confident that this historic peace deal will form a strong foundation for lasting peace. @realDonaldTrump @JDVance @SecRubio @SteveWitkoff @SEPeaceMissions @drpezeshkian @araghchi

جزئیات پیش‌نویس تفاهمنامه ۱۴ ماده‌ای ایران و آمریکا یعنی ۱- بازشدن #تنگه‌هرمز در قدم اول. یعنی حل مشکلات اقتصادی و سیاسی ترامپ. کشورها معمولا مهم‌ترین اهرم قدرت خود را در قدم اول به طرف مقابل تقدیم نمی‌کنند. ۲- بعد از باز شدن تنگه هرمز و کاهش قیمت نفت: ذخایر نفتی آمریکا دوباره پر می‌شود. و در فرصت ایجاد شده سامانه‌های نظامی آمریکا و اسرائیل ترمیم و بازسازی می‌شوند. ۳- این یعنی تکرار چرخه حمله، آتش­‌بس، مذاکره، حمله. دشمنی افرادی که رهبر معظم انقلاب اسلامی را شهید کردند علیه ایران کم نشده. پیدا کردن بهانه برای خروج از تفاهمنامه برای ترامپ کار مشکلی نیست. ترامپ نباید بتواند ادعا کند که هزینه حمله نظامی دوم به ایران قابل تحمل بوده. آمریکا و اسرائیل با استفاده از این فرصت تنفسی، خود را برای حملات بعدی آماده خواهند کرد. طراحی برای کودتای دوم نیز در دستور کار است. ۴- تحریم‌های اصلی علیه ایران تحریم‌های کنگره‌ است، نه تحریم‌های قوه مجریه. به این ترتیب ترامپ با عنوان اینکه نمی‌تواند کنگره‌ را مجبور به برداشتن تحریم‌ها کند دبه خواهد کرد. ۵- از سال ۲۰۱۵ هر توافقی با ایران ذیل قانون اینارا نیاز به رأی مثبت کنگره دارد. با توجه به نفوذ لابی اسرائیل، کنگره‌ به برداشته شدن تحریم‌ها علیه ایران رأی مثبت نخواهد داد. نفوذ نتانیاهو در بین نماینده‌های دمکرات و جمهوری‌خواه بیشتر از ترامپ است. راه‌حل: ۱- لطفا این تفاهمنامه را امضا نکنید. ۲- لطفا لیستی از تأسیسات آب‌شیرین‌کن و تأسیسات نفتی هدف ایران در منطقه منتشر کنید. در صورت حمله مجدد به ایران، این تأسیسات باید به گونه‌ای تخریب شوند که بازسازی آنها حداقل دو سال زمان ببرد. تخریب محدود بازدارندگی لازم را ایجاد نمی‌کند. ترامپ به تخریب محدود این تأسیسات به عنوان پروژه بازسازی برای شرکت‌های آمریکایی نگاه می‌کند. اما تخریب گسترده قیمت‌های جهانی نفت و گاز را برای حداقل دو سال بالا نگه می‌دارد و بازدارندگی لازم را ایجاد می‌کند. مسیرهای جایگزین تنگه هرمز باید در اولویت اهداف ایران باشد. ۳- لطفا تنگه هرمز را برای حداقل دو ماه دیگر باز نکنید. در سه ماه گذشته ایران بیش از ۳۰ میلیارد دلار نفت فروخته، این مبلغ برای مدیریت اقتصادی دو ماه آینده کافی است. ۴- لطفا دریافت عوارض از تنگه هرمز را فراموش نکنید. بر اساس برآوردهای بین‌المللی عوارض حاصل از تنگه هرمز می‌تواند بیشتر از دو برابر فروش نفت باشد. بخشی از راه حل مشکلات اقتصادی کشور همین است، نه در توهم رفع تحریم‌ها ماندن. mehrnews.com/x3cjcs

New U.S. Strikes on #Iran: Coercive Diplomacy or A New Round of War? 🔹By now, it has become clear that coercive diplomacy is not the reason – or at least not the only reason – behind the repeated U.S. strikes on southern Iran. The choice of the targets, together with the political signaling accompanying them, suggests that there is an attempt to erode Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and open the strait through military means. 🔹On the one hand, the strikes over the past week, especially in the past two days, have been concentrated on Iranian air defense systems, command-and-control centers, facilities related to the Iranian Navy’s drone operations, and radar systems. 🔹On the other hand, Donald Trump admitted openly for the first time that the United States has been helping ships pass through the strait over the past month and has thereby contributed to increasing the flow of oil to global markets. 🔹Taken together, these developments suggest that the Trump administration wants, on the one hand, to operationally weaken Iran’s ability to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and, on the other hand, to signal at the highest political level that the security situation around the strait is improving, thereby reassuring shipping companies. 🔹At the same time, it has become clear that the Iranian responses, in the form of targeting U.S. bases around the Persian Gulf, have not had any meaningful deterrent effect vis-à-vis the United States. Rather, the United States appears to have calculated that the benefits of continuing these strikes outweigh the costs. 🔹This has led to different conclusions and proposals within Iran’s strategic community. On the one hand, there are criticisms that Tehran has become too cautious and too predictable in its response to the United States. This, critics argue, has allowed the adversary to make a reliable assessment of the costs and benefits of escalation and to confidently plan its targeting of Iranian territory. 🔹The suggestion is that Iran needs to become more risk-taking and less predictable in its responses by, on the one hand, acting directly against the U.S. naval presence in the region and its warships and, on the other hand, targeting energy infrastructure in the region so that Trump’s strategy of reassuring the energy markets will not succeed. 🔹 On the other hand, there are warnings that these developments may be part of a broader pattern of preparations for a new large-scale war coordinated between the United States and Israel. The argument is that, just as the United States has concentrated on targeting Iranian air defense systems and radar installations in the south, Israel, in its latest strikes, targeted the same types of facilities in central Iran. Together, they may be weakening Iran’s defenses in order to secure a free hand in a new round of large-scale war. 🔹Overall, this is why the ceasefire, which has now been reduced to little more than a name, appears not to have brought any meaningful benefits for Tehran, and the process of rethinking the country’s strategic options seems already to be underway.

Neither threats nor a U.S. military strike are likely to move Iran from its current position, especially when Tehran views Washington as inconsistent and unreliable in its commitments. A return to a broader military confrontation would make a diplomatic agreement less likely, not more. From the Iranian perspective, recent actions in the maritime domain are already being interpreted as violations of the ceasefire framework. One can certainly be frustrated with Iran's position. But if the objective was to reach an agreement, it would have been wiser to keep alive figures such as Ali Khamenei, the ultimate decision-maker, and Ali Larijani, who historically played an important role in bridging gaps between the parties. If the purpose was to topple the regime, why negotiating with them? The current situation is the direct result of profound mistrust on both sides, combined with a growing recognition that the status quo is unsustainable. Without an agreement in the near future, further escalation is likely. Yet escalation by itself is unlikely to produce meaningful Iranian concessions. The bottom line is that no military operation, whether limited or extensive, short or prolonged, is likely to compel Iran to accept a deal in the US terms. More likely, an Iranian response would push the parties even further away from diplomacy. That is the reality facing the administration today. If President Trump genuinely wants a deal, he will have to engage with at least some of Iran's core demands. If he is unwilling to do so, then he should be prepared for a prolonged confrontation rather than a negotiated settlement. #IranWar‌

U.S. Central Command forces began launching additional self-defense strikes today at 5:15 p.m. ET against multiple targets in Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.

NEW: President Trump tells me he "may keep going" with strikes against Iran and is getting closer to targeting Iranian power plants and bridges. The President also spoke about the U.S. military helicopter that was downed saying that an Iranian drone lodged between the two pilots. The drone was on fire, but didn't explode, according to President Trump.