Nearly every negative prediction on the impact of automation gets proven wrong over time.
We spend all our time looking at today’s economy and imagine automation only being applied to how we work today and net reducing work for people. What actually happens, in almost every instance, is we use that automation to do *more* than we did before, which creates a new set of jobs and work.
What we ultimately get as a society is better use of our time, new medical advances, better safety, lower cost offerings in nearly every category of product and service, and economic opportunity for more people.
AI will largely be used to reallocate people from spending time on less strategic work to more strategic areas in every company and throughout the economy.
It’s economically valuable to have software engineers building features for new problems for customers; it’s less economically valuable to have most of their time going into fixing bugs and maintaining legacy codebases. AI lets us improve this ratio. This doesn’t reduce the need for software engineering, it increases what you can now do with those resources. And the same analogy will hold for the majority of forms of knowledge work today.
And, for the companies that temporarily use AI just for profit maximization, they will ultimately lose out to the companies that use AI to better serve customers (in the form of lower cost to the customer or better quality products). The market is quite good at ensuring this.
This isn’t to say we shouldn’t be doing anything at all. But the things we should be doing are what we always should have been doing to make the economy work better for people: lower the cost of housing, improve education and make it cheaper, make it far easier to build so we can create more jobs here, lower the cost of healthcare, and so on.
Coincidentally AI will help with some of this, but what this is where we should be applying most of our regulatory energy.